| Author | Message | |||
| ross koller (Ross)
Member Username: Ross Post Number: 269 Registered: 3-2002 |
don't know what the current daily figure is but if you look at the past production as an indication of what the lines put out, the 456gt was made 1936 times over the 4 years until the m came along. so very roughly speaking that corresponds to 484/year...... the total of 550's made between 1997 and 2000 (doesn't say whether thats jan 1 or dec 31st) was 2625, so that can either be 583 or 750/yr.... so looks like they make more 550's than 456's. all this very rough sorry. | |||
| Mr. Doody (Doody)
Member Username: Doody Post Number: 442 Registered: 11-2001 |
well, i think my analysis (for what it was), had a major error. i assumed that all 12 cylinders coming from the factory were maranellos. obviously this isn't the case and the 456 is built on the same line. i have NO clue what the ratio of 456 -vs- 550 production is, but if it's on the order of 1 to 3 (25%) then the net percentages in my table end up on par for all three models (355, 550, 360). so.... never mind ;-) sorry. doody! | |||
| Mr. Doody (Doody)
Member Username: Doody Post Number: 438 Registered: 11-2001 |
manu - Sant'Agata is geared to produce 400 Murcielagos per year. i don't know whether they run at that level (i've heard low 300s). the V10 L140 "baby lambo" is purportedly going to be produceable at a rate of 1,300 per year and priced at about $170K. rumors are that once L140 production starts up, Murciegalo production might ramp down a bit to closer to 300. fwiw - all rumors. doody. | |||
| Manu Sachdeva (Manu)
Member Username: Manu Post Number: 419 Registered: 2-2002 |
Robert - I partially disagree. There is little doubt that Ferrari semi-cannibalised their own sales of the 550 with the introduction of the 360M. BUT IMO : the 360 does NOT look better and it could be argued that by giving away 4 cylinders to the 550 it is the 360 which is NOT as exotic in character at all. In the 550M market segment there is ONE other GT - the Vanquish which has two Ford V6s glued together in the bonnet and electric window switches from the Ford Fiesta I used to drive as a penniless 17 year old. The 360 is an "it" car - the latest, the coolest, the hottest Ferrari (exclude the Enzo) - In fact the Spyder is all this magnified. The effective re-release of the 550 in 575M guise will go a little way to changing this. The "latest" Ferrari the trendy set now have to buy is the 575M F1. All the same - the worldwide mkt for �165,000 cars is tiny compared to the mkt for �100,000 cars - both sets of owners have to be undeniably wealthy (lets face facts) but the extra �65K for the V12 gets rid of a lot of people who just cannot justify THAT much money for the bigger car. (At a guess Lamborghini have probably NEVER built more than 300 V12 cars a year). So come re-sale the 550 have to slide to at least 360 levels to sell - furthermore, they are likely to be older than the 360 (and hence a little less "fashionable") and MAY have more mileage. In addition the greater V12 running costs mean that they slide well beyond the 360 levels before they can sell on....... hence IMO the falling values. I'm not winding anyone up but I think the 550M is a substantially better car than the 360.... but then you all know this anyway. Cue Flaming....  | |||
| TomD (Tifosi)
Intermediate Member Username: Tifosi Post Number: 1236 Registered: 9-2001 |
don't get frank started on his feelings for the 360 - | |||
| Rob Lay (Rob328gts)
Board Administrator Username: Rob328gts Post Number: 2060 Registered: 12-2000 |
Has Ferrari finally raised it's prices and production to a point that the 5 year depreciation rate is similar to other Makes? I think 40-50% resale at 5 years is standard for other makes. | |||
| robert di meglio (Robdimeglio)
New member Username: Robdimeglio Post Number: 8 Registered: 3-2002 |
Ross, I agree with you reguarding maranello prices. Let's face it, there are quite a few GT type cars available in this market segment, and as 550's age I don't see them fetching premium dollars. I predict continued depreciation to about half of original MSRP ($220K). Frank, I don't completely agree with your assessment of the 550. There are several reasons why the 360 continues to be more sought after in the marketplace: 1. the 360 looks better and has a more exotic character, which many F car buyers like. 2. the 360 is much lighter and feels more like a race car for the street. It has more than ample power for street use. 3. the 360 sounds better in stock form. 4. the costs of 360 ownership are probably less, assuming you don't pay way over sticker to begin with. Maintenance on all F cars costs too much, but I would surmise that the 550 would cost more than the 360. Despite the above, I too think that the 550 is a great car. I just would not want to pay more than $125K or so. | |||
| Rob Lay (Rob328gts)
Board Administrator Username: Rob328gts Post Number: 2054 Registered: 12-2000 |
Sometimes taking a loss now is the profitable thing to do. Sell the cars for what you can and use the capital to stock your inventory at current wholesale prices. You could turn over your new inventory 5 times at profit before you could maybe even sale that old inventory at those prices. | |||
| Bill Sawyer (Wsawyer)
Member Username: Wsawyer Post Number: 451 Registered: 2-2002 |
Doody: I've never bought a car from her, but my interactions with Nancy over at Cauley have all been positive, and others on this board have had good things to say about her as well. Maybe you just ran into her on a bad day. She's only been selling for a while, and was probably mouthing the company line. That said, there seems to be a real stubborness about the dealership. Prices are high, take it or leave it, we'd rather have the same car on the floor a year from now than sell it at that price, etc. Their 550 prices reflect what they paid for these cars when the market was stronger. Take the loss and run! I can't understand a dealer that doesn't do a much needed major service BEFORE they put the car on the showroom floor. If you pay the asking price for the 355 Spider and then have the service done, you have enough in the car to buy a 360 Berlinetta. Their 360 prices seem more in line with current prices at other dealerships. But what do you make of a 348 Spider priced at $94 K? | |||
| ross koller (Ross)
Member Username: Ross Post Number: 265 Registered: 3-2002 |
doody, this harkens back to the 'cheap bastard' thread of a few months ago.....but i think we will see 550's at or below $100k within 6 months. and i am not just aiming that comment at 97's with high mileage. i think the general market is being flooded with all sorts of 12 cylinder exotica, and the 575 is one of them. add to that, the fact that the economy is still iffy, and i think you will find the audience with $150k for a used car will be pretty small. that being said, i do agree with your assessment that once the 550's have all changed hands at around this lower level, they will eventually rise in price over the following 5-10 years. some of this is due to the (unfortunate) fact that the 575 without the performance package will disappoint the enthusiasts and therefore not be as sought after. and again that the economy will be cycling back on the upswing, which will widen the audience for thoroughbred cars again. | |||
| Mr. Doody (Doody)
Member Username: Doody Post Number: 437 Registered: 11-2001 |
horsefly - it's the age, not the miles. but, yes, it is absolutely insane :-) that said, i've never seen a drug den full of heroin addicts whining about the cost of needles ;-) you don't have to do the engine-out at 5 years, but if the belts start giving up the ghost it'll cost like you're passing a kidney stone. doody. | |||
| Horsefly (Arlie)
Junior Member Username: Arlie Post Number: 196 Registered: 5-2002 |
A car with only 8,000 miles on the odometer and it's already time for the entire engine to be removed for service? Call me crazy, but does anybody else think that's insane for a piece of property costing over $100,000? Perhaps that is the nature of the beast, but even if I HAD that kind of money, I would buy another beast! | |||
| Tenney (Tenney)
Junior Member Username: Tenney Post Number: 221 Registered: 2-2001 |
A 30-40k mile '97 550 (celebrity-free) might be a 100k car today. Especially if it's yours and you decide wholesaling it makes sense. 150k seems right for a good car w/under 5k and maybe some warranty left. Wouldn't be surprised if the next two-seat 12 sounds better. I think the current eight has the edge in this category. | |||
| Mr. Doody (Doody)
Member Username: Doody Post Number: 436 Registered: 11-2001 |
wmhart - i agree that that would be an interesting analysis, but i don't have THAT much time on my hands just right now ;-) :-) wsawyer - i totally didn't grok cauley. i talked to one salesguy there and he was personable and helpful and informative. i talked to a saleswoman there at the end of my search and she was downright unhelpful and borderline surly. and neither of them were willing to budge on the price of the car. that's a march 1997 build car with 8,000 miles with three previous owners. it's due for its first engine-out, which it had not had and wasn't included in the price. the tires were two-thirds worn. you can get a 3K miles late 1999 car with near-new tires, all services current, one-owner, full-records, perfect condition car for that price or less now. sheesh. doody! | |||
| Andrew Menasce (Amenasce)
Junior Member Username: Amenasce Post Number: 214 Registered: 10-2001 |
419 000 $ for a BPF !! thats nuts ! you can get one for 220 000$ @ carclassic.com,ok its an euro version but still ! http://www.carclassic.com/html/DA10.htm | |||
| Bill Sawyer (Wsawyer)
Member Username: Wsawyer Post Number: 447 Registered: 2-2002 |
Cauley Ferrari is known for very high prices, as I think Doody found out while looking for his 355 Spider (btw, they still have it and are still asking $139.5!). Here are their asking prices as of last weekend: 97 550 Maranello, 10,300 miles, celebrity owned (woo-hoo!)--$171,500 98 550 Maranello, 9,000 miles--$185,000 2000 550 Maranello, 8,000 miles--$192,500 550 Barchetta, 515 miles--$419,000 95 456 GT, 12,000 miles--$120,000 From the looks of things they'll have these cars for a long time to come! | |||
| wm hart (Whart)
Member Username: Whart Post Number: 500 Registered: 12-2001 |
If i had to place some bets on pricing of these cars, my guess would be that you'll see the early ones, with some mileage get to the 100k dollar mark sooner than you think. Good straight low mileage cars, of later vintage are now 150k dollars,so a 97 with some mileage within a year will be, what, an 8 year old 12 cyl car, competing with newer iterations of the same model, which presumably will have lower mileage, and will still be cheaper, a year from now, than today. Only problem with waiting, you ain't driving it now!Doody: interesting analysis would be percentage reduction in market price by age and/or by mileage. | |||
| Mr. Doody (Doody)
Member Username: Doody Post Number: 434 Registered: 11-2001 |
frank - how long do you think to $100K? i think that's years off, still. my feeling is that they're going to bottom out somewhere and then bounce up again for a while before they start a "normal" decline. the problem right now is that the market isn't at an equilibrium state. there are too many 550s on the market at prices that are too high for the potential buyers. once that magical point though gets hit (ie: the prices keep falling to whatever $X is) you're going to see these cars suddenly get snarfed up and then there won't be enough supply. prices will start to rise for a while until the Maranello is replaced IMO (2005? 2006?). i get the fuzzy feeling that X is well above $100K though. i think we won't see Maranellos below $100K until a year or so after the next 12 cylinder model is released, if not even a few years longer. very curious to hear opinions though!!! doody. | |||
| Frank Parker (Parkerfe)
Intermediate Member Username: Parkerfe Post Number: 1306 Registered: 9-2001 |
As far as value is concerned, in the long haul 12 cylinder Ferraris have always beat out the 8 cylinder cars with only a few exceptions. As far as sound and mechanical superiority goes, the 12 cylinders always win out. While I currently have a V8 model, my next purchase is a 550 once they get to $100k or so. | |||
| Mr. Doody (Doody)
Member Username: Doody Post Number: 431 Registered: 11-2001 |
[Yes, I had some time on my hands today.] Below is a list of the number of cars for sale listed on the FNA site for the 355, Maranello, and 360 models. 360 Modena 46 Maranello 38 F355 81 Based on certain assumptions based on various data posted in this forum and elsewhere (cf. below), I slapped together a spreadsheet (see attached PDF) that shows the total US production and the "listing rate" for each model. The 550 is well below the 355 and 360 rates, but the prices still keep falling. This is a bit counter-intuitive IMO. Assumptions: * 2,500 8 cylinder cars/year * 1,664 12 cylinder cars/year (the factory makes 12 8 cylinder cars per day -vs- 8 12 cylinder cars per day) * NA gets 25% of production * All FNA listed cars are NA cars * 07/02 production cars have been delivered This says that a given 360 has a 40% higher chance of being on the market than a given 550. Maranellos have been in production for ~5.5 model years. Modenas have been in production for ~3.0 model years. Total NA Modenas will over total NA Maranellos at about the end of this year. I'm not drawing any conclusions per se, just thought I'd toss the data out there for discussion. Doody
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