| Author |
Message |
Dave Wapinski (Davewapinski)
Junior Member
Username: Davewapinski
Post Number: 214
Registered: 8-2001
| | Posted on Saturday, June 15, 2002 - 12:38 pm: | |
From what I have read, it has not been that long that 308 prices were bid up by speculators to $80,000 and above.
If you had bought a 308 for $80,000 and stored it, would you want to sell it now for $25,000?
When some dot com prices went from $80 to 80 cents, people had to face it.
Hope springs eternal. The editor of FML has said in print that most of the dealers are running the same ad for the same cars month after month. At some point the carrying costs will force a sale and the truth will have to be faced.
There will always be a few sold at inflated prices, but the large inventory shows that inflated prices will no longer work for the vast majority of Ferraris. We are talking about cars that thousands were made, not 50.
I have only been following FML Asking Prices for a few months. Summer/Spring should be when the prices are going up. Yet FML shows falling prices on all Ferraris except for a few models - this has held true for several months.
Prices for spiders are starting to fall faster at a time when they should be going up.
How do they look up close? Do not have enough informtion. However, the few that I know about have been fine. Of course, buyer has to be careful.
This of course creates opportunities for people who love them and want to drive them, vs the investors.
Dave |
Horsefly (Arlie)
New member
Username: Arlie
Post Number: 21
Registered: 5-2002
| | Posted on Friday, June 14, 2002 - 6:58 pm: | |
Dave seems to see the same thing I questioned about a while back. In reference to 308s, the dream world asking prices don't match the real world selling prices. I wonder what these cars look like up close? |
Robert McNair (Rrm)
Junior Member
Username: Rrm
Post Number: 72
Registered: 5-2002
| | Posted on Friday, June 14, 2002 - 5:24 pm: | |
IMO the V8 cars move down in an age cycle. The 308 has been leveled out for years the 328 is still coming down but almost leveled out the 348 will come down another 20-25% then the 355 will come down about 35-40%. The key factor however is time our economy is not going anywhere so take your time and choose the model that you want prices will not skyrocket anytime soon. Don't get pressured into a purchase. |
Dave Wapinski (Davewapinski)
Junior Member
Username: Davewapinski
Post Number: 212
Registered: 8-2001
| | Posted on Friday, June 14, 2002 - 5:23 pm: | |
Martin.
I agree with you on this.
I agree there will always be a market. There is the name and they are more beautiful than other cars. They are also more of a thrill to drive.
Recently on e-Bay there was a 308 Si. Seller had put $25,000 in it recently. Sold for $20,000. I have seen others that appear to be good sell for $20,000 to $25,000. The maintenance costs for the older cars are of course increasing. I think we are going to see more 308s sell in the $20,000 to $25,000 range. At some point the above advantages will keep it from going lower.
The 360 and later models should keep downward pressure on the 355/348/328 prices. They can only go so low because of the 308 prices and desirability. How much difference will there be - do not know.
Dave |
Martin (Miami348ts)
Intermediate Member
Username: Miami348ts
Post Number: 2258
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Friday, June 14, 2002 - 3:53 pm: | |
I do not see any competition for Ferrari ever. The history and myth of the word in itself is so good, BMW will never achieve that, even if they win Formular One for the next 20 years. There is something special about Ferrari, Rolls Royce, Harley Davidson. A passion that is provoced by mentioning the word alone.
There will alwas be a desire to own one of these machines. That means there will always be a market.
If the US is bad and Europe is good, cars will be exported back to Europe.
Hopefully we will not have a hype as we did for the DotCom area. |
Dave Wapinski (Davewapinski)
Junior Member
Username: Davewapinski
Post Number: 210
Registered: 8-2001
| | Posted on Friday, June 14, 2002 - 3:35 pm: | |
The current recovery is a very sllooowwwwwwww one.
I cannot see many people investing in things like a Ferrari for a long time, definitely never again like the 1980s. Like the dot com bubble, that time is gone forever.
I think they will definitely continue to drift down, the only debate is the rate.
Looking at the economy, I would think they would drift down for at least two years, maybe forever (but at a much smaller rate) except for a few cars like the F40, F50, early F, etc.
What is there to stop the drift??? New, better, and more desireable Ferraris are coming out all the time. The 360 is helping to drive down the 355 prices. The maintenance costs of older cars are increasing. The market is limited. Ferrari has more competition and the competition is better than before. |
Martin (Miami348ts)
Intermediate Member
Username: Miami348ts
Post Number: 2256
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Friday, June 14, 2002 - 3:23 pm: | |
Dave,
sorry but I can not see that. This deal out of AZ on the Spider was a great deal. I see that what sells on eBay has to be the deal of the century in order for that to go through on a Ferrari, because otherwise people just do not deal with the possibility of a dull for the regular price.
348 Spiders are right now selling in the mid to low 70s.
Your depreciation table is kind of assuming. I do not see the 348 Spider selling for less than $ 60 in a year from now. With that you would assume there is bo bottom value to these cars, which we knw is not true. With the same rtate applied to the Testarossa, you should be able to buy a Testarossa in a year for $ 30K and two years from now for as much as you can buy a 308GT4 Dino today.
|
Dave328GTB (Hardtop)
Junior Member
Username: Hardtop
Post Number: 166
Registered: 1-2002
| | Posted on Friday, June 14, 2002 - 3:12 pm: | |
Dave,
The FML market index is not the most accurate thing going, also has considerable fluctuation just from issue to issue, so it's hard to make precise percentage predictions based on one issue. Even there, it looks like most cars after 1975 have been pretty stable pricewise. It's clear the 348 spyders are lower than a couple of years ago, but they are the newest and, therefore, last to come down.
However, I can see where falling 355 prices could push the earlier cars down. 95-97 GTB's are clearly under 100K now and still lots for sale. If they should fall say to 75K, I would think that would be bad for late 328, 348, TR and 512 prices. Economic factors will play a big role in what happens pricewise. A booming economy could lift them all, however, I think it's more likely that everything after 1985 will drift lower.
Of course, this is all idle speculation.
Dave |
Dave Wapinski (Davewapinski)
Junior Member
Username: Davewapinski
Post Number: 208
Registered: 8-2001
| | Posted on Friday, June 14, 2002 - 12:36 pm: | |
Martin,
I would think that 348 Spiders and 348s having bottomed out is wishful thinking.
These are the latest numbers from the Ferrari Market Letter. As such, they are ASKING prices, not SELLING prices.
Current ASKING price for a 348 Spider: $76,442
Change from 6 months ago: -3.85 %
This works out to a yearly rate of -7.7 %
This works out to a decline of about $5,886.03 a year going forward.
ASKING price 6 months ago: $79,503
ASKING price 1 year ago: $81,601
This is a decline of -6.32%
ASKING price 2 years ago: $82,324
This is a decline of -7.14%.
The yearly rate of decline for the past 6 months is greater than the other declines in asking prices.
So it seems the depreciation rate is increasing.
It is true that most Ferraris are NOT selling.
It seems that 348 Spiders were selling for about $70,000 or more 6 to 8 months ago.
What are the few that are being sold sell at?
http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&mfcisapicommand=ViewItem&item=1825580936
It sure looks like 348 Spiders are really selling for around $65,000.
With increasing depreciation and nothing in the World economy to slow it down, the numbers suggest that 348 Spiders will be selling for $60,000 or possible a little lower by years end.
These numbers suggest that a 348 Spider might be selling for around $50,000 in a year and a half.
Read the recent FML article about depreciation. |
Martin (Miami348ts)
Intermediate Member
Username: Miami348ts
Post Number: 2235
Registered: 5-2001
| | Posted on Friday, June 14, 2002 - 10:46 am: | |
Bob,
the 348 and the Testarossa (until 1992) have a frame that requires the engine to come out of the bottom. This means you need a lift to dronp the engine. The 308; 328 and the 512TR have a frame made so the engine can belifted out of the car.
Besides this, there is not much difference except the obvious. The 308/328s did not have as much electronics and computers on board. The TR has changed a lot over the years. Look at some examples in the engine bay from 1985 till 1991 and you will see some significant changes.
I do not see that the 348s can fall much more and actually see them stable since 2 years, when I bought mine. I bought a 1991 TS with 22K Miles for $56,000 and today with 38K Miles I should be getting $ 52,000 for my car.
The 348 Spiders have bottomed at $70,000 for the last year and are not moving.
I have a 348TS, 12/1990 for sale, as well as my car is up for sale (then I would keep the 348 Spider I have coming), otherwise I also have a 348 Spider, 1994 for sale.
www.4Ferrari.com
|
Bob McDunn (94nsx)
New member
Username: 94nsx
Post Number: 2
Registered: 6-2002
| | Posted on Friday, June 14, 2002 - 9:23 am: | |
Thanks for the replys guys. What I really want to buy is a 348, but I understand those are more difficult to work on (which actually doesn't bother me that much) and will most likely depreciate quite a bit in the next few years. Maybe a 308 or 328 would be a more sensible choice although they don't do it for me like the f-cars with the cheese grater doors.
|
ross koller (Ross)
Junior Member
Username: Ross
Post Number: 113
Registered: 3-2002
| | Posted on Friday, June 14, 2002 - 6:10 am: | |
at least in europe, i think they have. just had this conversation with a friend this morning. it all depends on where the 'stack' is currently priced in your market. for example, in the uk the 308 is stuck in the �20-25k range, the 328 in the �24-28k, the 348's in the �28-34k range, the 355's in the �40-45k range, the tr in the �40-45k range, and the 512tr in the �50-55k range. so as long as the bottom rungs don't give out, the whole stack stays where it is given the relationship of one to the other. now the 456gt is stuck around the �45-60k range, and probably can't come off too much more apart from compression within the years; the 456gtm is still much higher and will experience significant drop over the next 2-3 years. the 550 is settling into a bottom around �60k currently for the early examples, and i don't think will go lower than that in the stack; whereas the latest 550's will again fall significantly in the next 2-3 years.
all this is a long way of saying that the tr is probably a good buy now and you have the possibility of buying the best examples of that run at nearly the same price as the early high mirror ones; and then after a few years, inflation will catch up to the whole thing and you could keep it for years and not lose your principle.
by the way, you are not alone in not liking to take the depreciation hit, which is why i have thought about this so much and tend to buy cars in that lower part of the curve.... |
Tyler (Bahiaau)
Member
Username: Bahiaau
Post Number: 303
Registered: 12-2001
| | Posted on Thursday, June 13, 2002 - 9:24 pm: | |
Bob, lots of members here do their own maintenance. If you have the desire and equipment to do so you will find ample resources and help here. I think TR's are at good prices right now. Don't know if the market has bottomed out or not. I would focus more on finding an excellent example than trying to figure out which end of the price range it falls in. If you buy a great example and keep it a great example then you will have no trouble recouping a large portion of your money upon resale. Good luck with your search! |
Bob McDunn (94nsx)
New member
Username: 94nsx
Post Number: 1
Registered: 6-2002
| | Posted on Thursday, June 13, 2002 - 8:52 pm: | |
Hi all, I don't know much about F cars, but like so many have always dreamed of getting one. A lot of people call me cheap, because I never buy new cars. I know cars usually aren't investments, but it kills me to lose (in depreciation) money for no good reason. Anyway from looking through previous posts it seems that most people feel that the 308s and maybe the 328s have reached their bottom prices, and that the 348s have a little ways to go, how do you feel about the Testarossas? Also, is there any reason a do it yourselfer couldn't do major service on one?
Thanks |
|