| Author | Message | ||
| Mark (Markpdx)
Junior Member Username: Markpdx Post Number: 69 Registered: 4-2003 |
I thought it might be interesting to resurrect this thread and see where things are at. | ||
| jeff ryerson (Atheyg)
Junior Member Username: Atheyg Post Number: 215 Registered: 8-2002 |
I've done very well with some Index calls recently, I sold off at the 240 pt high Monday morning the market still is holding gains though a good sign No one is expecting a rally now or in the near future, puts are still at a big premium, expect the unexpected, maybe some sideways consolidation then a bit of a rally, not to say it would last for an extended time though My.000002 | ||
| James Glickenhaus (Napolis)
Member Username: Napolis Post Number: 959 Registered: 10-2002 |
Dave In these strange times QUALITY IS KEY! I agree with you about real estate. In London I fear it's worse. Best Jim | ||
| David R. (Rodsky)
New member Username: Rodsky Post Number: 10 Registered: 3-2003 |
Great Thread very informative. James I got out of treasuries and muni's in March - based on your prediction and similar thinking to yours. I also agree with your Dad that the stock market will take more time to recover than most people think. I will say that I dont do this for a living - but I transferred the money into Corporate bonds (high quality and short to intermediate term) while I try and understand where things are and what investments are undervalued and have some upside. I think real estate is headed for a bubble in certain markets e.g. California - where I am, with only low interest rates holding prices firm. | ||
| Martin - Cavallino Motors (Miami348ts)
Advanced Member Username: Miami348ts Post Number: 4284 Registered: 5-2001 |
One of the two of you will lose but Ferrari Chat members WIN either way!  | ||
| Martin - Cavallino Motors (Miami348ts)
Advanced Member Username: Miami348ts Post Number: 4283 Registered: 5-2001 |
I thought Mc Bain was the action hero in the Simpsons? So James are you a Simson Character? Kent Brockman? | ||
| DES (Sickspeed)
Advanced Member Username: Sickspeed Post Number: 3255 Registered: 8-2002 |
My funny feeling was right, then... Mr. G., you ever consider penning a book of your life's experiences or are the James Bond movies close enough that you don't want to get sued for copyright infringement...? Or is it the other way around, could you sue them for copyright infringement...? LOL... i can only imagine the things, the places, the events... | ||
| James Glickenhaus (Napolis)
Member Username: Napolis Post Number: 954 Registered: 10-2002 |
Des That was real. It happened during the filming of McBain starring Chris Walken. I still have the machete. Best Jim | ||
| DES (Sickspeed)
Advanced Member Username: Sickspeed Post Number: 3249 Registered: 8-2002 |
LMAO, James...! Is that a movie plot or a real-life experience...? Somehow, i've a funny feeling that it's a...... | ||
| ross koller (Ross)
Intermediate Member Username: Ross Post Number: 1026 Registered: 3-2002 |
limerock sounds like a great idea ! jim, yes vol is/was huge, front month wti was over 65% ! it wasn't even this big during the first gulf war. nothing like it ! | ||
| Kenny Herman (Kennyh)
Member Username: Kennyh Post Number: 753 Registered: 8-2001 |
The loser rents out Lime Rock for a FerrariChat.com Track Meet! | ||
| L. Wayne Ausbrooks (Lwausbrooks)
Intermediate Member Username: Lwausbrooks Post Number: 1356 Registered: 8-2002 |
WM, that would definitely be criminal and could possibly become obscene as well! | ||
| wm hart (Whart)
Member Username: Whart Post Number: 893 Registered: 12-2001 |
He has to loan DES his DuSEburg for a weekend. (Sorry, James)... | ||
| Jon P. Kofod (95f355c)
Member Username: 95f355c Post Number: 574 Registered: 8-2001 |
Jim, I have a great idea. If Art loses he has to vote for a Republican candidate in the next presidential election. Art, you'll have to take a video camera along in the booth and then post a copy of it on F chat to verify you actually punched the right button. I don't know enough about Jim to come up with one if he loses but I am sure some other F chatters can think of something. Regards, Jon | ||
| James Glickenhaus (Napolis)
Member Username: Napolis Post Number: 950 Registered: 10-2002 |
Art In the 35 days since I made my prediction Crude has fallen about 22%. Bonds (30 year Treas.) have fallen about 4.2% and the Dow is up about 6%. Your statement "We started this year above 8500," is not correct. As I explaned last friday on CNN/FN and as Ross and Jon have pointed out making longterm predictions in these times is very hard but I still believe that bonds, at this level are not a buy, crude will stay closer to 26 then 36 and over time well picked stocks and the econ will do better. This isn't a contest as Bob said: "It's the real thing." Whether or not you wish to admit it your prediction on 3/5 that the only predictions I made on that date would come to pass were that "The sun will rise and the sun will set" was wrong. | ||
| arthur chambers (Art355)
Intermediate Member Username: Art355 Post Number: 1243 Registered: 6-2001 |
James: Does that mean that you don't want to take my bet? Come on, think of something stupid, I'll do it if I lose. I get to pick what you'll do if you lose. Nothing criminial, or obscene, just stupid. Art | ||
| Horsefly (Arlie)
Member Username: Arlie Post Number: 963 Registered: 5-2002 |
Dave has an OFF-TOPIC alarm that he posts from time to time. Do we have a LEACH ALERT to post when people try to ride James' coat tails into the entertainment business? | ||
| Andrew Wanamaker (Androza)
New member Username: Androza Post Number: 13 Registered: 2-2003 |
How did you get into the entertainment industry to start with? And ya still got any contacts in there *smiles*? | ||
| James Glickenhaus (Napolis)
Member Username: Napolis Post Number: 949 Registered: 10-2002 |
Getting coked up actresses to come out of Winnebagos at 3 in the morning was a lot more fun when I was in my 20ies. One day I realized that what Dino Delaurentis once told me was true: "By the time you can get into to all the parties you won't want to go." That said it was fun and a wild ride and I'd be less than honest if I said: "Never Again..." | ||
| wm hart (Whart)
Member Username: Whart Post Number: 890 Registered: 12-2001 |
Gee, Jim, i didn't know you had a real job... | ||
| James Glickenhaus (Napolis)
Member Username: Napolis Post Number: 948 Registered: 10-2002 |
Des The phone rang. "Mr. Glickenhaus..." "Yes" "Sorry to wake you but a bomb is going to go off in your Hotel. Of course it's no where near your room but we've arranged another room for you accross town for the evening. There's a car waiting for you. This isn't directed at you or your crew." I still have the Machette he gave me as he delivered my son to our base in the jungle. "Please wear it with the handle visible if you go for a walk." I looked at the distinctively carved handle. "The Airforce is going to fly Jesse back to Manila in 10 days. Is that OK?" He looked over at the Huey with the holes from the small arms fire and smiled. "No Problem. One small favor. My cousin who was the airtraffic controller who diverted the JAL flight Loved 'The Exterminator'." I walked over to the tent and came up with a poster. "What's his name?" "JoJo" "Dear JoJo Best James" I wrote... | ||
| James Glickenhaus (Napolis)
Member Username: Napolis Post Number: 946 Registered: 10-2002 |
Ross I think (and hope) you're right. In my life time the price of memory has gone from $60 a unit to $3 for 256 million units. This has produced a profound change. There's more DRAM in my daughters CD player than in the vehicle that went to the moon. As Saddam found out this changes the rules. The volitility is however amazing. Crude from 36 to 28 in days. For the time being I think traders will do very well but I agree that it ain't over and that 5 years from now things will be better. Best Jim | ||
| ross koller (Ross)
Intermediate Member Username: Ross Post Number: 1021 Registered: 3-2002 |
jim, i agree with you. i think (hope) your father may be slightly pessimistic as to the length of the cycle. i too am involved in trading and have noticed over the last 10 years that the period of the cycles have been accelerating more and more, such that time from peak to trough back to peak has tended to be about half (sometimes only 25%) of what it was 10 years ago. i think a lot of it has to do with the speed at which information gets disseminated and therefore digested, but there is also a change in people attitudes. all this to say, that we do have a binge bubble to chew through, but now that a great chunk of uncertainty is behind us, (and ignoring anything unforseen), i would say we are about 3-5 years away from getting back onto a firm market. | ||
| DES (Sickspeed)
Advanced Member Username: Sickspeed Post Number: 3242 Registered: 8-2002 |
You guys are so naive... Mr. G. is bullsh!tting you all... He's not the wall street type... He's a real life James Bond... Tsk, tsk, tsk... A bunch of sheep, you are... | ||
| James Glickenhaus (Napolis)
Member Username: Napolis Post Number: 945 Registered: 10-2002 |
Art Not to put too fine a point on it but this is what we do every day. Guess which way the market is heading and buy and sell. The only way to tell is by looking at results over a long time. Everytime you buy something someone else is selling something to you. Even though over time I think the US will do fine we have a huge bindge to work off, (NASDQ 5000) and there are real problems we all face. Now that the war is mostly behind us I'm hopefull the problems in the econ. will be addressed. The problems Jon talks of are real and deep. Jon Roy is a great friend of my Dad's. I was very proud when he nominated me to the NYSE when I became a General Partner @ G&Co. Best Jim | ||
| Jon P. Kofod (95f355c)
Member Username: 95f355c Post Number: 573 Registered: 8-2001 |
Jim, First off I feel like a real idiot since I had no idea that your the son of Seth Glickenhaus. For those of you not on Wall Street, Jim's father is one of the most respected and accomplished portfolio managers on the Street. You are correct Jim, Glickenhaus & Co. has an unbeatable record and well earned respect. I saw your last name was Glickenhaus here on F chat and often wondered if there was a connection but your profile doesn't list much. I certainly hope you are right and your father is wrong but in the short term I am worried about the economy. I guess next week will tell the story, not the actual earnings, but the outlook going forward, if any of the companies are willing to even give us any forward looking statements. It's too bad we don't have more people like your dad around from the 40's 50's and 60's to gain some wisom from. I once met Roy Neuberger, while still in grad school, when he was in his late 80's, an asked him if much had changed about the stock market. His reply was "nope...except it's a lot higher than when I started." Let's hope your right, Jim. However, your dad has been right more often than not. Regards, Jon | ||
| arthur chambers (Art355)
Intermediate Member Username: Art355 Post Number: 1240 Registered: 6-2001 |
Jim: Let's give it a little time. Let's say until the end of June to sort itself out. What's a fair wager (not money, something a little more personal like a public posting of something)? Art | ||
| Dr Tommy Cosgrove (Vwalfa4re)
Intermediate Member Username: Vwalfa4re Post Number: 1065 Registered: 5-2001 |
What if Warren Buffett decided to stay the hell away from the stock market because it crashed back in the late 20's? | ||
| James Glickenhaus (Napolis)
Member Username: Napolis Post Number: 944 Registered: 10-2002 |
Jon Glickenhaus & Co. record in picking stocks and buying and selling at the proper time is a matter of public record and speaks for itself. On 3/5 I stated IMHO that stocks were a buy, and bonds and crude were a sale. In this case my prediction tuned out to be right. As you know everything is a cycle. My Dad feels that the digestion of this bubble will take a lot longer than people think. If you bought stocks in the bubble of 29 it took until 1952 before you got even. There are few left who are active today in Wall Street who remember those days but as he was there and is still picking stocks maybe he's right. I'm a shade more optimistic. But, this is besides the point. Despite Art's denial I made a prediction that turned out to be true inspite of his prediction that I would be wrong. Best Jim | ||
| Dr Tommy Cosgrove (Vwalfa4re)
Intermediate Member Username: Vwalfa4re Post Number: 1062 Registered: 5-2001 |
I have never looked at the S&P, Dow, etc. I just look at my stocks. I have a chunk invested in a particular healthcare stock and it has done nothing but increase steadliy over the past 3 years. I have never really understood the specific reasons why potential war affects them so much other then it just does. Either way as long as my particular stocks do well I try not to worry myself with the others. I mean, you could still be making money in the S&P as long as your stock in it isn't one of the ones used to factor in as the measuring stick stock. By the way I am NOT an expert so don't hammer me too much for my comments. | ||
| Jon P. Kofod (95f355c)
Member Username: 95f355c Post Number: 571 Registered: 8-2001 |
James, Based on your prediction on 3/5 you are indeed correct. But that prediciton holds little water for the market decline that started to transpire back in early fall when the Bush Adminstration started talking about war. At that point we were a tad under 900 on the S&P 500. My point is we could all pick different points on the DOW and S&P to claim we were right. We could pick the passing of UN Resolution 1441, The day the troops started leaving our shores headed for the Gulf, the day the first bombs dropped.......and so on. Bottom line is that the war is having an economic impact both psychologically and fundamentally on economy and stock market. In January the economic numbers started looking a bit better and sentiment indexes were looking better as well. All that went down the drain in February and continues to do so. The level of pre-announcement warnings for the current quarter is actually ahead of last year's dismal Q1 as calculated by First Call. Business spending never picked up becasue of war concerns and now consumer spending is tanking. As I stated a few weeks ago in response to Doug O's question of whether there was room left in the rally a few days prior to the war. My prediction was that the once the swift success of war was certain (which occured this weekend) the market would start to focus on the next big event which is of course the economy and it ain't pretty. Look at last Friday's unemplyment report. The market ignored it because to the war. Had that report been this coming Friday (after our victory) there would have been a good 100-200 point sell off. Look at Monday, S&P futures was up 10+ points at the open on Saddam's death rumors and the market couldn't hold a 240 point advance finishing up a measly 20 points. Same story on Tuesday with the S&P again up 10+ points early am and 7+ points arund 8:30. Market still sold off. Same today. The market isn't focusing on the war anymore but the costs of rebuilding Iraq and the lousy economic climate. Next week the earnings start streaming in the market is focusing on that event. Hopefully I am wrong and the war had a minimal impact on the economy. Regards, Jon P. Kofod 1995 F355 Challenge #23 | ||
| Jim E (Jimpo1)
Intermediate Member Username: Jimpo1 Post Number: 1592 Registered: 7-2001 |
There's a guy in Dallas that collects statues of deposed/dead dictators. He has one of Stalin in front of his restaurant. I hope he gets a Saddam statue too! | ||
| James Glickenhaus (Napolis)
Member Username: Napolis Post Number: 943 Registered: 10-2002 |
Dr I stand corrected. Best Jim | ||
| Dr Tommy Cosgrove (Vwalfa4re)
Intermediate Member Username: Vwalfa4re Post Number: 1059 Registered: 5-2001 |
James, may I correct you...? Actually, they yanked that sonofabitch statue down FIRST, then pissed on it. :-) | ||
| Dr Tommy Cosgrove (Vwalfa4re)
Intermediate Member Username: Vwalfa4re Post Number: 1058 Registered: 5-2001 |
I wonder what kind of problems we would have had that we could not have foreseen if we didn't take the gun out of Saddam's hand? | ||
| James Glickenhaus (Napolis)
Member Username: Napolis Post Number: 942 Registered: 10-2002 |
Art What part of the truth don't you understand? I made my prediction on 3/5. (Look it up) DOW was at 7775.6 Treas. 30year bond 111 Crude 36.69 Today DOW 8245 Treas. 30 year bond 106.31 crude 28.52. While we're being accurate the Dow was NOT above 8500 at the begining of the year. | ||
| arthur chambers (Art355)
Intermediate Member Username: Art355 Post Number: 1239 Registered: 6-2001 |
James: Stocks aren't up. Look at the market. We started this year above 8500, we're below that now. I'm glad the troops won, but I still think this will turn out to be a disaster in the long term, causing us problems that we either didn't forsee, or didn't think through. Art | ||
| James Glickenhaus (Napolis)
Member Username: Napolis Post Number: 938 Registered: 10-2002 |
Stocks are up. Bonds are down. Oil is down The French, Russians, and Germans are playing with themselves. They're pissing on Saddam's statue. The sun rose. The sun set... |