| Author | Message | ||
| William H (Countachxx)
Advanced Member Username: Countachxx Post Number: 2608 Registered: 2-2001 |
Oh & by the way this isnt the 2nd coming its more like the 10,000th coming of the bubble, maybe the Millionth | ||
| William H (Countachxx)
Advanced Member Username: Countachxx Post Number: 2607 Registered: 2-2001 |
Bubbles are great, as long as you get off before they pop  | ||
| Taek-Ho Kwon (Stickanddice)
Member Username: Stickanddice Post Number: 912 Registered: 11-2002 |
Market corrections are fun!! Money makers galore! Cheers | ||
| jeff ryerson (Atheyg)
Member Username: Atheyg Post Number: 266 Registered: 8-2002 |
My definition of volatility is whipsaw action, big down days followed by rallys, the market has made a good run but it could pullback a but or consolidate,for a short while now and then resume back up. | ||
| William H (Countachxx)
Advanced Member Username: Countachxx Post Number: 2602 Registered: 2-2001 |
Ive seen a 10%+ rise in my portfolio since April its time to blow out the old dogs & reinvest carefully. I'm glad the bear is starting to curl up in his cave. Lets hope he has a nice long nap LOL | ||
| Mr. Doody (Doody)
Intermediate Member Username: Doody Post Number: 1181 Registered: 11-2001 |
a classically incorrect argument, doug. YOU say businesses are "worth 25% more than 3 months ago". however, the correct observation is "valuations are up 25% over the past three months" (if that is in fact true - i haven't don the math). how do you know that businesses weren't "undervalued by 25% for the past three months"? if things were undervalued, then they wouldn't be going up "way too fast" - they'd just be correcting rather slowly. markets are efficient. trading based on world events and other news items is part of efficiency. individual stocks might not be efficient in the market (e.g.: if a given institution or institutions hold too much), but overall they surely should behave "efficiently" over a reasonable (not short) timeframe. doody. | ||
| wm hart (Whart)
Intermediate Member Username: Whart Post Number: 1214 Registered: 12-2001 |
I don't pretend any expertise whatsoever. I don't know why an increase in Afghani wheat impacts long-term futures in Japan, which will drive the price of Russian oil up, and hence its a good thing to invest in silicon chips. All i know is that my office is in the Morgan Stanley building and whenever i walk outside and glance at the "boards," i know from the direction of the lines on the graph that something happened that made investors confident or scared. And, that it often has more to do with general news about world events, the economy in general, etc. than the particular value or prospects of a single company.Volatility isn't the word for it. | ||
| jeff ryerson (Atheyg)
Member Username: Atheyg Post Number: 262 Registered: 8-2002 |
Nothing is absolute but as a Techincian looking at a 30 year chart this could be for real, I would expect a bit of volatility until the general public rushes back in | ||
| Sean F (Agracer)
Junior Member Username: Agracer Post Number: 177 Registered: 2-2003 |
"Institutions will start dumping their positions to the little guy, taking profits and pushing the maket down," Institutions have way to much buying power, shares and money for that matter to dump all their shares on the little guy. The "little guy" simply doesn't have enough money to eat all their shares in a company fast enough. The price would drop so fast the institutions would be left with little or no profit in a stock. It's the simple rule of supply and demand. If every mutual fund that owned Cisco decided to dump it on Monday, the price would crater 50% or more. The market moves based on what buyers think will happen 6 to 9 months from now. If you put a chart of economic activity next to a chart of the dow over the last 60+ years, the dow would lead the econimic spending by about 6 to 9 months, both up and down. If the little guy wants to make money, he need to educate himself about how the market moves, and why. What stocks to look for, and why. It's not easy and you HAVE to pay attention to what is going on. Buying IMO is only 1/4th of the trick to picking a stock. It's knowing when to sell and take a profit, or cut a loss that is more important. | ||
| Terry Springer (Tspringer)
Member Username: Tspringer Post Number: 577 Registered: 4-2002 |
Stocks and bonds have both rallied over the past 2 months. This is a classic indicator of a return to a bull market. How long it will last.... well probably not very if corporate earnings dont back up what Wall Street is pricing into the market! P/E ratios are looking pretty nutty again. | ||
| Doug O (Little_o)
New member Username: Little_o Post Number: 40 Registered: 6-2002 |
Markets going up way to fast. how can businesses be worth 25% more than 3 months ago? Can the outlook for future earnings changed that drastically? I'm starting to doubt the "Efficient Market Hypothesis." I'm starting the believe that the market trades in the short-term between fear and greed. Big Money institutions bought right at the war, small fish was too scared from the 3 year bashing they took, they are starting to buy now because they don't want to get left behind. Institutions will start dumping their positions to the little guy, taking profits and pushing the maket down, little guy gets scared again, sells because of fear, institutions happily buy back the stock, cycle repeats itself. Any Thoughts? |