The Future of Collectible Cars

I think if you go back and look at his earlier articles you'll see that he's changed his tune quite a bit. From what I recall there was a time he argued that only Enzo era Ferraris will ever be collectible with the Possible exception of limited edition models like the F40,F50 and the Enzo...

 

He's right about the trend and it really us a cliff of buying power. The question is the timing and what else is going on when/as it happens-which he mentions here with China, currency values, etc

 

Take a look at this. A sign of the times?

Any decent Japanese car will be better than a 2000GT,

but will never look like it, or be one...

Regards, Alberto

Toyota 2000GT Coupe | eBay

 

"The younger generation doesn't want to live their father's dreams, instead they want the newest and the best. Only a decade ago I would never have guessed the 550s and 599s would become the next affordable collectables, but with only 3,600 550s and another 3,600 599s made, and only 974 US (and Canadian) 550s and 1,082 US (and Canadian) 599s built, they are the future. "

Plenty of these out there for grabs. Not rare, not collectible, and nobody thought they were until the prices arificially went up.

 

Funny enough I was just looking at datsun 510/early skyline's earlier this week on the interwebs. I had a dream the night before that I restored the ten yr old '79 datsun 210 I drove in high school my dad handed down to be high school. It is amazing how these particular toyo's have skyrocketed-they must of asked Enzo how many they should build!

All prices go up artificially!

 

If you read between the lines, it suggests 1970's cars will go down in value... 1980's and beyond will go up...

Folks who yearned for testarossa's are just now in their mid 40's... like me.

I never wanted a dino, or daytona... Didn't even know what they were until I got on this board 10+ years ago...

I would kill for a 250gt... but thats because of Ferris Buehler .

I wanted a testarossa, 930, and countach. Own 2, one to go...

Bo

 

Sheehan's right about one thing, I was born in 1970 and I'm not interested in cars "before my time". I owned a '67 Alfa Spider (aka "Duetto") for a year or two and while I appreciated it for it's beauty and soul - I did not enjoy the overall experience. It cemented the notion in my head - 'never again' will I collect anything built before the 80s.

The line about "not wanting to date your dad's prom queen" rings very true with this kid.

 

I think there are some exceptions. I believe it has something to do with how well a car drives, reliability and how usable a car is. Porsche 356A's and Speedsters for example. Early 911's still seem to be popular with a younger audience. What about the Hot Rod and biker culture? There are some core icons that seem to be popular with collectors.

Freeman

 

Sheean doesnt reflect on price much...

American cars from the 60's and 70's are still popular with folks as they are affordable. Even a restored car can be bought for 30-40k...

Ferraris from the 60s and 70s are a whole different ball of wax... You are talking 400k+$... That limits the market to uber successful folks, and the elderly . The latter population is dying off...

Cars from the 1980's have not hit their peaks yet... They went up in value, but not a lot. Much of that has to do with the economy of the last 10 years - its pretty stagnant. If the economy picks up, the cars from the 80's should follow the same trajectory as those from the 60's and 70's...

A testarossa for $150k or a 308 for 60$k... is still cheap... A new vette can hit $100k...

I don't know what will happen with subsequent generations. Maybe they will be collecting electric cars and dreaming about lithium ion batteries and electric chargers...

But most everyone in my generation (40 something), has dreamed of testarossas, 930's, an countaches... since 7th grade. I could afford newer cars. I don't want them...

There were lots of cool cars in the 90's and 2000's... Look at Konnesig, etc. But somehow, my brain shut off after the 1980's.

Not once did I dream about owning a Konnesig, Buggatti Veyron, etal. My dream cars were empregnated on my soul and etched in testosterone when I was a teen...

 

I agree that, generally speaking, a car lover isn't interested in cars built before he was born, but, as Freeman has pointed out, there are notable exceptions. Last year, I showed my Dino at a regional car show sponsored by an MG car club. My car won two awards (both people's-choice type, rather than based on judging by club officials). One award was called "
Car You Want to Drive Home In." The other, more important award (in my opinion) was called "Future Sports Car Owners Choice." This second award convinced me that a timeless design will connect with multiple generations. For this reason, although I was born in 1948, I lust after two 1941 cars: the 1941 Lincoln Zephyr coupe and the 1941 Cadillac Model 62 Convertible. Perhaps this is a case of the exception proving the rule. Fred

 

I totally agree with this and I think the Dino forum is a clear proof of this. From that I gather a number of the owners who frequent this forum are 40-ish so either weren't born or were too young to remember when Dinos were being produced. I'm 42 myself and almost bought a 246gt three years ago (before I got distracted with other cars). I have cars from the 60s, 70s, 80s and 2000s. Each was special in its era and offers something that is lost with modern cars. If I could afford it I'd happily own a 1930s Alfa or Bugatti grand prix car AND a Ferrari F40. To me there is a common thread that goes through these cars and I think a lot of others share similar views...

 

Vintage cars are like costumes. We are only actors on the stage of life. Have a look at this Johnnie Walker/Jude Law video "The Gentleman's Wager II" :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0REAVbooPkU

Who doesn't want this at any age?

Freeman

 

As a younger member of the forum, (I'm only 23), I would safely say that I'm probably the exception rather than the norm when it comes to liking older cars. I have a 308 myself, but most guys my age/slightly older are interested in the latest 911, Lamborghini Aventador or Ferrari 458/488. I do think that there will always be a high demand for the 60s, 70s and even 80s or 90s cars, as they are (relatively in some cases) limited production, beautifully designed, and offer something more than 0-60 in sub 3 secs...

 

+1

 

While they may be both old and slow, so-called "Enzo-era" Ferraris will always be high- priced, due to their (relative) rarity and, in the case of cars like the Dinos and Daytonas, status as "coach-built," as well. The general public may not know much about the works of Matisse, but his paintings never go for fire-sale prices! Fred

 

Sheehan has certainly changed his tune and he has long gone off-the-boil when it comes to predicting the Ferrari market. Loads of post rationalisation in that article because he is guilty of the most basic forecasters error. He routinely projects his own personal tastes, desires, and wishes onto the market.

A decade ago I predicted his "the only collectible Ferrari's are the Enzo era Ferrari's" was going to be proven as BS in the near term and it has. He claimed month after month that non-Enzo era cars were just used cars that would keep on depreciating due to the increased volumes so would never be collectible.

He totally missed the generational shift that has already taken place. I wrote about the bedroom poster effect and hot wheels collection effect combined with a new gernation. I also suggested that massive expansion of the global car market would render theories about production number increases as obsolete.

I am fifty and am only interested in Montezemolo era Ferrari mainly because I could never live with the shoddy quality of the older cars.

This passing of a generation is evident in the new events Ferrari is organising for more modern cars.

What I have observed over and over again is that modern series production cars depreciate to roughly 50% of their list plus fitted option prices then start to climb as it takes a decade or two for bedroom dreamers to realise their dreams. Some take longer if they were less loved in period but the magazines soon retrospectively re-habilitate reputations and markets adjust upwards undervalued cars hence the 599 starting to lift as we speak.

The special editions are something else entirely and being oversubscribed at initial sale they will only go one way as not only are they instantly collectible but as the market expands people will always covet the 'special' version.

Being invited to buy such a car from Ferrari now is to virtually guarantee a return on your investment and thus free use before you pass it on or Ferrari buy it back.

Finally we have to talk about the new 7year warranty and service included cars and personal configuration ordering now in effect.

People will increasingly be looking for 'their spec' in the secondhand / collector market. This will drive demand from particular customers to particular cars. I expect a lot of direct contact with owners and thus marque specialists really having to know the whereabouts of and detailed specs of everycar. Buyers will pay a premium to get a spec much like they had in mind when dreaming the dream and thus I predict the depreciation will be much less than the previous generation except for some really off the wall spec combos that should have triggered a visit from the taste police.

Time to hand the baton to a new generation for 'market letter'.

 

Reading this thread makes me feel real good about tracking my 930. Also, I appreciate the fact that it's in driver condition and not a princess. If it goes up in value, great. If it goes down, great. Plan to enjoy the hell out of it. Will let my kids worry about resale after I am floating in the cosmos...

 

I'm 45, born in 1971. I tried hard to like the older Ferraris. I bought a '71 Daytona, loved it for a few weeks. And after that, the novelty wore off. Steers like a truck, sometimes starts, sometimes doesn't. Just couldn't identify with it. I don't think I would buy a 275 GTB if they were 1/4th of the current price. I did, however, just pick up a '94 Porsche 928 GTS. Love it. Love it.

 

Apples and tennis balls. Old Porsches get driven. Old ferraris get looked at... Usually. My 930 is 10x more fun to drive than the testarossa...

 

Speaking of shows, I had a somewhat similar experience two years ago. I've always been very interested in Lancia Stratos and had been thinking of getting one but made a decision to get one at a show. I was at the Lime Rock historic festival concours and was chatting to an older gentleman who had a Lancia Aurelia coupe (only Lancia at the show) when all of a sudden a boy of eleven or twelve came out of nowhere and with a very excited expression said to the Lancia owner "Excuse me, Sir! Excuse me, Sir, is there a Stratos here?". It hit me then that if a twelve year old kid and fourty year old adult shared a passion for a car that was made before they were born (barely in my case) then it probably truly is a special car that transcends generations. There are plenty of others...

 

Exactly, well said. Same feeling I had with the '67 Alfa. It was a crapshoot if the car would run right; it always needed something. Pissed fluids all over the garage no matter what I did. I felt extremely unsafe in it surrounded by modern cars in traffic.

Don't get me wrong, folks - I still love all of the old(er) classics - I just don't want to own them.

Another thing I've noticed in the past 5 years is a shift in the high-end Auction houses. It used to be that a Gooding & Co wouldn't take a consignment of a car less than 25-30 years old unless it was an Enzo. These days, you'll see them running a lot of more modern classics across the block. It's a welcome change, if you ask me. Auction an e30 M3 instead of another fricking Fiat Jolly...jesus. lol.

 

The Fiat Dino was pretty obvious, as was Mika Häkkinen as one of the group of "pushers" at the finish (no pun intended), but was that Jenson Button as the helicopter pilot? Just caught a brief glimpse, but I think it was Jenson.

Any other motorsports stars in the Johnnie Walker/Jude Law video?

 

Thanks for that.