Depreciation Crystal Ball

I'll be the first to offer my prediction on a 2015 California with around 25k miles. Currently there is a 2010 for sale in Miami, Black/ Black, daytona's and 23k miles. Asking price is $165k. Maybe the sell it for $158-160k. I'm predicting, a price of about $130k in 2015. That is not trade in value but a dealer price. That may be less depending on the replacement coming out. If they keep the current look but do a minor facelift vs. a whole new replacement and name change. Obviously if a whole new replacement, probably worth less than $130k. Will also depend on what the list price is with the new California.

 

Hey Bob. IMO, the Cali is not very useful for a family unless you or they are rather short. The rear seats are about as useful as a 911. Nevertheless, some here seem to do ok with using the rear seats. My crystal ball says $145k for a 6y/o Cali with 25k miles. They'll hold decent value for a while, IMO.

 

You live in a pretty affluent area . I have a 2011 california if I were to guess A 2009 california in 2015 would be 6 years old and assuming the califonia gets replaced or refurbished before you sell . based on looking a other 6 year old cars such as the 599 or 430 figure maybe 60% OF THE LIST PRICE when new . THat is comparable to 599s and 430s.
but who knows. Now if they discontinue this type car all together it could be higher or lower if there are other factors so it all boils down to 125 to 135.
Larry

 

You have the itch again already for another F car

If the back seat is not that usable in the Cali why not go for a 599? When the F12 arrives the 599 should depreciate even more and be a great car for the money. The 599 will not hit the bottom floor on pricing as low as a Cali will....Just my 2 cents

 

I was not aware you were keeping the vette. The Cali could be the best option for you, and the top drops which is always a plus.

 

Too funny!

Sorry, no cure, its in your blood, its in all of our blood

You are not alone, last week I thought of selling my F430, I wanted a 599, a month ago it was a Cali. Oh, and my DD is getting ready to be replaced with a new ride becuase I am bored. So I am looking at a new M5. I will probably pay MSRP or perhaps a few K off but in a year or two I will lose $25,000 easy. I work hard for a living and dont have money to burn. $25,000 is a lot to me but because I love cars and it is my passion I will deal with the depreciation because I want the new car now, not later. Cars make ZERO sense financially. My wife finally convinced me of that! She says time and time again that I always try to justify why I get a new car but in the end shes right, getting new cars every 12 months is silly, but I love it! She has accepted I am a car nut. When we meet I was a car nut and still am, she knew what she was getting into

Unless your wife seriously flips out or your pinching pennies, for darn sake get another Ferrari, you wont regret it!

 

May I ask something here: I am much younger than most of you guys and thus not married. I assume the people here earn their money themselves. Why do so many of you "fear" your wives? They should be thankful for having husbands who make a lot of money. If I was married and my wife told me not to spend so much money on cars I would tell her to shut up and be thankful for what she has married into.

 

You are obviously not married
Ooops, sh_t she is looking at my post.

 

You missed the point. My wife thinks I have issues when it comes to cars but by no means has that affected my marriage. I have had probably 10-12 cars since we have meet. Cars are a material thing, I would give up my cars in a heartbeat if it meant losing my wife. Marriage is about balance. I probably spend a bit too much on cars but as long as the money is not ALL spent on cars it is a non issue. It is important to spread the money we all make around a bit, I have recently done improvments to our home, took a nice vacation, purchased a gorgeous watch for my wifes birthday a few months back etc......My wife and I are partners and share a great lifestyle together which I earned myself. My wife knows I built my business and have worked very hard over the past 10 years doing so, so she does not interfere with my passion for cars, she makes comments but it is all in good fun .

 

Back to the original thought of the thread - what would a 09 go for in 15?
What happens if the '15 is a turbo 6 ( that is the rumor .) Then the V8 will retain value as it becomes more desirable.
But the Cali is a high production car so I will give a completely uneducated guess that it will take a 60% depreciation from MSRP over that time. 2007 599s are going for 150k, 60% below and are sitting on the lot as people are waiting for the F12.
Why not hold out and look for a 2012 - 7 year maintenance and a bunch are hitting the market as people want the 2013 with the bigger horse power.

 

+1.

As for crystal ball, I think many more Californias will be driven routinely, not just on "special" drives, so many more "high" (by Ferrari standards) mileage cars will be the norm. They will probably depreciate more like used Mercedes SLs, so I figure >60% eventually, likely even more, but that "eventually" could be sooner than occurred with 360s or 355s. A lot will depend on their relative robustness, too. If they prove relatively trouble free and relatively low maintenance (comparatively speaking, think 360 vs 355, for example), their values could hold up better, longer. On the other hand, low mileage, nearly new ones still seem to be going for somewhat close to MSRP.

 

Piper: the Cali is perfect for small kids like yours (and mine). they absolutely love having the chance to go for a ride and view it as a special treat. I plan to keep mine for another year or 2, by which time the older one (now 7) will probably have more issues with leg and head room. but, we are enjoying for as long as it will last.

nfg: since my wife is not on here, I can speak candidly. Only a fool would not respect and FEAR a partner than can make life miserable for you: worse case scenario, take your money and kids; best case scenario, nag you to death!

 

Come see me in September 2013 when I'm ready to sell my 2012 ... probably with 35,000 miles on her. I said this in other threads but I have paid over $60K for a Mercedes big boat lease and I accept THAT loss, why not accept a similar loss with my Ferrari when I'm having a hell of a lot more fun driving the Ferrari? Here's how I priced my last one, ask the dealer what they will offer me on trade, add $10K to make the loss in sales tax even if I sell it outright, check all the adds in Cars.com, then price it equal to the lowest as I know I will have more options on mine than most any other.

Rick

 

That is funny - visions of a "big boat." I grew up with Mercs and never cared for them. My dad bought a 300SL convert for $399 and flipped it the same day for $2k. Almost paid off his mortgage. Now, pretty sure, it will pay off anyone's mortgage.

You never know what value you have, but you can never plan for it either.

Your Merc served its purpose so don't down play it Rick

 

Yep, the Merc is really a nice car although it has a bit of a delay from idle to taking throttle which is irritating but that is its only problem. And it gets attention, just not the attention that the Ferrari gets and my huge ego loves the attention.

Rick

 

Now your really going to drive yourself nuts Stay away from the Ferrari dealer, your urge to buy will increase dramatically!!!!!!! But wait, thats not a bad thing