20 race calendar my predictions as follows: LH - 10 victories NR - 4 victories Bottas - 2 victories Ricciardo - 2 victories Alonso -1 victory Button - 1 Thoughts? Be interesting to look back on this and see who was closest
With the loophole on engine development open to all teams except Honda, I see the other teams becoming more competitive. I think victories will still be shared predominantly by Mercedes, Williams & McLaren.
No way Merc will be so dominant this season. I'm looking forward to a closer contest this season with the other teams making good technical ground over the winter and engine dev gains through the season (apart from McL Honda who have been nailed by the engine dev freeze). Hopefully it will a season long multi team battle this season - with Hamilton or Rici ultimately victorious.
Mercedes still dominates, winning 70% of the races. Williams and Red Bull split the rest with Ferrari having a chance for a win. Lotus will be interesting to watch with their new MB PU. I think Honda will be shown to have made the mistake of the century. Not only have the other PU makers had a full season of racing experience, but Honda will not be able to make a change until 2016, while every other PU get updates in 2015. I'll be happy to eat those words, but I doubt that I will need to.
Mercedes will dominate because Ferrari and Renault are chasing the 2014 spec Mercedes PU, while Mercedes is producing the 2015 PU.
To keep interest alive, I hope different teams will win, but I am not against another year of Mercedes domination; this time with Nico winning. I am wondering how Red Bull will do, but I expect good results from McLaren-Honda towards the end of the year. I am completely in the dark about ... Ferrari. Too many changes in the technical team so late in the year don't augur too much for good results early in the next season.
The loophole doesn't offer that much of an advantage Imo Arms race? Game changer? What do the latest changes to F1 engine rules mean? | James Allen on F1 ? The official James Allen website on F1
I would prefer if the split the victories evenly! But I say, between the Merc boys, they will take 50% of the race wins. Hopefully the other teams can split the wins. Williams, Red Bull will definitely take at least one win each. I'm hoping Button and Alonso can at least take home some podiums if not some wins.
This article points out what I have been saying about the loophole "unfreezing" PUs. Development will not be ongoing throughout the season. All the unfreezing or loophole does is give the PU makers some flexibility as to when they introduce their 2015 PUs.
Far be it from me to 'argue' with James Allen, he's a lot closer to it than me, but I'm not (yet anyway) convinced he's got it right. I'm still thinking they can run it and make up to 32 tokens worth of changes *prior* to submitting it for 2015 homologation. But I'm probably wrong....... Cheers, Ian
Will all the Mercedes powered teams have the same spec as Mercedes again? If so, then the 50hp gain will help Williams to keep pace with Mercedes and Force India to jump ahead of McLaren. The Honda unit will surely be behind even the 2014 spec one. With that in mind, I agree with the others, perhaps four way winners: Hamilton, Rosberg, Massa and Bottas, with Hulk getting close to his first win?
Secondly, after 5 years of mediocrehood, Brawn (n.e. Mercedes) has finally figured out how to make a slippery chassis that handles well, and has power enough to spare in the power unit(s).
Plain and simple. They can all wait to homologate their PU till the last race if they want to, but until then, they MUST run the 2014 engine. Only reason I can see the teams doing this is if the 2015 PU is worse than the 2014 PU. Actually, The customer teams don't have much say when they homologate, right? Is it up to the teams to homologate PU's, or engine manufacturers? As far as Honda goes, if they are on par or better than Ferrari and Renault PU's from last year, they shouldn't be in too bad of shape.
Again, I could be wrong, but that's not the way I read it. From Autosport; That reads to me that they can use their 32 tokens as & how they wish during the season prior to homologating their 2015 configurations. The engine manufacturers. cheers, Ian
Whiting is addressing the incorrect notion that homologation needed to take place before 28 Feb. The loop hole is that there is no date certain by which updates must be homologated. But in the Sporting Regs, it clearly states that a team cannot run a modified version of a homologated PU (I quoted this in an earlier post, APPENDIX 4, POWER UNIT HOMOLOGATION - 2. A manufacturer may homologate no more than one specification of power unit.). Therefore, PU makers are free to continue to use the 2014 PU during 2015 while they complete their update program. But, the Sporting Regs prohibit them from running a modified version of that PU, until and unless it is homologated. Then it becomes the homologated 2015 PU and cannot be raced in a modified form until it is homologated as the 2016 version, etc. The wild card could be that the FIA's interpretation what qualifies as modifications permitted "for reliability, safety or cost-saving reasons". So, as JA points out, PU makers will have to weigh their options in determining when to introduce the new PU. This could actually play to Mercedes' favor as they can continue to develop for as long as they maintain a significant advantage over the others.
I can see your logic, but I believe there is an alternate view. There are 3 homologated engines from. These engines are allowed to be changed, subject to the token system after the end of the 2014 season. Changes are allowed to be made until the 2015 homologation after which the engines are subject to the sporting regs apply. It was planned by the FiA that the period of change (between homologation) would be after the last race of one season and before the first race of the next season. However that not what the written law states - hence the loophole. I'm not sure which view will prevail, but I do see logic in both.
I'll be surprised if Ferrari win any races or regularly challenge for the podium given the mess at Maranello. Things at present look bleak and all honesty despite the engine loop-hole Ferrari will have to run the 14' powerplant until they deem worthy to bring the new power plant if they wish to do so. With the changes we are lead to believe the 14' and 15' PU's might be hell a lot of different and that should affect the design of the car too.
Here is the overriding point. A car cannot compete with a PU that is not homologated and a different spec of a homologated PU cannot be used. So using a modified or updated version of a homologated PU (the 2014 PU in this case) is prohibited under Sporting Reg Appendix 4 #2, and therefore cannot be used. All a steward has to do is ask one of two questions to disqualify a PU; 1) has this PU been modified? 2) has this PU been homologated in its current form? The loophole, cited by Whiting, permits a team to delay the homologation date. That said, the FIA is an asylum run by the inmates. So, they can do whatever they like, at their sole discression, as it says repeatedly throughout the Sporting and Technical Regs.
