Mclaren vs Red Bull vs Force India vs Renault vs Haas

1. Red Bull - nothing is really changing.
2. Renault - with the financial situation improved, this will be a much stronger team.
3. Force India - Looming financial trouble
4. Haas - with all the help from Ferrari this team should not be on the back of the grid
5. McLaren - nothing changes

* Manor, Sauber, Williams would be in between these teams.

 

I think you have to include everyone that's not Ferrari and Mercedes if you want to talk about those teams!

--Williams, probably hangs on to 3rd place, all things being equal
--Red Bull, Ooohhh, they dropped Infiniti from the name, that should make the cars faster! Will be fun to see how the Ricky/Danny competition plays out!
--Force India, or Aston, or Force India, or Aston? Again, which driver is better is about the extent of my interest here. Have been reading that Hulk is great for years, but Perez sneaks onto the podium!
--Renault, seriously, I think we'll see them progress and move up the field as the season goes on, assuming what I've read is accurate that Lotus didn't really improve the car much in 2015. On second thought, Maldonado and Palmer, could be a long season, unless Alain Prost jumps in the cockpit.
--Haas: I'm still 100% rooting for them to not only beat Manor, but to make a real effort despite being US based the majority opinion that writes them off.
--Manor: Totally unknown what happens with them this year, one scenario says with Mercedes power they instantly leap to the middle of the field. Given that they haven't announced their drivers and loss of leadership, a really big unknown that could play out anywhere from last (again) to mid field. Probably looking to see what drivers bring them the most cash I guess, otherwise why not give a seat to Rossi?
--Sauber: Again, no idea with them, they started great in Australia last year and then just slid backwards all year. Maybe they'll find some money, develop the car, and then we can see what their drivers can do with a good car!

 

I wouldn't sleep on McLaren Honda but I really don't know until you see the testing times. RedBull will probably be in the best shape with FI next and probably Haas. Sauber and Manor wont be any better. Williams should hang on the third best but you never know.

 

I predict a Renault podium in 2016 with Alonso behind the wheel...

 

Really? Wow!....

I can maybe see it next year, but not this one. He's still under contract in Woking and it seems Ron wants to keep him around, at least for this coming season.

OK, we know these contracts are (relatively) easy to break, but I think he'll be with them for at least this coming season.

As for the others, I guess Merc & Ferrari at the front again (Duh!) Closely followed by Williams. Haas will do well to get ahead of Marussia, at least this season. Force India may surprise some people if they can get a decent budget.

Cheers,
Ian

 

That's quite the prediction! Maybe 2017. I think it more likely that he'll be stuck at McLaren next year. Also, I doubt Renault will have a podium-capable car with the likes of Mercedes, Ferrari, and Williams doing so well - it would take some unusual circumstances.

All the best,
Andrew.

 

I think its a 50/50 chance that Alonso will be at Renault, I think McLaren understand that they do not have a championship contending car, so why spend all that money on Alonso if he is willing to leave. Granted that would also require Renault pay up for Alonso's services...

 

If Renault is faster than McLaren next year then I could see him leaving. Otherwise there would be no point in going to yet another team that isn't ready to win a championship. Staying put is the only thing that makes sense unless a seat opens up at Merc. Lotus was only reasonably good because of the Mercedes engine last year yet they were worst of all Mercedes runners. I don't see that changing in one year with a less powerful engine unless Renault makes a huge gain and an open checkbook.

 

What sense does it make that he would go to Renault... they pretty much ran in place from 2014 to 2015.

In Abu Dhabi toward the end, McLaren allowed Alonso to prepare the ERS for two laps so he would have full deployment for one lap. He set the third fastest lap of the race, .279s off Lewis' fastest lap and .033s of Vettel's (4 laps earlier). The chassis is fundamentally good.

Ferrari had the exact same problem in 2014 as Honda (albeit to a smaller magnitude), poor MGH-H harvesting as a result of an architecture flaw that could only be corrected over winter. We know where Ferrari ended up, and Honda's engine is already supposed to be pretty strong.

We'll find out soon enough how much progress they've made but it's foolish to write them off before even testing.

 

Renault will be nowhere in my opinion. Firstly, they need to pull a last second 'Brawn' and bolt a different engine into a car designed for Merc PU. Secondly, they jumped the development train for 2016 rather late. Lastly, I believe, they do what Mercedes did and fully focus on the next set of rule changes to be competitive thereafter.
2016 will be a year of restructuring and planning more than anything else. This year's car will be a test mule.

McHonda might surprise us. They surprised me last year with how bad things remained but I think Honda does know well what they have built, what the advantages of their concept are and what was not working.
I don't really expect it necessarily but it might also be possible that McHonda finds itself in the fight for 3rd place in the constructors championship.

 

I hope Merc don't win the wdc and that Ros takes Ham to the cleaners.

Ferrari for wdc (Vettel) and wcc

McLaren to make a big leap to third place

Willies for 4th

RB - don't care, but hopefully no better than 5th.

Renault - no where as they are too far behind the dev curve already. Will focus on 2017.

Hass - poor Hass. The hype around them is already too much. If they beat manor they will have done well. They will need a couple of years to play themselves in...

The rest? Irrelevant lapped car fodder.

 

Excellent topic!

+1 on all.

I think Haas should be ahead of Sauber even, they've got a pretty good deal going with Ferrari. Sad to say it, but I think Sauber will be barely in front of Marussia this year.

Mclaren will improve, at the very least ahead of Sauber, Marussia and Haas...They can finally attack their problems properly now (packaging restricting a lot of the engine development resulting in the massive problems they suffered) and should at the very least be a regular top 10 contender.


Force India build a great b spec car last year, but their issue is budget...Aston out so bad news for them. Expect them to fight hardest with Mclaren.

Lotus/Renault...new owners and a higher budget (though anything is higher budget compared to the entire 2015 season, which was run on hopes, dreams, crisps and lies). Doubt they'll make a substantial improvement though. Gone is the merc engine, back is the dreaded renault.

Toro Rosso had a decent little car last year, mostly held back by it's renault power plant. It wasn't that much slower to the Red Bull. 2015 (late spec isn't it?) Ferrari power, drivers a season of racing behind them...I think they will upset the big boys in Austria!

Williams will stay where they are I think, but battle hard with the Toro Rosso and at non power circuits, with Red Bull. Ferrari and Mercedes' fuel sponsors have spend a lot of money and a lot of time getting the fuel combustion exactly right which allowed them much more power compared to their customer engines. If Williams and their fuel supplier can't do the same, they have no hope in hell staying with the 2 front runners.

Red Bull...their whole engine saga and now they're sort of doing it on their own. I think they'll struggle with it this year. Hence dropping a few places and being upset by their little team. 2017 they'll be back, but that's next years topic.

Ferrari has shown fantastic improvements in speed in 2015 and will continue to do so. They won't be dominant. They will fight Mercedes tooth and nail. Look back to Brazil and Abu Dhabi...mercedes fighting each other hard but Ferrari right there. Hopefully the chance of wins will motivate Kimi enough to be on it all year, not occasionally.

Mercedes is covered in the Ferrari bit. We've seen over the last 2 years when things don't go exactly as how their own script looked like, it's panic. When Merc panics, they lose big. This is the year when they'll miss Ross Brawn. I think their car will be ahead of Ferrari but not by much. Being a bit optimistic here, I predict they'll just lose the championship purely because of a few dumb decisions through out the season.

 

This

 

Toro Rosso might have an interesting season, with the switch to year old Ferrari engines last month they are quite a ways behind in their chassis development.

 

All mounting points are the same so that's a huge relief.

Brawn got Merc engines early in 2009. That was when there was no standardized engine mounting points. They did pretty good.

 

Yes it needed to be extended...but by how much? 2cm? 30? A longer wheelbase is not necessarily the end of the world. Plenty of times during the season cars get their wheelbase extended. Lotus did with the E20, Merc W02 or 3 did too...I'm sure there have been others in the last couple of years.

The renault engine required a lot more extra cooling. IMO it's easier to make gains on this than if it was the other way around. Part of the reason why Red Bull struggled so much in 2014 (opening) was because their package was too tight and therefore the car would overheat very quickly. If you go the other way round, the car having too much cooling and thus leaving performance on the table...this is much easier solved IMO. Would probably require a big side pod upgrade (smaller pods) and in return a different front wing. Certain cooling slots can be closed, package at the rear can be tightened...

We'll see how problematic it really is, all we can do is speculate right now.

Unsure how Honda fits in here though, STR drove with Renault power .

---

CEPSA will announce they're leaving Toro Rosso soon. I'd say shell will be back to sponsor them. Ferrari engine and Verstappen connection (Shell is Dutch). That would be excellent because Shell was part of the magic formula which netted Ferrari a lot of extra horsepower at the end of the season.

 

As Ian always says...''this is why we watch''

 

New season & new cars.

As already noted, I'm pretty sure Merc & Ferrari will remain the class of the field, but behind them will hopefully be close.

Cheers,
Ian