V12 - a good investment ? Or obsolete. Last of the N/A does anyone care ?

I certainly think that today's used car prices are a tad optimistic. I don't believe that all these standard cars will have buyers in the medium term future - there seem to be so many new cars launched every year, that eventually there will just be too much supply. Porsches, Lambos, Ferraris, McLarens plus all the small/exclusive manufacturers.

I also have a feeling that even the younger guys who do care about cars, are much more driven by always having the latest and greatest than some 5/10/15 year old car. I also think people care less and less about the engine and more about the performance stats, interior, fancy personalization and Gadgets etc. at least that is the feeling I get from looking a viewer numbers of various YouTube channels - how come people are more interested in some crappy, Chaved up Ferrari/lambo bla bla than the petrolicious video of the 250 GTO

I don't think cars as we like them will be banned (well apart from bigger cities) in my lifetime, but it might well become more difficult/expensive to be able to drive them on the road, which likely won't have a positive Impact on values

 

Interesting I gave a work presentation on who are Merc, BMW and VW's biggest competitor/s and what can they do about it. Most identified Tesla but none came up with a response to your actual question (which I asked BTW).

I actually am quite optimistic IF (and I mean IF) car companies actually observe and listen to the millenials (and younger) and take into consideration their idea's of whats "cool" and what they aspire to.

I keep being drawn to the fact that under Nestle, Nespresso would not have happened. Instead a totally new innovative group had to be formed to explore boundaries and develop what is now a major success.

So IF Porsche, Ferrari, Lamborghini etc and their respective owners took the time to listen and learn from the next generation and market heavily to them, there is still time. HOWEVER inaction more than anything else will be the death of the car enthusiast.

 

I'm in my late 40s. In the 80s I thought the 308 was Ferrari. I wouldn't have been able to even tell you what a 250 GTO was. All I cared about was the newest and fastest. If a car was 2 years old it was garbage. Now I drive a 20 year old Ferrari and am not that impressed with the new ones that are more about speed than fun and style.

 

Scraggy, for someone who grew up listening to aspirated petrol engines and which learned to identify sports cars by the sound of the exhaust, other types of full motorization in this type of vehicles are impossible to swallow and even to accept. More than forty years ago when I was a kid I listened to a Ferrari for the first time and the sound of that V12 from a 365 GTB4 Daytona has since remained well guarded in my mind. I'm certain there are many other persons here from the same generation, who grew up in a similar manner and environment, and can tell identical stories as well. On behalf of all of them the only thing I ask the creator is - please provide us all the necessary health to enjoy our Ferraris V8 and V12 for many more years and we couldn't care less about what comes afterwards.

Engines hybridization will certainly be the next step for Ferrari and as always happens with evolution it will turn all our present models, may be with the only exception of the LaFerrari, into outdated vehicles which represent a completely different era and paradigma. Is that bad ? I think is just the manner the motor car industry is moving forward in a comparable way to what happened when the petrol lamp was substituted by the electric bulb.

 

They will care, they will worship at the alter of excellence and rue the day that those among them that never did never can.

We are the fortunate few, never forget, always enjoy. End of sermon.

 

You need to hang out with different kids. My daughter will be twelve in November. She wants driving lessons for her birthday.

 

You're asking two different questions I think. One is a much broader one about will all internal combustion powered cars be obsolete in under 10 years. The other is what happens to Ferraris.

To the first point. I think many of us will live to see the day when internal combustion powered vehicles are fairly rare. But I don't think it will be in under 10 years. I think the article is optimistic. I also think part of the discussion regarding the transition to electric vehicles includes autonomous vehicles.

I don't think people will give up their aggregate investment in ICE vehicles so quickly. If the transition happens only over the next 8 years then the sum value of nearly all the non electric was just reduced to near zero. I have no idea what that value is, but I am certain it is a very large number. Thus, it might not be an exaggeration to say this intense depreciation could very well be ruinous to the economy. Its such a big change that I don’t think everyone will make it all at once. I think it will be far more gradual.

Then we have the the high cost of batteries. Even with the high prices, Tesla still loses money on each and every car they make. And electric also still cannot adequately address longer travel. Tesla's supercharger stations require you to wait 30 minutes to get 1/2 of a charge (= about 120 miles). I can attain a 450-500 mile range in my car in 6 minutes. By that math, Tesla gains 4 miles per minute of charge. I gain 83… That is 21x faster. Most people are not gaining patience for anything, they are losing patience. I don’t think the Tesla model is something that would work for many people. I think they need to get it down to around 5 minutes for a full charge. They have experimented with battery swapping stations- that is a fascinating idea. But this lack of easy access to longer range means there will be a role for internal combustion powered vehicles for some time.

Then there is the lack of standardization on electric charging ports on these cars. Today one can fill a petrol/ diesel vehicle anywhere in the world using an existing and established infrastructure. This does not exist for EVs. There are different and competing standards. I don’t think it would be too difficult for the industry to standardize, but it is another hurdle the industry needs to overcome if it is going to produce EVs in larger numbers. There is no reason why I shouldn’t be able to juice up my Mercedes at the same place one can juice up a Tesla. Can you imagine if each brand had its own charging locations?!!

The autonomous model sounds promising, except mixed driving situations- those with full autonomous and human driven- frequently result in trouble. There are lots of crashes. I think autonomous can handle simple situations but not the kind of chaos you have with people and their egos. I don't think its realistic to ban all manually driven vehicles all in one moment.

I have yet to see anyone address the lost municipal revenue owing to the elimination of motoring violations. The common retort to this is: well, they will just raise property taxes. Possible in theory, but in practice far more difficult. The most populous state in the US is California. They cannot raise property taxes on a given property until it changes hands. Thus many properties are tremendously under valued. This is the law of California. It was a response to the state consistently raising property taxes. So the largest state by population is hamstrung in raising property taxes. In places that can raise taxes, this will just end up raising rents, depressing prices on properties and also raising the price of goods and services due to increased rental costs. A logical response by the population will be to enact laws like in California. So much for raising property taxes.

My guess is it will probably be something more like 30 years before all (90%+) cars on the road are electric and autonomous. I do think it will happen. But I think we are going to have an in between phase where cars will still have traditional controls for manual driving but also will have autonomous features. Autonomous driving mode might be required for city centers. And that could be much sooner. Maybe 10 years out. The same for zero emission driving (electric, fuel cell?).

To the second point about what our old internal combustion powered vehicles will be worth... I think some are tempted to say this will be like smart phones: one day we had flip phones and these quaint Blackberry things, and the next we had the iPhone. But I don't think it's the same with personal transportation. Smart phones replaced some things we had prior, but in many ways they were a new phenomenon. We already have personal transport and it works pretty well. Replacing it with something else that basically does the same thing will take longer.

I think sports cars will exist outside this for a while longer. You simply need the experience, the emotion, and for that I think you need the internal combustion engine.

Consider: Ferrari is still a very small volume of the total market. How many car sales around the world last year? Around 88 million I believe. At around 8,400 total units Ferrari would be less than 1/100th of 1 percent. (0.0095%) That is a tiny tiny tiny fraction. I suspect Ferrari will hold up pretty well. Its actually for all the reasons people often criticize today: they are trophy cars, not driven enough in normal life, etc. I think this means the Ferrari market sees the cars not as daily drivers, but rather as something different, unique, special, and they will continue to see them that way. I think these cars will be seen as even more of a speciality item and I think some will increase in value. Some might increase quite a lot in value. I think theres a good chance there will be a relatively small, but passionate group of sports car lovers around the world which will keep the cars running and drive them occasionally on road and on track.

However, I think for your typical SUV, like an X5 or Q7, they will be near worthless, but then again, they would be near worthless in many years anyway.

So what is an 812 SF going to be worth as the last of the unassisted (or unencumbered) Ferraris? Hard to say for sure. I would point out the F12b is the last front engine V12 designed by PF. How much value do you ascribe to that? I actually place some value in it. But I am just one. I think most would not say the F12b should have a premium because of the last PF factor. I think the production 812 SF will be much the same way, unless they only make a year or two production. I think if you want to play the last of the unassisted V12 game, its probably the 812 VS (Versione Speciale). Of course, I suppose its possible they attach some hybrid stuff as getting something like 850+ HP...

So the answer is no one knows, smoke 'em if you got 'em.

PS- my kids cannot wait to drive!

 

Truly don't care what other people think or if my car appreciates or not ... a modern F12 Ferrari is the greatest driving experience of my life. Every drive is like flying a jet on 4 wheels. That's all I need to know.

Cool story, what are you driving?

 

We once bought a car distributor in a particular country. We asked the dealers what the issues they perceived were and what they would like us to do about them. The answer came back that their customer base was older people and they needed younger people to replace them since they were worried that in the future their existing base would literally disappear.

So, we got to work trying to attract younger buyers. And failed. Plan 'B' was then instigated, which was go back to the old plan 'A' - keep selling to those older people. Here's what we learned;

- desire sells cars, marketing can only help to encourage desire if there is at least some already in the targeted customer and if the product supports it
- the original customer base was never in danger of disappearing, because new 'older' people are being made all the time

The point is, in 25 years time will the sound of a singing n/a engine still be wonderful, will speed still thrill, will there be those who love the technical advancements that make a car go fast, will there be those who want to make a statement about buying and owning an exotic car, will there be those who want to shock with the appearance of the car they arrive in? Millennial or not, the answer to that will be yes. It's just that there may be less ability for the industry to supply cars that have the blend of attributes that the cars we are driving today have. Making our cars all the more appealing to those in the future who 'wished they could drive in the golden-era' that we are currently living through.

That little boy in the crowd at the Spanish GP (and btw, well done Ferrari, very classy move. Smart too). For racing to still spark such emotions in so many youngsters should give us comfort that the petrolhead future is still secure, in some format or other. My cousin's son, who is the same age as my son - 14 - can identify every car on the road just by looking at a photo of the headlights. My own son was eagerly awaiting my return from a recent trip so he could talk to me about the Spanish GP and we re-watched it together.

I'm not sure being a millennial changes the basic urges of human nature - the thrill of speed, noise, feedback when driving a car. It will only change how those 'urges' will be expressed in the way products are designed and owned. That's the bit that will change the industry. But then they have a right to do that, because we have already done it ourselves. And when they do, they will revere the foundations on which their love for speed was born. Just as we do.

 

Thank you for posting this very clarifying view supported obviously on the knowledge of someone who knows well the motor car business and industry. The scene of the little boy you referred to is a great one and a perfect example of how brands like Ferrari continuo attracting the young ones from very early age. I know also the case of a 8 years old girl who is the daughter of some friends and she has a total obsession with my Ferrari to the point of telling her mother several times a day that her greatest desire in life is to be picked up at school with this car. Sports cars represent certainly a very small percentage in the total universe of motor cars and I think that as far as a part of the youngsters like the ones mentioned continuo to carry on their blood the unconditional love and passion for the present iconic brands like Ferrari the myth will never die.

 

If there is a giant leap in battery technology Petrol cars could become quite like horses, superseded as a means of practical transport and a hobby for the relatively well off. In such circumstances the value of the exotic and historic could be safe. After all if you want a posh ride are you going to go for a majestic cavallino or a tired pit pony?

The question will be this: will those in power allow us to to enjoy our hobby ? In London, our left leaning environmentalist Mayor is introducing a new tax, from I think 2019, whereby the driver of a pre-2006 petrol car will be charged £10 per day 7 days a week. If you drive to work you already pay £11 congestion charge so it mounts up quickly. Clearly once the precedent is set the charge is only going to go up in price and cover a widening definition of "unclean" vehicles.

Further we live in a society that is becoming increasingly safety conscious with ever more effective speed enforcement technology, so if the powers that be do let us drive ourselves in petrol vehicles it maybe at ever lower speeds (see UK "smart" motorways) with massive penalties for transgressions (see new UK speeding fines).

The future could be quite dull.

 

+1

My eldest daughter was doing 240kmh+ around Phillip Island Raceway in the wet in my F Type R at 16 yrs old... she's a car girl all the way!


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

What if we went back in time 20 years or so and I told you that in the future everyone would have a supercomputer in their pocket with a such a high resolution screen that you could not visually identify the individual pixels. What's more, this computer would have nearly 100% instant access to the vast majority of the world's information and content. And you could then view any art work you wanted nearly instantly. What do you think would happen to the art market and also to visits to museums.

I bring this up in the context of the artwork selling for a record amount. I suppose it could be a one off. I don't know the art market at all. While no analogy is perfect, and this one might be less perfect than others, I think the answer to the question I posed above is because its just different when you experience it live. As it is with cars. And when they are all kind of boring appliances; then cars with character, cars with history, cars that capture our imagination are the things people will really desire (to come back to Lukeylikey's excellent post). I think he is getting at a part of this. Because no desire = no sales. But I also think he is talking about cars more in general. I think Ferrari is more akin to one of the finer artists. Its hard to compare since the artists (so far as I know) didn't usually make multiple copies, where car companies do. But think of a car like the 250 GTO (the easy one everyone points to). There are 33 (or 36?). I'd say its pretty rare. If someone is willing to spend $110m+ on artwork, something a cynic could easily say- gee- I can see a perfect replication on my smartphone right now, or my 5K computer monitor, with spectacular resolution. They just don't get. Its the difference between watching the game vs being at the game. And I think that is going to be a huge factor for special cars going forward.

To 635 CSI's point about the future. Yes, it will probably be dull for people who want to drive in every day circumstances. Thus making things like these cars and track days even more desirable. I think you are right about the analogy to horses.

Something I left out of my points above. Consider: after a home, the next largest purchase most make is their car. It's been that way for nearly 100 years. As emotional creatures, there is a lot of emotion tied up in this. It's not going to be an instant switch over in 8 years time.

Btw- discussion of the artwork that just sold for the record.
http://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/silver-subscribed-private-forum-sponsored-yellow-compass-group/552374-basquiat-sells-%24111-000-000-00-a.html

 

I couldn't give a rat's behind what Millennials think. As a group, I find them to be daycare babies with a techno geek mentality, a deep sense of immaturity and an overdose of self importance. Cars are irrelevant to them. Its much more about high speed information and social networking. They do not see the logic in $400K cars no mater what the power source. There are, of course, exceptions. These are better known as car enthusiasts. Every generation has and will have them. Their interest will span all car eras from vintage to modern electric or whatever emerges.

To address the OP's question, Ferrari's, especially when bought new and driven, are generally very poor "investments" even within the car enthusiast community. We all know which cars are the exception. However, all previous model cars could be called "obsolete" from a technology or performance standpoint yet many are quite valuable. So obsolescence does not correlate to lack of value.

Think about it at a more basic level. Humans respond to physical stimulus. This is evident when you place a crying newborn in a rocker. We respond very favorably to certain sounds. We have a deep desire to express ourselves in an artful manner. We experience harmony in perfect aesthetics. This describes the from-birth prepositioned love for the unassisted NA Ferrari V12. Some of us remain in touch with those basic truths and will gladly pay what it takes to own and drive them. Others are more like Millennials. They fall asleep in their cereal while texting all night and wake up in their male rompers with Fruit Loops stuck to the side of their face.

 

IMHO in 10-15 years time investment grade 550, manual 430, last NA V12 (i.e. run of the mill 812SF), water cooled Porsche type cars will appeal less and less as the nostalgia for analog fades. Also like one of the posters above said there are way too many sports/super/hyper cars being produced. It happens every time in every industry. Robust demand, followed by few years of high production that meets the demand and the demand seems to keep increasing till it doesn't and then there is a massive glut and demand slowly disappears. I will give two recent examples, American Retail and Global Shipping Industry. Having said that, I do believe that truly limited edition cars (new and old) like 275 GTB, LaFerrari, Lamborghini Miura etc. will hold value.

As far as the music going on is concerned there will be abrupt stops, happens roughly every 10 years. We are due for one. I make no claims as to how or why this will happen but it will. I hope you have enough liquidity to hold on for 2-3 years of panic and downturn. If not then maybe you should get out while the going is still good. Btw I respect your honesty.

 

Liverpool FC ???????????????

 

I have two girls,9 and 6. My nine year old only likes our Tesla's because as she puts it "they are good for he earth". My 6 year old loves cars, especially Ferrari. She always wants to go out to the garage and clean them and sit in the driver seat when I am out there Whenever we go to the movies she runs to the arcade wanting to play the driving games. The other day I overheard the girls arguing. My 6 year old said "I'm going to get a Ferrari when I get my license" to which my 9 year old yelled back "you're never going to drive, cars are all going to drive themselves like Dad's Tesla and they won't even put steering wheels in the cars". I guess we will see who is right. Lol

 

Your family I believe is a very goo case study because you have in your garage a Ferrari and other sports cars with combustion engine Ferrari side by side with Tesla electric cars. I imagine that both of your daughters have been brought-up and educated in a very similar manner and they also had the opportunity to see all these diferente cars around from an early age. But the truth is each one of them developed by herselve a completely diferente taste and perception of what cars are. Your 6 years old probably is attracted and fascinated by the design and style of the 488 and by the sound but your 9 years old, may be sees a car not so much like a piece of motoring art but in a pragmatic and practical way as something that enables her moving quickly and safely from A to B with the less possible effort .
If your two daughters are a good statiscical case to evaluate the future tendency of today's youngsters in one or two decades, I would say that we can almost be sure that there will contineou to be a market for all the iconic sports cars with combustion engines as well as for the electric ones which don’t need a driver anymore.

 

I read your complete post and you are spot on. However if you dont just look at it as US centric and consider other countries the loss of motoring violation fines (in Australia $1bn per year - and growing) and parking violations (about $0.5bn) is massive. In addition if one does not have to park (use autonomous vehicle to drop u off) you lose the parking revenue as well. This does not even cover congestion tax, parking buildings revenue etc etc.

I for one love the idea of sticking it to the government and never being able to be fined as my EV simply wont allow it.

As to the 812 I think look at 458 depreciation (in the 458/488 thread) and that could be the path standard 812's go.

Interesting times ahead and Government better "beware what they wish for" IMO

 

My son who is in his twenties, drives a hot hatch, and is worried that he will not get the opportunity to drive an exotic sports car in London when he can eventually afford it.

As 635CSI says, the politics of the day are geared to pollution and road safety. Dual carriageways are being converted into single carriageways to accommodate cyclists, 20 mph zones are popping up everywhere, and iconic sports cars, whilst loved by some, are becoming socially unacceptable to others.

I agree that there should still be sufficient enthusiasm to maintain a strong market for the best sports cars, but I do wonder if those of us that love speed and sound are going to become a marginalised group.

 

+1

When the music stops, and it will, all these cars will crash in price. Keep powder dry and you can own any of these dream cars, and ride the wave back up again. It's coming.

 

I am not so sure about the crash in price when the music stops. The music stopping this last time did not seem to affect things in this price range.

 

Tdf, aperta, 911r....there's a lot of semi premium cars that are over inflated.

F40 and even enzo went down before up.