Get the Ferrari... it may not be the most fiscally responsible thing to do right now. But I can tell you from my personal experience that sometimes, by the time you achieve moderate financial success, things have changed so much in your life that owning and driving a Ferrari become irresponsible or impractical in other ways. Then you end up dropping by the Ferrari's forums wondering "what if?"
I "understand" currency and commodity markets. My view is not disimilar to yours but my focus is more in line with exerpted pieces from an article below. I suggest those looking to the future take a close look. Land, especially raw land and (not advised by article) commrcial property significantly undervalued and vacant, offer real opportunity. You do need a strong financial sheet. Best "The action is being dominated by large so-called opportunity funds, or "vulture funds," that seek annualized returns of 18% to 25% on deals ranging from $20 million to well more than $100 million. Major players include Blackstone Real Estate Partners, Apollo Real Estate Advisors, Fortress Investment Fund and Contrarian Capital Management. The type of investment -- raw land, single-family tracts, condo construction, condo conversions -- depends on the expertise of the fund managers as well as opportunity. Exit scenarios, almost always part of the investment strategy, include flipping property immediately to domestic or overseas buyers, renting it out before reselling it or some combination."
Alex, what do you think about prices now, to high for investment? Which car you think will be reeeeeealy god one?
This is a little off subject, but since you asked . . . we have clients in Europe that are moving money into the US right now in a variety of forms. Most of it is in cash which will be invested in privately administered stock funds. These clients are moving money from the Euro (or Pound) to the Dollar. You can buy lots of dollars right now with just a few Euro or Pounds. We actually use companies in the Cayman Islands or Bermuda to "clone" the fund so that some investors can participate in the US without being subject to US taxation. (A cloned fund is one which operates in the US and buys, say, 100 shares of Intel. In the Caymans, we would also buy 100 shares of Intel through a fund there--keeping the investor's money out of the US.) For clients with more than $5 million So, my statement that the smart money is "buying dollars" is actually an abbreviation. They are actually taking Euros, converting them to dollars and buying assets with the dollars. Let's say that the stock returns 10%, but dollar strengthens by 10%, also. The client sells the stock and converts back to Euro and makes an aggregate return of about 21% To give you our forecast . . . we think the dollar will be up 20% over a 4 year period from its low. This adds about 5% per year to your return. As for the second part of your question . . . we actually think the US economy will be weaker throughout 2008, especially in the real estate sector. The economy may "seem" better because of economic stimulus and the fallout of politicians in an election year, but the fundamentals of the economy will be more challenging. We have some difficult times ahead--WHICH IS, AHEM, THE POINT OF THIS THREAD--DON'T BUY AN EXPENSIVE CAR UNLESS YOU CAN PAY CASH. (Got us back on track??) Accordingly, with a cheap dollar and with relatively strong interest rates (not Treasuries, mind you--but real lending costs, including spreads) money will seek this yield and the dollar will strengthen, in spite of a tough economy. The currency is NOT linked to economic performance so that you can say: "Economy good; therefore, Dollar good (meaning strong)." You can have a strong dollar in a bad economy and vice versa. OK, if you want more, send me a PM. I think we can let the board relax for a while.
In general, older cars (at least 40 years old - 1968 was when the DOT &EPA essentially ruined US version cars). Significant cars that can be counted in less than two numbers, but preferably one number (Less than 99 made) GT & race cars - 250 SWB, 275 GTB, Lussos, TDF's TR's etc, particularly special versions like alloy bodied cars, Cal Spider especially covered headlight cars etc. Dino's have accelerated in value and really good examples with no work required will continue to rise. I personally prefer fully restored, good to go cars and I'll pay a premium for them. I don't speculate and I buy cars I like to keep, but sometimes the market makes it impossible. Case in point - Daytona Spyders have gone from the $600K's last year to the $1.5 mils this year. I have no idea why. Never buy a car with a story - re-bodied, re-engined, modified extensively well after initial production. They may wind up being good, but most "stories" cars are compromised in value Of course all of the foregoing is my very specific and personal opinion and I really don't care what anyone else thinks who might want a debate.
Back to the original post - There has got to be a way for you to do it all...$$$$ women and 360/430 F car
Demand for Daytona Spyders took off exponentially holy cow. 1.5 is a really big number. I can't believe Dinos are worth what they are too. My dad and I found a 246 GTS in a tow yard in Houston where it had sat for 2 years after being taken from a drug dealer (who was in Huntsville by the time we found it! ) It was a mess with pine needles coming out of the carbs and my dad was just like what a nightmare but it was all there and you could have had it for $1,000 easy. In fact, I know for a fact that the car was later crushed because nobody (except me!) wanted it. I remember when people used to hold 246s inferior to my 308 in the 1980s... Correct me if I'm wrong but I think a 246 GTS well sorted is worth $230K +/-. That's not too shabby!
What a great first post on Fchat! I think you've very masterfully described my life thus far also!! And boy don't I wonder "what if" everyday I read through this forum. I've often heard it said that the only travelling you'll regret in your life is the travelling you never got around to doing. And I agree totally with that. Similarly, I think never owning a Ferrari, if you want one and can afford it (that's the key isn't it!), will be something you really regret when you're too old to do so. As for cash vs finance, I'm staying out of that debate!
+2 In retrospect I have never missed the money require to upgrade to a more desirable hotel, home or car.
Josh, I've heard some pretty tall tales from you, but now you're claiming to be a CFA? When I asked if you were a Chartered Financial Analyst, that was a rhetorical question. You and I already know the answer. You are not a CFA. In fact, I spoke to a friend who has passed each of the Level I, II, and III exams, met the work experience requirements, and is a regular member of the CFA Institute. I asked him to check for your name on the member directory for all of California and North America. Your name does not appear on the member directory. Maybe you panicked and decided to drop the three letter acronym because someone called you out on a thread. Claiming to be a CFA does not give your response more credibility. Now if you're a CFA, you have my email, my phone number. Prove it to me, and I will be the first to admit I am wrong.
No you silly, he was a CFA in his past life. Whats the matter with you? Dont you believe in reincarnation? -Peter
LOL Check out his response. Talk about obfuscating a response. "which equates to buying at spot vs a future contract/forward points be it on 180 or 360 again on an individual micro level." LOL Peter, if you only knew half the BS Josh (SANguru) told me and other Fchat members, you'd be rolling on the floor.
OK, do you think Jim Rogers has any credibility? He's predicting soaring commodities and a crashing dollar. There will be swings both up and down but my long term bet is DOWN. http://youtube.com/watch?v=PXhqYyOdBXo
I'm with Ray on this one. It's great if you can finance a vehicle and have a plan with the money you'll be saving up front, but, if you're in the "I've got $6k extra a month, Ferrari time!" category...well, you're really not. That's probably the worst investment you could ever make if you're only pulling an extra $72k/yr. Obviously most F owners buy for entertainment rather than investment, but, if you have second thoughts about the money - then you just don't have enough. It's not just F cars, P cars too...even $60k, maybe it's better invested until you're at the point where you own a vehicle and say "Hey well it's only $120k", cause you're in the place to do that. It doesn't mean you can't have it, and it certainly doesn't mean you can't enjoy it, but, if you're in the right place financially it will never be a question.
OK, I was thinking of posting 1-3K women that I was talking about, but I found a similar one from our very own Fchat showing what you might get: http://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/showthread.php?t=162423
I think he is an alarmist trying to create a self fulfilling prophecy. He is personally shorting the dollar hoping to make short term gains. He is dead wrong here. I am betting big time that he is wrong. He is the best short to come along in a long time. I love guys who think everyone else is a fool. Jim Rogers, according to Jim Rogers is the only one in America who knows what is going on. Gotta love the balls of the man, but they're gonna get bruised......
He is not looking for short term gains, he has been short the dollar for a while now. He is deep in the money and is not concerned with short term rallies that we may see over the next couple years. He has been long commodities for several years and that has paid off huge, also was short fannie and freddie from a few years ago calling them a house of cards and he was dead right, made a ton of cash. He has deep pockets and can wait things out for years. A rally in the dollar for the next 18 months has been repeated ad nauseum by traders and when you see a consensus like that it is usually wrong. You never know though, it's a gamble and you may be on the right side of the bet.
The beauty of all of this, without an exactly defined time frame, is that everyone can be right at some point on their personal timeline. I will generally go with broad market consensus of market makers, over the lone cry of the contrarian every time. The conditions to validate his POV will arise every once in a while and he can claim success. It helps that he has the the deep pockets to keep riding the train until it comes to his station.
Julius Westheimer (aka Chicken Little on Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser) was right twice in 29 years. Westheimer made fool out of himself screaming that the end was near during a series of broad and very long bull markets. What a sad clown he became and Jim Rogers has become.
days and days of entertainment! It never gets old man, we'll be telling these stories when we're 70yrs old. Good stuff!
