360 Pricing Formula | FerrariChat

360 Pricing Formula

Discussion in '360/430' started by ddemuro, Nov 28, 2009.

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  1. ddemuro

    ddemuro Formula 3

    Nov 16, 2006
    2,129
    San Diego
    Full Name:
    Doug
    As per this thread of 430 pricing statistical analysis, I have run regression analysis on 360 pricing and come up with the following formula to determine the price of your 360. Do note that Challenge Stradales are not included and, as with the 430, this formula will become obsolete momentarily as prices fall!

    1. Start at $145,439.20.
    2. Subtract:
    - $29,170.20 for a 2005.
    - $35,004.24 for a 2004.
    - $40,838.28 for a 2003.
    - $46,672.32 for a 2002.
    - $52,506.36 for a 2001.
    - $58,340.40 for a 2000.
    - $64,174.44 for a 1999.
    3. Subtract $0.78 per mile.
    4. Subtract $2,333.39 for F1.
    5. Add $12,189.63 if Rosso Corsa.
    6. Add $10,779.51 if a Spider.
    7. Add $4,910.79 if at a factory dealer.
    8. Add $3,688.12 for shields.
    9. Add $1,300.13 for a Challenge Grill.

    Two interesting things came up with the 360 prices: one, manuals are priced higher. I hesitate to say they're "worth more" since these numbers are dictated by asking prices, but they are indeed priced higher than F1. Perhaps Michael Sheehan's theory about buyers staying away from the potential pitfalls of huge repairs from things like F1 transmissions is beginning to come true. Whatever the reason, this sample is huge (200 cars) and the result is statistically significant - and manuals have higher asking prices.

    The other interesting thing is that the second-highest determining factor after age of the car is not mileage, but whether or not the car is red. You'll note that Rosso Corsa actually adds more to the value of the car than whether it's a convertible. Say what you will, but check out AutoTrader - the highest-mileage, worst-shape, oldest 360s aren't red, while the low-mile cream puff 360s are nearly always Rosso Corsa. I was surprised by the amount that red plays a part, but it appears to play a large one indeed.

    Again, I don't want to play the 'crazy pricing thread' game, but as a data geek I thought some might find this interesting. :)
     
  2. adrenalater

    adrenalater Karting

    Dec 8, 2006
    126
    SF Bay Area
    Full Name:
    Jeff Stevens
    Yes, VERY interesting! Thank you muchly for spending the time to work this out!

    Jeff
     
  3. hifipj

    hifipj Formula Junior

    Sep 26, 2009
    402
    Doug - very accurate in your assessment, thanks for the good work. As one who's been shopping all year for a 360, I can say you are right on about both red and the 6-speed. Good 6-speeds are hard to find, and in an interesting reversal they USED to sell for less than the F1 (after all, F1 was a 10k option when new) but now sell at a premium. The '00 Red F1 I've purchased falls farily close to your formula.
     
  4. blkdiablo33

    blkdiablo33 F1 Rookie

    Jul 12, 2004
    4,366
    i think thats very close to the real #rs great job and taking the time to do this
     
  5. andrew911

    andrew911 F1 Rookie
    Silver Subscribed

    Sep 8, 2003
    2,887
    Northern NJ
    #5 andrew911, Nov 28, 2009
    Last edited: Nov 28, 2009
    My theory from 4+ years ago was that people buying a new 360 wanted the latest technology and the highest performance....something like 70%-80%+ were ordered with the F1.... and that in time the sticks would be worth more.

    As the cars age besides any additional maint. costs which the market factors in, is simple supply and demand. If even 50% of used buyers want a stick it makes a significant difference in the demand side. I for one only wanted a stick- there is nothing "wrong" with an F1, it's just that I have been dreaming and saving for years and could care less about a couple of seconds faster on the fiorano race track, I wanted a stick period. I would expect the difference in price between a stick and an F1 to become larger over the years...
     
  6. porsche racer

    porsche racer Formula Junior

    Jun 2, 2006
    747
    southern california
    Full Name:
    arthur
    my car is rosso scuderia and it's a very rare color for 360. what's the amount for that?
     
  7. sidekick

    sidekick Karting

    May 24, 2004
    184
    New York
    Full Name:
    Marty
    Can you give a CS price formula?
     
  8. dm_n_stuff

    dm_n_stuff Four Time F1 World Champ
    Lifetime Rossa Owner

    makes my 2000 coupe worth at retail $69,000 give or take. A little low, but within statistical averages I guess.

    Formula doesn't take into account several variables. Overall condition of car. Daytona interior, sports seats, red calipers, any number of items that will affect retail pricing.

    Recent major? That's worth $$$

    And some bad colors retail for less than others. Try selling a silver/red (not burgundy) car. See what number it will bring.

    DM
     
  9. hardtop

    hardtop F1 World Champ

    Jan 31, 2002
    11,285
    Colorado
    Full Name:
    Dave
    The premium for sticks does not surprise me. A number of years ago, Bill Orth (used to be sales manager at FOD) told me he was paying more for early 360's with sticks. The commentary was that used buyers were different. They were more concerned with potential costs on an out of warranty car than they were about getting the latest technology. The info on Fchat would surely indicate that paddle cars are more problematic. 430's may be a little better but there are still plenty of posts here about problems with F1 systems. It would not surprise me if 430 with sticks eventually are worth more especially since the 458 will not have one. Sorry to highjack the thread. Good job Doug, an interesting project for sure.

    Dave

    PS: that large a premium for red is a big surprise! I wonder if it will diminish with more cars in the sample.
     
  10. alberto

    alberto Formula 3

    Aug 25, 2001
    2,401
    San Diego
    Full Name:
    Alberto
    Very nice work. Thanks for posting it.

    With repect to the following:
    I assume that because the OP's analysis is based on asking prices, the sellers have basically built these variations into the pricing. Additionally, the statistics is based on the "average" (statistically speaking), so there will be outliers at to condition and some of these other factors. So in other words, the formula will not necessarilly be exact for any given car, but is a representation of what the "average" car with the characteristics that you have outlined will have. Correct?

    Alberto
     
  11. ddemuro

    ddemuro Formula 3

    Nov 16, 2006
    2,129
    San Diego
    Full Name:
    Doug
    Thanks for all the positive comments everyone - I wasn't quite sure how this would be received here but I'm glad everyone has gotten at least some use out of my work!

    I wish I knew. Unfortunately there's only a handful of Rosso Scuderia cars for sale at the moment (if that), and that's nowhere near enough for statistical significance and a good estimate. With that said, keeping in mind this data, I can imagine that the price bump would be measurable but pretty small.

    Because the sample size for the CS is so small (only 9 for sale on AutoTrader at the moment) I included just mileage for the formula but found (unsurprisingly) a gigantic correlation. So the formula is:

    - Start at $171,926.80.
    - Subtract $1.55 per mile.

    Despite the very small sample size, mileage was extremely statistically significant indicating that 360CS prices are incredibly sensitive to mileage and not very sensitive to much else. 360CS owners are a very picky bunch and I would love to analyze 360CS prices more using other factors (color and stripe, most importantly), but unfortunately there just aren't enough cars to do so.

    Age, mileage, red/not red, and - less so - transmission were so vastly more important to the total price than Challenge Grille and fender shields - which I did account for - that sport seats, painted calipers, etc. would likely have almost no effect. In fact, I actually included modular wheels in this regression, but the statistical difference it made was so insignificant I actually didn't even include it in the thread.

    I agree that recent major is worth some money - though less so on a 360 than on a 355 of course - but that is quite difficult to determine, as you can imagine. Another interesting variable would've been whether the car was a US car or a Euro car, but I can't imagine there are many Euro cars available for comparison.

    Of course I can never really get every variable, but this formula does account for the important ones.

    Me neither, for the exact reason you (and Bill Orth) state. Used buyers are different and as andrew911 says, if the proportion on the used market is different from the proportion on the new market, you'll be looking at a higher premium placed on manuals. I'm not necessarily sure if it indicates that F1 is less demanded than when new, but it certainly means that manual is demanded more.

    Orth is a smart guy. When I worked at FoD, I couldn't convince a few of my co-workers in the parts department that the Testarossa's engine was actually a V12 and not a Boxer 12. We called Orth over since he was widely agreed to be the dealership's authority on all things Ferrari, and I was quite pleased when he sided with me. :D

    I was surprised too, but I don't think it would change in a larger sample. The premium was unbelievably significant. Statisticians consider variables significant if they beat a 95% significance level - red actually made a 99.9999992% significance level, so it's beyond correlation and definitely a causal factor that helps determine value. If I were to speculate, I'd say my guess is that's another thing used buyers want in a Ferrari that's likely their first one - a red one!
     
  12. blkdiablo33

    blkdiablo33 F1 Rookie

    Jul 12, 2004
    4,366
    besides red being top dollar color i think yellow is right there with it
     
  13. wolfe F360

    wolfe F360 Karting

    May 7, 2009
    195
    Tennessee
    Full Name:
    Wolfe
    very interesting
     
  14. cove26

    cove26 Formula 3

    Nov 13, 2007
    1,135
    CT
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    Mike
    Rosso Corsa will always command a higher price. One because it is sexy as hell and two because when many people think of Ferrari, they think of the red. I don't think Giallo Fly will command anywhere near what the Rosso's do.
     
  15. hardtop

    hardtop F1 World Champ

    Jan 31, 2002
    11,285
    Colorado
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    Dave
    +1.Yellow tends to go in and out of style. It was pretty popular in the 70's but downright rare in the 80's and early 90's. Very popular circa 95-05 but last time I talked to a dealer about colors, I was told it was falling out again. Silver is another that seems to come and go and I like silver myself. When it comes to Ferraris, I suspect the only color that will conistently bring good money besides red is black. Here I go highjacking the thread again.

    Dave
     
  16. Senna1994

    Senna1994 F1 World Champ
    Silver Subscribed

    Nov 11, 2003
    13,163
    Orange County
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    Anthony T
    Right on the money Dave.
     
  17. Jetfire

    Jetfire Karting

    Oct 23, 2009
    184
    Dallas San Diego
    Thanks for the time in computing this formula!
     
  18. ddemuro

    ddemuro Formula 3

    Nov 16, 2006
    2,129
    San Diego
    Full Name:
    Doug
    Out of curiousity I did the analysis including yellow cars. It has some effect, adding a little over $3k to the price. While it has more effect than a Challenge Grille, it's less important than shields and even factory dealer, so it's not a big determinant. It certainly has nowhere near the effect of Rosso Corsa.

    I never really thought about how yellow comes and goes but it's really true. Yellow 308s and 328s are practically nonexistent, while 348s are somewhat popular and 355s are quite common. I rarely see yellow 430s.

    Sure - thanks for the kind words, all - glad it could be helpful!
     
  19. DMaury

    DMaury Formula 3

    Mar 27, 2007
    1,993
    Ponchatoula, LA
    Comes out to 91767.76 for my 01 spider. Sounds about right for retail asking price, but suspect it would sell for a bit lower actual dollars. Having said that, I doubt that changing the color from yellow to red would add 10K to the asking/selling price. ;) Good formula!
     
  20. pmotoring

    pmotoring Formula Junior

    May 8, 2009
    693
    HONG KONG
    Full Name:
    PAT PAT
    Does it mean Rosso Corsa has the same price with the Rosso Scuderia??

    Most of the Red 430 in Hong Kong is Rosso Suderia, just for your information.
     
  21. ddemuro

    ddemuro Formula 3

    Nov 16, 2006
    2,129
    San Diego
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    Doug
    I only looked at Rosso Corsa (although I didn't realize the difference was so slight). I imagine Rosso Scuderia has something of a similar effect on prices, though perhaps not as strong.
     
  22. Viper01GTS

    Viper01GTS Karting

    Oct 30, 2006
    98
    SC
    Thank you for putting all of this info together! This helps out when I'm looking for a 360 right now. ;)
     
  23. Dohangs

    Dohangs F1 Rookie
    Owner Rossa Subscribed

    Oct 31, 2008
    3,092
    Florida
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    Spiro
    Thanks for doing all the math. Interesting to think that the color is the second most important factor in price. Would color be as important for other model Ferrari's? Say a 348 spider for instance?
     
  24. fredf355

    fredf355 Karting

    Nov 1, 2005
    72
    Dallas Texas
    It is funny how much rigorous mathmatics determines things over the wrong data set.

    Having watched and bought cars over many years, run this same analysis over two or more famililes (355's, 348's) and you'll find the year sensitivity is non exisitent. By the way, this is the same factor that made 460 buyers hold their breath 18 months ago.

    And then they tubed.

    Thanks...F

    PS God bless MBA's (mine cost me a bunch of dumb-ass mistakes like this with cars - but put me ahead overall}.
     
  25. brokenarrow

    brokenarrow F1 Rookie

    Sep 25, 2006
    3,737
    Txass
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    Bill
    Surprising. Also, I've noticed most for sale need some service; major, belts or brakes, or all the above. Oh, but they'll polish them up good and nice and say the car has all it's papers.

    Buying a Ferrari is the biggest nut and shell game in town. If you don't know what to look for, you'll get a statistically average car, if you're lucky.

    I'd like to see a study on how much money is spent on the car in the first year!!
     

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