Hey all, As I continue to get positive feedback on my first 360 pricing analysis thread which I made about three months ago - and because it keeps getting bumped to the top of the forum with new questions or comments - I decided to use a rare block of free time today to make a new one reflecting up-to-date market conditions. Using regression analysis, I've taken data from 183 different Ferrari 360s on AutoTrader and the features which we'd expect to affect their value. The data is below. Please remember that this formula only accounts for asking prices, which can often be quite different from selling prices. Number of vehicles: 183 Average price: $106,614 Average mileage: 13,217 (median is 11,000) Formula: - start at $141,328.30. - subtract: ------- $24,371.60 for a 2005. ------- $29,245.92 for a 2004. ------- $34,120.24 for a 2003. ------- $38,994.56 for a 2002. ------- $43,868.88 for a 2001. ------- $48,743.20 for a 2000. ------- $53,617.52 for a 1999. - subtract $0.80 per mile. - add $11,233.14 for a Spider. - subtract $762.56 for an F1 transmission. - add $9,732.29 for Rosso Corsa. - add $476.36 for a Challenge Grille. - add $4,426.57 for shields. (?!) - add $2,450.32 for a factory dealer. It appears F1s have closed the gap on manuals. You'll remember that last time, F1 was a $2,300+ deduction versus manual; now it's only $762.56 which is almost meaningless when it comes to the price of these cars. For whatever reason, dealers are now pricing F1s lower (or manuals higher). I'd like to think it's due to my last pricing analysis, but in reality I think supply and demand have more do with it. Red still holds a crazy premium and shields hold an oddly high one too. About 70% of 360s have shields. The rest is as expected. But just for fun, here's the three "best buys" based on this analysis, and the three "you've got to be dreaming" sale-proof prices. I've also included the percentage each vehicle is above or below where the formula predicts they'll be. Best buys: 1. 2003 Ferrari 360 Spider - $85,000 (-24.91%) 2. 2004 Ferrari 360 Spider - $95,551 (-19.97%) 3. 2000 Ferrari 360 Modena - $71,899 (-19.70%) Sale-proof prices: 1. 2005 Ferrari 360 Spider - $189,900 (+39.87%) 2. 2004 Ferrari 360 Spider - $169,500 (+35.17%) 3. 2001 Ferrari 360 Spider - $139,500 (+27.35%) I've included some graphs this time to display some of the more interesting bits of data. These come from Microsoft Excel, on which I did much of this analysis. Feel free to respond here or privately with questions or comments! I've already got all the data on the 355, by the way - I hope to get that up tonight. Not sure if I'll do 430 but if there's demand and I have time, I can probably crank it out. Image Unavailable, Please Login Image Unavailable, Please Login Image Unavailable, Please Login Image Unavailable, Please Login
stop after I buy...I don't wanna know Seriously Big D...EXCELLENT work! I used your 1st model on some cars that caught my eye...now I'm gonna go back and see what happens. Like FD sez...WTF on the shields?
Thanks Doug. Nice work, but the shields $$$ number sure makes the analysis look funny. I'm willing to sell my shields for $4k.
Impressive analysis. Adds to my feeling I bought well. Question for the group: My car has a factory sunroof. Apparently, these seem to be pretty rare. Even the local F dealer service rep commented that he couldn't recall the last time he saw one. Anybody think that adds any value? Just curious. I love the car so I'm well past worrying about did I pay too much, etc.
Been discussed a bit... http://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/showthread.php?t=272965&highlight=sunroof If I had to guess, I don't think it adds or subtracts from the value. But you are right, it is rare.
Thanks all! Glad you guys could get some enjoyment/knowledge out of my side project! Compiling the data is a laborious process which takes forever but it's fun to see the end product. In statistics, the p-value is a number that determines significance. Any p-value under 0.05 means that the variable plays a part in price determination with 95% certainty - the statistical threshold for significance. In the case of the shields, the p-value was 0.016 - meaning that they play a causal role in determining the price with 99.984% certainty. I was shocked! But this is true over a sample of 184 cars. I wish I had an explanation! I wish I knew, but there are very few cars available with a factory sunroof. That said, the one on AutoTrader (and there's just one) that has a factory sunroof is priced higher than a non-sunroof car should be (about 3%, according to the formula - works out to just under $3k). So at least someone out there thinks it does!
Well done ! Your research n presentation are professional and could be a posted as a grad-paper ! Hope to see similiar research on F430......
Thanks for taking the time to collect and analyze this data. Seems that when you take numbers strictly for face value, something is "lost in the equation". One glaring hole in the final numbers are the premium for shields. My guess would be that there really are extenuating circumstances RELATED to cars with shields and not the shields themselves. Just hope that anybody looking at these numbers as an absolute, they would apply at least a little common sense. (not picking on the OP's work as I think it's fantastic; more a shout out to any possible sellers/buyers who might not be willing to negotiate due to these numbers)
I agree. The shields premium is statistically curious. But as I mentioned above, they do form a causal relationship with prices for whatever reason. Perhaps dealers specifically go after cars with shields. Perhaps owners who specified shields kept the mileage off their cars, or were more likely to get a red car, or more likely to get a convertible. Whatever the reasoning, I agree that I would expect buyers not to take this guide as the bible - it is not - and apply a little common sense. No doubt, shields can be purchased and mounted for less than the value they add to the car. Oddly, I just posted the data for the 355 and shields hold a similar premium - this time at ~91% significance, which is still enough to identify a causal relationship. Thanks for the kind words.
i think the shields premium is related to another characteristic of those cars. Cars without shields rarely have other options. However, cars that have upgraded seats, exhausts, grills, etc almost always have shields.
Definitely possible - good theory. And since my analysis didn't take exhausts or seats (or modular wheels) into account, it certainly could be that the shield premium is really a catch-all for shields plus other options.
from new guy on the block Definitely wanted shields (and although would have also preferred Daytona's or cf seats) otherwise a pretty 'basic' spider 2004 6 spd Spider One Local Owner 19kms Local Ferrari Sold and Serviced Maj Service Belts etc (late 2008) Argento (i did not want red/yellow) actually wanted Titanum/TDF/Argento in that order Blk interior w/Wht stitching Other Niceties: Tubi CF engine tidbits Red Calipers ~$150 cdn (taxes in) there are a few a bit older sitting at almost same range $130 +taxes but i really liked the history of this one ...believe it or not by the time I brought over a US car w/ PPI's, FOA letters, Canadian F-Dealership Letter, Exchange, Duties, etc...would have been practically at same price point. Cheers! & Great Job!! ..will post more & pics when delivered
Doug, amazing work! These are the asking prices, what do you see as the spread between asking and selling prices - specifically in this market (today) re: F360's? From my anecdotal research, I'm seeing 20-25% spread - which seems extreme. Jim