Tesla's "miracle"(any opinions from mech./software engineers? | FerrariChat

Tesla's "miracle"(any opinions from mech./software engineers?

Discussion in 'Technology' started by bitzman, Dec 29, 2016.

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  1. bitzman

    bitzman F1 Rookie
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    Not quite as big as parting the Red Sea, but pretty impressive is the news video from 2 days ago or so of a Tesla Model X in Holland proceeding on freeway when the dash beeps and the Tesla begins braking (not sure if that was automatic or if the BEEP signaled the driver of danger and he applied the brakes) At any rate the car ahead or the car ahead of the Tesla impacts another vehicle and one of the two flips but the Tesla driver is safe, having stopped short.The miracle to me is that the Tesla car sensed an accident was imminent at least ten seconds before the accident happened! So that makes up, in my mind, for the accident of the show-off Tesla driver who hit the white tractor trailer that cut him off, with the Tesla cameras failing to delineate the truck from the white sky.(that was a fatality) Just a damn shame the Tesla driver in Holland, once he or she knew, couldn't warn the car ahead--most civilian cars don't have loudspeakers and who knows if the driver of the car ahead would have listened to a voice coming out of the blue telling him to hit the brakes hard.

    Even if Tesla never made another car I think this feature could be sold to every automaker (NOTE I am not a Tesla stockholder...)
     
  2. donv

    donv Two Time F1 World Champ
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    I own a Model S, and it does pay attention to the car ahead of the car you are immediately following. I don't know where this person had the collision warning set (I keep mine on medium), but that probably had something to do with it.
     
  3. bitzman

    bitzman F1 Rookie
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    this accident avoidance thing in Holland is close to deserving the word "miracle." The guy in Florida was show-boating, known for sending videos to his friends of him driving his Tesla "hands off."

    The Tesla in Holland may have been a model X, I don't know if that has more "reach" than the Model S.

    I would compare this incident to like a Secret Service man guarding POTUS anticipating someone in a crowd is going to draw a gun and eliminating the threat before the assassin's gun clears the holster
     
  4. Rifledriver

    Rifledriver Three Time F1 World Champ

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    Whatever. Car manufacturers have been working on this since the 50's. We put a man on the moon in less time.

    By the way, you forgot to mention the fatality crash in China. So the Tesla system is batting .333
     
  5. Igor Ound

    Igor Ound F1 Veteran

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    +1 For one minor situation like this publicised everywhere there might have been and there will be thousands other ones we'll never know about where the system didn't work that well.
     
  6. Rifledriver

    Rifledriver Three Time F1 World Champ

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    #6 Rifledriver, Dec 30, 2016
    Last edited: Dec 30, 2016
    Packard had a system on the road in the early 50's, used vacuum tubes. Could not discern between a house at the T intersection coming up and a car stopped in the road. Lots of companies have been working on it ever since with all of them building upon what everyone else has already done. The fact that this is as far as we have come in over 60 years and at least partially due to the largess of the American taxpayer? I am not impressed.
     
  7. Entropy

    Entropy Formula 3
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    I'm a 30 year tech guy, ranging from AI (going back to the "fuzzy logic" days) and into a mix of today's automation and IoT world, with a lot of time spent in automotive.

    First off, credit to Tesla for pushing this the furthest so far. Part of their success is they are a tech company first, car company second (that helps, believe me, though all the other OEM's are catching up). A bigger driver of their success is their target market are overwhelmingly early adopters and believers - even if the tech itself is lagging

    (For the record, I'm a chronic early adopter. I was the guy who bought and swore by the Apple Newton...)

    All the marketing BS and wishful thinking aside, the sensors on current gen cars are at the "idiot light" stage. Tesla's system uses a lot of sensors (not unique to Tesla) and some pretty good software code to try and 1) interpret 2) analyze 3) decide and 4) act. The continued challenge is the world does not present itself in logical ways. In this case, multiple inputs ranging from the DCC to the lane following to the optics of "cross traffic" (an object accelerating towards the path of travel) could trigger the system. I guess that's all good, but very far from conclusive.

    Hell, the DCC in our new Golf triggered just moments before I hit a deer last week...

    Believe me, I'm a fan of "automation". In reality, automation works well in controlled environments exceptionally well. As an example, pilots flying a modern aircraft tend to be monitoring the automation as much as flying themselves....but they are trained and focused on monitoring it - plus believe it or not, the airways and flight ops are relatively controlled environments compared to the roads. Last, the number of accidents due to misapplication of automation or failure to understand it are pretty staggering (Air France, Colgan Air), so the risk of failure (or over reliance) is still pretty apparent.

    It won't be 30 years until we have this figured out, but it won't be 10 years either.
     
  8. bitzman

    bitzman F1 Rookie
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    I think in cross traffic your autonomous car could see all the players, and either retard speed or speed up to clear them all. But let me paint a much darker scenerio.

    You are in your autonomous-mobile doing 50 mph on a two laner (one lane each way) and ahead of you about 30 ft. is a garbage truck with a heavy loaded dumpster that is poised over the rear and the dumpster suddenly falls to the pavement. You don't have enough time to come to a full stop. The autopilot's mission I presume is to, protect the car it's in and the driver and passengers if sny. On the sidewalk to the left is a mom with three toddlers trailing behind her. To the right , on the sidewalk, is an elderly lady with a cane. Who does the autonomous car take out? Or does it just say "No good choices" and hit the loaded dumpster?

    Don't say "Well. my autonomous car would never follow so close that the space between is always enough to stop safely." I think they go the prevailing speed of the car ahead but don't build wide gaps between them and the vehicle ahead to the tune of one car length for every 10 mph...
     
  9. energy88

    energy88 Two Time F1 World Champ
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  10. BMW.SauberF1Team

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  11. bitzman

    bitzman F1 Rookie
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    You say, in 60 years, autonomous hasn't come that far but compare it to the changeover in photography--as a former film user, I was astonished how fast digital took over from film--at Costco now, I never see people ordering prints from film anymore, only digital. I was one of the hold-outs , caught with my pants down with a film camera when the rest of hte world switched over to digital, (I had hard time selling my Nikon F3. Like trying to sell a typewriter...) There are teenagers today who have never shot a picture on film. Plus it' s happening all over with phones replacing cameras (camera sales down 28%). So I think the pace of acceptance of autonomous is occurring even more rapidly than the digital takeover of photography and the only roadblocks to full acceptance of autonomous cars across the board will be major lawsuits when an autonomous car goes into the crowd, kills a major celebrity, etc. I'm talking a Supreme Court decision (which the robots will win)

    By the way one good quote (maybe I saw it here?) was "at least there will be a fun period when we have sex with robots before they kill us."

    Lest you get the idea I am not an enthusiast, back when I had a GTC/4, one of my thrills was to blast through the Malibu tunnel at 7,500 rpm in third....in the future the robots won't permit such excess displays of speed...
     
  12. tundraphile

    tundraphile F1 Veteran

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    This was discussed extensively in the thread about the Florida fatality.

    It really is not a mechanical engineering question, but entirely one of software development.

    That, and human psychology which cannot be ignored.

    I have little doubt that a skilled attentive driver will always be better at anticipating accidents and avoiding them than any system of cameras and software inside a vehicle. But humans are not always attentive.
     
  13. bitzman

    bitzman F1 Rookie
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    Trying to get the drivers more attentive is the focus of a new
    California law that takes effect Jan 1 2017 says you can't hand hold phone but square that with the fact Detroit is selling cars based on how much interactive technology you can project on the computer screen or else people won't buy the car. The car with the most toys wins. The modern generation doesn't want to be weaned away from their electronic goodies, but insists on reading their e-mail, etc. while driving, so it's only when laws are passed forbidding any activity for the driver not driver related , or the next step will be the cars themselves lock out availability of those extraneous distractions so we can began to get the driver back to the business of driving.

    Also drivers who are distracted have to know, their cars might be keeping records as to what distractions were going at the time of an accident and thus the awards in lawsuits knocked down, such as the Tesla driver who hit the tractor trailer, wasn't there a video player connected to the dash playing a video when the police arrived? If his relatives were suing Tesla for failure of their autopilot to save him, that might come into reducing the judgement against Tesla --that he was distracting himself instead of paying attention to driving (but why should he be bothered with steering, he was on "autopilot" right?)
     

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