Thanks for posting the report. I have no issues with the auction houses. The market is what the market is and auction houses are simply facilitators between buyers and sellers. Superheated markets always create aggressive behaviors on all sides -- sellers, buyers, facilitators -- its human nature. Whatever is imperfect about the current environment can't really be avoided in practical terms because it is a natural byproduct of the market conditions. That said, the report seems to be a disservice to the market. I can't speak for the entire report, but the first and only chart I looked at from the report seems to be mathematically inaccurate regarding its derivation and characterization of the "normal" growth rate. I would love for someone to check the math/logic in my prior post -- I would genuinely like to be corrected if I am wrong or if there is a counter view that can rationalize the chart. If I didn't make a mistake, the report is a disservice to everyone because it will entice uneducated to buyers to lose their shirts through bad investment decisions while driving up the price for serious collectors. This is the type of stuff that creates bubbles even if one doesn't exist currently.
and there were 12 Dinos for auction in Monterey 2014 and 10 in Monterey 2015 auctions http://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/206-246/489872-2015-monterey-auctions.html Yet have prices spiralled downward? Nope
While I have a couple graduate degrees and specialized in math, I'm not a billionaire investor and so any assessment I make is likely not valid in the context of this board. I will defer to those who are much wealthier than I am, to confirm or reject your math.
If you think my posts are emotional, I find that amusing more than anything else, given my posts reflect balanced, calm thought, while you seem to lash out at those who disagree with you. I unfortunately (for your argument) don't fit into the "fresh out of B-school" type since those are the ones that largely cause these sorts of messes, not the ones critiquing the problems around these mindsets. Most of my posts have pointed to the psychology of markets, and your responses reflect my fear (or awareness) of the lack of people being able to step back and detach themselves emotionally. Unless you simply find it easier to bucket me into some category that you have conjured up because I have a markets background? Age doesn't beget wisdom and for someone as successful as you, to be so concerned about discussions around a bubble (note the title of this thread...), seems odd. You realize this thread is for the discussion of issues around the market, do you not? You seem to take great personal offense to it. I have said multiple times, quite clearly, how wonderful your cars are, and how not everyone is necessarily caught up in these markets. Your resort is to attack people posting based on their status (insiders vs. outsiders) rather than drilling down into the merit of the claims made. I've wasted enough time and have nothing to personally gain from contributing so I will take myself out of this thread a second and final time. I wish no ill will towards you but I hope you can self reflect a bit on your attacks because I think they just dampen otherwise useful discourse on a frankly important subject.
Yes.this thread has developed into a completely pointless argument .We don't have crystal balls. We have been through the 'bubbles' of the 80's- 90's . No point in talking about those,different climate/interest rates/other problems. We are where we are..NOW. and next weekend will set the current benchmark,so we may just have to be patient,and wait and see. Some of us,as investors will be more than interested in the outcome.
Please do not take this tone as an attack on you personally. That is not my intent. I think you make some very good points and I will agree that the cars the premium for manual transmissions will be marque specific. It is today, and I don't expect that to change. Also... it is important to remember that the cars when sold new appealed more or less to a specific demographic... and 50 years later they will do the same. It may be a different demographic from before, but regardless there will be a demographic that is attracted to a specific car or brand or genre. The demo may be into manuals... they may not. There are a few things I would like to point out regarding this manual transmission debate. On current classic cars, the cars that are worth the most money of a particular make and model are ALWAYS 1 of 2 things. They are either a homologation special/special edition OR have the highest options of that time period. On current classic cars... cars that are from the 70s and bellow we all seek the cars with the most options. it could be synchro trans, 8 tracks, dual antennas A/C, Power steering/brakes/tops/windows dual ratio rear ends... hell dual side mounts... etc... The more loaded up the better! (again this is on the standard non homologation special. I believe this trend will continue on. The whizz bang of having power windows on a car from the 50s is always impressive. An auto start feature or freewheel on a car from the 30s or even dual sidemounts (what does that add to the driving experience). If you think about it... no one collects or writes about mediocre technology from a by gone era. We only speak of the best of the best. The things that changed the industry or shaped the world. So to have a manual transmission in a supercar where the car actually performs worse...be considered collectible is going to a low probability situation. I think most will want what was hot at the time. Are dual sidemounts popular now? no but they were at the time. Are big fins popular now? no but they were at the time. Are 6mpg muscle cars with radioactive colors with huge stickers and stripes popular on modern cars... not really but they were then. So an manual transmission in an f1 era... may not be a good bet. The other factor is... drivability is always key. In the future if we are all riding around in cars that drive themselves... a 500 horsepower car with a manual transmission will probably be a bit much for many to handle... it might be as cool to own as a gun with a U shaped barrel.
I agree with this 100%. As much as I like manuals, there is a point for supercars where fitting a manual will really limit the ability to get anywhere close to the available performance from the car. This is probably even true on the older 360s and 430s where the automated F1 is faster than a human, but to me the those cars are still close enough in performance that the manual car wins out for the interactive experience. For the very latest supercars, manual might well be a deficit. I neither agree nor disagree (in other words, I don't know ) -- something so different from the norm could either be a deterrent or it could be the attraction. The truth is, it will be the former for some and the latter for others. I guess whichever camp is larger will dictate the affect on future values.
Dave. you may have a degree in 'Mathematics,or Maths,if you prefer,in the plural English,but I fail to see what the **** this has got to do with the Fcars current values. I can not believe that you guys over the pond from us are debating if a manual box is good or bad. What was fitted is what people wanted at the time,and that is the attraction of classic car from the 60,s-70,- 80.s. If you can not handle it,or double de-clutch into first,then don't bother to buy it !
My reason for doing that, as I've stated multiple times throughout this and other similar threads, is to separate fact from fiction. There are too many posts on here about mermaids and dragons when those of us who have experience in these matters know that there are really no such things. If my bringing facts to the argument is an "insiders vs outsiders" things, then I can't argue with that. I'm sorry that the "insiders" have facts whereby the "outsiders" are only armed with conjecture. Again, I have no problem with anyone who disagrees with me. I only ask that they present their argument with facts and not third hand misunderstandings they got from a tv show. At the end of the day, I don't have a horse in this race. I'm just a hobbyist and motoring enthusiast. I have no cars for sale and no cars that I plan on selling. Similarly, I have no cars that I am planning on buying. All of that said, I know some really well informed and intelligent people doing both in this market and calling them "fools" or "flippers" or "scam artists" is the last thing that I would do. There are way too many uninformed people throwing those terms around. I have absolutely nothing against you. I was very much like you 10 years ago. It doesn't matter that you haven't made a jillion dollars (I'm still working on my first jillion, myself). All that matters is that you bring relevant facts to the table in the discussion and 80% of the time, you do. Just don't expect to be let off the hook when you're off base. But I don't want or expect you to stop posting because you do contribute good stuff for thought. But as someone else said, this has become a circular argument. Let people do what they want. Monterey is going to be fun as usual. I'm off in the morning. See everyone there.
HAVING READ THE SEVERAL POSTS OF THIS THREAD It really has a lot of emotion and I certainly do not want to add to that However regarding the discussion of weather there is a bubble or not ...who knows but time will tell. 'Now on the subject of auction houses being deceptive of course they are . Deceptive but not dishonest..... They are basically selling used cars ..you see the ONLY bid that counts is the last bid if the car sells that is ......if it fails to meet reserve then there may not have been any bids... hard to tell and if a car sells for a price that seems insane do not assume there were two bids on the car it may have sold to the only real bidder in the house.... A person really has to pay attention to what they are doing at auctions there may not be a real person offering to buy the car for only a few dollars more then your last bid ... THat being said best of luck to the sellers and the buyers it is a system that works well for all but the uninformed.....
As cowriter of the Red Blossoms report, I would like to give a reaction on this. First I would like to emphasize that Red Blossoms is an independent classic Ferrari market analyst, we share our knowledge and experience for a more transparent market. We believe everyone can benefit from this. We also believe that there can be a healthy mix of pleasure and business: Combining the passion for and driving in classic Ferraris and the benefit of value increase during the ownership. Regarding the comments on the graphic with the 4 scenarios of the 246 GT Dino, this graphic is one of the graphics published in the Classic Ferrari Investment Report. To illustrate what is in the report, some of the graphics were placed on our website. The value development of the Dino has been a-typical. With the 4 scenarios we dont want to predict the future, nor do we want to set high profit expectations. We just wanted to indicate what would happen if certain value increase percentages would continue. We explain in the report why we think it is very unlikely these scenarios will come true. The term normal scenario is explained in the report and should be seen in this context. In the period 2004 until 2008 there was a stable value development of classic Ferraris. Buyers were mainly true Ferrari enthusiasts and collectors. The global economy was relatively normal and stable too, after the dotcom crash in 2000 and the financial crash in 2007-2008. Prices went up due to a natural growth of wealth and a growing number of buyers. Thats why we used the term normal. But I agree, that it would have been better not to have used this word. After 2008 the classic Ferrari market changed. Investment money from stock markets and savings accounts moved to tangible investment options such as classic cars. This resulted in even higher prices and the entrance of speculators, who caused even higher price increases. Personally, as a true Ferrari enthusiast, Im not happy with the speculators in the market. They cause unnatural value fluctuations, but it is a fact they are there. Another fact is that, due to the growing wealth in the world, the demand for classic Ferraris increases and prices will keep on going up. So lets deal with it. With our report, which makes the market more transparent, we made a thorough analysis and we show the value increases of the models. We believe that, with our overviews, findings and conclusions we can help people making better purchase decisions and we can warn for too high expectations.
So you "Share your knowledge and experience" for a fee? Please elaborate on that experience. I see you own a 328. When did you buy it? Have you owned any other Ferraris? I see you joined F-Chat last year and this is your second post. I personally agree with the prior posters thet your RedBlossoms report appears to be beyond ludicrous, you should be ashamed of yourself.
Agree the Red Blossum Report is facile. But I'm surprised this far into the collectibles boom that a more credible analysis hasn't arisen. Which got me thinking: what are the criteria I would approve of in compiling a historic report with predictive value? I'd be interested in hearing what others would include. ie: what are the criteria you'd like to see graphed against collector car values in a way that demonstrated predictive correlations? Thoughts off the top of my head: -MacroEconomic data (plenty of speculation in this thread: interest rates, exchange rates, GDP growth, other securities market performance etc) -TAM (total addressable market) What is the size of the ready/willing/able customer-enthusiast base for a universe of cars; yesterday? today? tomorrow? -Wealth/wealth effect: what is the purchasing power of TAM members? -What are the generational tastes of TAM members? (we all know car categories ebb and swell generationally, otherwise based on trajectories they once enjoyed, all Duesenbergs/Mercers/Bugattis would be $50M cars) -Substitutes: what is performance of comparable collectibles market eg painting/sculpture/furniture -Scarcity: eg, what does the supply side of the equation look like? How many units produced of a make/model, what variations/options that affect desirability. Into this bucket would also go original vs. restored, restoration cost inflation. My sense is that there is actually pretty good data for all this, it would just require someone to do the work. Since no one has, I assume the overall market for the data is just too small to justify the expense?
You guys make some great points. I just think we are seeing a move into hard assets and Ferraris are a blue chip name in vintage (and still modern) cars. I have often pondered that Ferrari is about as hot and successful as anyone can ever be- and has been so for some time. Of course it can continue, but what does the world look like when it stops? I still think the big picture is there are more people who are interested in owning these cars now than before and thats not likely to change in the near term at least. Long term the best advice always applies which is:buy what you love because whether its worth millions or hundreds, you'll still have the car and you'll still enjoy driving it. If you don't enjoy driving it, don't buy it.
One question to ponder, its anywhere from 100-200k or more to properly restore a good bones car. Now we see 308's Trs and the like being touted. A 1984 308 with 50k miles really needs redoing to be considered collectable as opposed to a driver. Yet people seem to want 70+k for them. Yes you can find occasionaly low mileage perfect ones, or low mileage 328's. You can also find low mileage near perfect TRs. But anyone paying serious $$ for some of these higher mileage cars has no idea what i costs to make them "collectable quality" and most people buying low mileage great ones dont seem to understand the expense of keeping a car in great condition. these are not static assets. Yes if you own a restored daytona on up, and even store it unused, the recomissioning and storage costs as a percentage of the total may make sense as values climb. But I think a lot of "collectors" and "speculators" of the more common cars are going to have a wakeup a few years from now when they do the final calculations, even if headline prices dont fall. Its a cycle, we have seen it before. Yes over the long haul thye are nto making anymore hand built anlogue ferraris and the planet is getting wealthier, but there will be dissapointments along the way.
Remember the Arabian Horse investment boom in the late 80s? Similar dynamics (storage, upkeep, "too valuable to be ridden") being played out here. I wonder when that boom is going to come back into play again...
I remember a 275 GTB/4 was roughly equal 1,000 oz Gold for a long time. Not any more, Spot Gold = 1123, so 275 GTB should be $1.1mm... I made a chart of the relationship a few years ago, I'll have to update it.
figure I will just throw some fresh fuel on the fire of this debate ! check this one out... you can't make this stuff up. Ferrari Other | eBay
yep ebay is an advertising portal. Its funny to see the glodman prices followed by a similar car for 1/3 the money. Ebay you can find $130k 20mile 355's next to $55k 20k mile 355's. Lots of chancers out there hoping to cash in.
Kurt, you're a week from turning 32. Please tell us more about this "Arabian horse investment boom of the late 80's." How old exactly were you when you were pitched on this exciting investment strategy? For the record, I have never heard of such a thing as the great Arabian horse boom of the late 80's so I am sure this will be educational for me. By the way, interesting Arabians for sale here in Monterey. Image Unavailable, Please Login
