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  #3061  
Old 04-06-2017, 08:12 AM
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Originally Posted by Ferrarifan2016 View Post
I have a hard time believing that value dropped 30% in one year when stocks went up almost 25% in same time. It makes no sense. I keep reading on here the same thing and seeing cars maybe 30% lower but this is a BUY opportunity when stocks are so high.

How much are 308/328 today compared to a year ago? I think everyone agreed those would keep going up more and now I see them dropping a lot and not even selling.

I think the market is crazy not buying these cars that are maybe half of the prices I saw people talking about a year ago. It is the deal of the century when there are no more manual cars and these are classics now.

Maybe there is opposite bubble now? What is that called?

I see no reason for prices to drop so much when everything else is much higher.
there are many factors that influence the market, for prices to move there has to be an imbalance. you can have an influence that strongly indicates a weakening market and then you can have one for improving market, but if they are equal in force market may just stay flat.

stocks can have a positive or negative impact on certain cars. if everyone wants to be in stock market, then they might pull money from cars. if people have made some nice money in stock market they may spend it on discretionary things like cars.

I personally think major drivers of the bubble right now are Boomers and other havens of money being volatile. When will the Boomers start selling to pay for retirement or start dying off? When will interest rates go up enough there are some attractive debt investments? also remember the more the bubble, the more potential for panic sell off.
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  #3062  
Old 04-06-2017, 08:14 AM
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There really isn't anything to understand here.

I offer car for 1million, client goes to bank and obtains 1million. Bank created the money needed to buy the vehicle.

This is how the monetary system works folks. Higher asset prices means rich people can take on more debt means higher asset prices. The incovenient truth about the economic history of the United states since 1776 is basically fraud fueled booms followed by busts which leads to higher and higher wealth concentration(more bids on old junk ferraris). One merely needs to do a road trip around the US to see this history unfold before ones eyes. Everything from abandoned railroad tracks, to industrial towns, to factories to suburbia. Excess credit growth = money created = economic growth. The 'discipline' of the free market is a complete lie sold to the public at large.

It eventually collapses because of compound interest which is the root cause of the economic malaise plagueing all western economies.

It really is that simple if you understand this then you can understand why rich people things are bid up to such extreme levels and then always end up plunging until the government comes in to save rich asset holders.

When will the bubble burst? Who knows, probably when rich people stuff like realestate and stocks goes down 20% they'll all be rushing in cash in on their rust bucket 'vintage' luxury. The greedy bondholders end up with the windfall.....

Alan Greenspan raised interest rates by 400% from 05-08 which collapsed the economy because the USURERS needed to watch their dollars breed more dollars. So we are starting off with a much higher level of private debt than before and the fed is raising rates. Will that be enough to trigger it? Hard to tell.

Speculating I can see this coming off hard within the next 24months unless Trump admin is able to increase deficit spending substantially so new dollars are available to keep prices propped. It comes down to that, higher deficits = more gdp, lower deficits = risk of debt deflation. Unfortunately the idiotic republicans don't understand this. If Trump can deficit spend 5-10% of GDP than the likely hood is the asset prices will remain high, if he can't(from congressional opposition) than everything will come down and it could be hard.

Last edited by Zaius; 04-06-2017 at 08:24 AM.
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  #3063  
Old 04-06-2017, 08:27 AM
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Originally Posted by Rob Lay View Post
there are many factors that influence the market, for prices to move there has to be an imbalance. you can have an influence that strongly indicates a weakening market and then you can have one for improving market, but if they are equal in force market may just stay flat.

stocks can have a positive or negative impact on certain cars. if everyone wants to be in stock market, then they might pull money from cars. if people have made some nice money in stock market they may spend it on discretionary things like cars.

I personally think major drivers of the bubble right now are Boomers and other havens of money being volatile. When will the Boomers start selling to pay for retirement or start dying off? When will interest rates go up enough there are some attractive debt investments? also remember the more the bubble, the more potential for panic sell off.
Thats not really how that works.

If I have a 250 and sell it for 20 million to put 'money' into stocks the guy who gave me the 20 million now has my 250. All we did was swap assets. The money never went into anything just ownership changed.

If I buy stock then the seller now has my 20 million and I have stock. So what exactly changed? Nothing. It just asset swaps! There is no such thing as 'sideline' money and other nonesense.

In order for high prices to be met, the money has to be created via 2 ways. Either the gov adds it to the economy via deficit spending or private banks create it with loans.

There are no 'market forces' or other occultic explanations. Very simple high deficits = more money in economy = more activity for the top 5% of population because of the wealth concentration. More money in hands of few people = rare stuff being bid up!

High asset prices = more available collateral for new loans = more money to bid with! Has there ever been examples of Ferraris holding their value during a stock market crash? No.

Last edited by Zaius; 04-06-2017 at 08:37 AM.
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  #3064  
Old 04-06-2017, 08:47 AM
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Originally Posted by Zaius View Post
There really isn't anything to understand here.

I offer car for 1million, client goes to bank and obtains 1million. Bank created the money needed to buy the vehicle.

This is how the monetary system works folks. Higher asset prices means rich people can take on more debt means higher asset prices. The incovenient truth about the economic history of the United states since 1776 is basically fraud fueled booms followed by busts which leads to higher and higher wealth concentration(more bids on old junk ferraris). One merely needs to do a road trip around the US to see this history unfold before ones eyes. Everything from abandoned railroad tracks, to industrial towns, to factories to suburbia. Excess credit growth = money created = economic growth. The 'discipline' of the free market is a complete lie sold to the public at large.

It eventually collapses because of compound interest which is the root cause of the economic malaise plagueing all western economies.

It really is that simple if you understand this then you can understand why rich people things are bid up to such extreme levels and then always end up plunging until the government comes in to save rich asset holders.

When will the bubble burst? Who knows, probably when rich people stuff like realestate and stocks goes down 20% they'll all be rushing in cash in on their rust bucket 'vintage' luxury. The greedy bondholders end up with the windfall.....

Alan Greenspan raised interest rates by 400% from 05-08 which collapsed the economy because the USURERS needed to watch their dollars breed more dollars. So we are starting off with a much higher level of private debt than before and the fed is raising rates. Will that be enough to trigger it? Hard to tell.

Speculating I can see this coming off hard within the next 24months unless Trump admin is able to increase deficit spending substantially so new dollars are available to keep prices propped. It comes down to that, higher deficits = more gdp, lower deficits = risk of debt deflation. Unfortunately the idiotic republicans don't understand this. If Trump can deficit spend 5-10% of GDP than the likely hood is the asset prices will remain high, if he can't(from congressional opposition) than everything will come down and it could be hard.
I am even more confused

If govt spends more money then inflation and then interest rates goes up right?

Trump immigration policy means less low cost workers means higher salary means inflation

Trump spending on infrastructure means higher more inflation and also higher interest rates

Trump tax cut means more spending and then higher inflation too

So if we have higher inflation and higher rates what does this mean?
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  #3065  
Old 04-06-2017, 08:48 AM
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Originally Posted by Rob Lay View Post
there are many factors that influence the market, for prices to move there has to be an imbalance. you can have an influence that strongly indicates a weakening market and then you can have one for improving market, but if they are equal in force market may just stay flat.

stocks can have a positive or negative impact on certain cars. if everyone wants to be in stock market, then they might pull money from cars. if people have made some nice money in stock market they may spend it on discretionary things like cars.

I personally think major drivers of the bubble right now are Boomers and other havens of money being volatile. When will the Boomers start selling to pay for retirement or start dying off? When will interest rates go up enough there are some attractive debt investments? also remember the more the bubble, the more potential for panic sell off.
thank you for a very useful overview and helpful way to think about it!
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  #3066  
Old 04-06-2017, 09:02 AM
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Originally Posted by Ferrarifan2016 View Post
I am even more confused

If govt spends more money then inflation and then interest rates goes up right?

Trump immigration policy means less low cost workers means higher salary means inflation

Trump spending on infrastructure means higher more inflation and also higher interest rates

Trump tax cut means more spending and then higher inflation too

So if we have higher inflation and higher rates what does this mean?

The US government has a MONOPOLY on money issuance. Interest rates are set by decree.

The natural rate of interest for government issued fiat money is ZERO. How do I know that? If you take 2 100 dollar bills and put them in drawer will they have children? No.

The federal reserve intervenes into the market to prop interest rates higher than they otherwise would be. This acts as a handout to bondholders who receive free money.

Government spending does not necessarily mean higher inflation because if you have a large % of your economy idling and you put them to work it means more goods/services = more wealth.

The reason the economics profession is obsessed with inflation is because inflation kills the return of BONDHOLDERS. Basically we have an economy run for and by bondholders at the expense of everyone else. You have to understand this dynamic! Price wages or the Sp500 in bonds and you see a massive wealth shift from those who produce to those who idle.

That money shift than leads to rich people going out and buying rare limited stuff, and since their pool of money keeps growing ad infinitum the prices for rich people assets also increases.

So when the SP500 increases by 1000% or a old Ferrari by 5000%, do they call that inflation? No. Everytime rich people stuff goes up its called 'investment returns' or 'capital gains'.

Inflation hysteria occurs when wages go up. So if wages for 95% of the populace increase by 10% suddenly everyone is in a panic yelling inflation inflation! But if rich people stuff does 1000% nobody says anything.

Look, Obama admin came in and ran 8-9% deficits which rebooted the economy but the gains all went to richest % because the distribution of the new money did not occur through the wage channel.

The government has to run a budget deficit because you need new dollars created to pay interest charged on private sector loans. If the government shrinks the deficit or runs a surplus the economy crashes. This is what happened with Bill Clinton he ran a surplus then the economy crashed.

So if you want to know IF ferrari prices will go up or down its very simple. High government budget deficit = high prices for rich people stuff because in the United States monetary transmission all goes to the top of the pyramid.

If Trump will not be able to increase the gov deficit or if he attempts to balance the budget, than DOWN WE GO!

Last edited by Zaius; 04-06-2017 at 09:09 AM.
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  #3067  
Old 04-06-2017, 10:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zaius View Post
If I have a 250 and sell it for 20 million to put 'money' into stocks the guy who gave me the 20 million now has my 250. All we did was swap assets. The money never went into anything just ownership changed.

If I buy stock then the seller now has my 20 million and I have stock. So what exactly changed? Nothing. It just asset swaps! There is no such thing as 'sideline' money and other nonesense.
no, that's not the point. money isn't a 1:1 exchange, the market changes because it isn't a 1:1 exchange.
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  #3068  
Old 04-06-2017, 10:55 AM
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Well, another driver-quality 365GT just sold at Amelia for $192,500, so that seems like the level. Now, a fair question is whether they were really $250k a year or two ago, and I don't know that for sure.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ferrarifan2016 View Post
I have a hard time believing that value dropped 30% in one year when stocks went up almost 25% in same time. It makes no sense. I keep reading on here the same thing and seeing cars maybe 30% lower but this is a BUY opportunity when stocks are so high.

How much are 308/328 today compared to a year ago? I think everyone agreed those would keep going up more and now I see them dropping a lot and not even selling.

I think the market is crazy not buying these cars that are maybe half of the prices I saw people talking about a year ago. It is the deal of the century when there are no more manual cars and these are classics now.

Maybe there is opposite bubble now? What is that called?

I see no reason for prices to drop so much when everything else is much higher.
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  #3069  
Old 04-07-2017, 02:59 AM
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You need something fairly big to happen to trigger a big fall in the markets/cars/whatever.. nothing on the horizon at the moment.

Oh wait ...Trump pulls the trigger and bombs Syrian airbase,Russia not impressed,China not impressed.

What next North Korea?

This could escalate beyond anyone's comprehension.
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  #3070  
Old 04-07-2017, 03:50 AM
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Originally Posted by Ferrari 308 GTB View Post

This could escalate beyond anyone's comprehension.
..and with astonishing speed. But let us hope not.
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  #3071  
Old 04-07-2017, 06:42 AM
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Originally Posted by Ferrari 308 GTB View Post
You need something fairly big to happen to trigger a big fall in the markets/cars/whatever.. nothing on the horizon at the moment.

Oh wait ...Trump pulls the trigger and bombs Syrian airbase,Russia not impressed,China not impressed.

What next North Korea?

This could escalate beyond anyone's comprehension.
Ha, I couldn't believe your post was going that way until I saw you were sarcastic. You get it!
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  #3072  
Old 04-07-2017, 07:39 AM
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Originally Posted by Ferrari 308 GTB View Post
You need something fairly big to happen to trigger a big fall in the markets/cars/whatever.. nothing on the horizon at the moment.

Oh wait ...Trump pulls the trigger and bombs Syrian airbase,Russia not impressed,China not impressed.

What next North Korea?

This could escalate beyond anyone's comprehension.
High US gov deficits = RISING asset prices.

Low gov deficits = opposite.

That all you need to know.

https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/fi...ne1-yellow.png

Look here.

1998 1999 2000 gov deficit is surplus, this means money being removed from economy.

So 1998 1999 2000 you would be selling stocks selling Ferraris.

What happened after? Economy crashed, it has to.

2003 you start BUYING! Because deficit is expanding.

06 07 deficits are shrinking so you are SELL FERRARI sell stocks.

2009 you are BUYING! BUY BUY 9% deficit = GOOD FOR ECONOMY.

Right now if TRUMP cannot increase the deficit because of republican 'hawks' and 'freedom caucus' the economy will go DOWN. You want to be selling assets now!

So as I said what happens to vintage car market? IF GOV is not adding new money odds are they are going down!

People think deficit is bad because they do not understand how a fiat money system works. Its the opposite!

Higher deficits channel more money into the economy which all ends up in the pockets of rich people via various RENTIER schemes like interest payments, dividends, landlord rents. This means rich misers going to the auction houses with their money to BID UP rare things like vintage Ferrari!

Why am i speculating on asset price going down? Simple. Trump couldn't modify OBAMACARE so how he going to get through a massive increase in fed deficits? HE WONT.

Last edited by Zaius; 04-07-2017 at 07:45 AM.
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  #3073  
Old 04-07-2017, 07:55 AM
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I'm with you on that Zaius.
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  #3074  
Old 04-18-2017, 12:24 PM
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Ha. If there is a conflict the USA is involved in, and defense spending is needed, is congress going to deny an expansion of the debt ceiling?
Absolutely not.
That aside, I don't think there is a precedent it has ever NOT been expanded.
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  #3075  
Old 04-21-2017, 06:43 AM
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Originally Posted by Zaius View Post
High US gov deficits = RISING asset prices.



Why am i speculating on asset price going down? Simple. Trump couldn't modify OBAMACARE so how he going to get through a massive increase in fed deficits? HE WONT.
I thought Obamacare was on life support right now ...Trump will flick the switch shortly?
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  #3076  
Old 04-21-2017, 07:29 AM
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sorry, there was never a govt surplus........

maybe if you akin to enron type accounting.

aka "on budget" accounting
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  #3077  
Old 04-21-2017, 12:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zaius View Post
High US gov deficits = RISING asset prices.

Low gov deficits = opposite.

That all you need to know.

https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/fi...ne1-yellow.png

Look here.

1998 1999 2000 gov deficit is surplus, this means money being removed from economy.

So 1998 1999 2000 you would be selling stocks selling Ferraris.

What happened after? Economy crashed, it has to.

2003 you start BUYING! Because deficit is expanding.

06 07 deficits are shrinking so you are SELL FERRARI sell stocks.

2009 you are BUYING! BUY BUY 9% deficit = GOOD FOR ECONOMY.

Right now if TRUMP cannot increase the deficit because of republican 'hawks' and 'freedom caucus' the economy will go DOWN. You want to be selling assets now!

So as I said what happens to vintage car market? IF GOV is not adding new money odds are they are going down!

People think deficit is bad because they do not understand how a fiat money system works. Its the opposite!

Higher deficits channel more money into the economy which all ends up in the pockets of rich people via various RENTIER schemes like interest payments, dividends, landlord rents. This means rich misers going to the auction houses with their money to BID UP rare things like vintage Ferrari!

Why am i speculating on asset price going down? Simple. Trump couldn't modify OBAMACARE so how he going to get through a massive increase in fed deficits? HE WONT.
who cares about how monetary policy affects pricing, not everyone is a speculator ready to flip cars every time the economic wind changes direction... appreciation of the F car brand transcends economic up and downs... the values of the brand have been up and down since day one, yet everyone that appreciates the brand and held on to their cars has been rewarded generously, while the markets have changed around them... "the sky has not fallen" instead to their surprise have found gold at the end of their rainbow... there are much better vehicles for speculation
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  #3078  
Old 04-25-2017, 08:26 PM
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Originally Posted by henryr View Post
sorry, there was never a govt surplus........

maybe if you akin to enron type accounting.

aka "on budget" accounting
Yep. Especially the Clinton administration "surplus"

Can you say dot com bubble? That thing vanished the second he stepped out of office. That was all phony paper wealth with nothing behind it but hype and greed. A bunch of twenty somethings sitting in 500 squarefoot office spaces playing solitaire on their computers. Thanks for the Capital investment! We're outta here! LOL

This one was my personal favorite

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TheGlobe.com
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  #3079  
Old 04-27-2017, 04:43 AM
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The only way that Trump will even near in attempting reach his targts is through deficit spending - this is also in line with what the world needs, higher commodity prices.

The dollar is far too expensive, deficit spending will help counter this. I foresee the USD losing against all majors (Euro, Yen) - we are already seeing a run up on the Euro (from 1.05 to 1.09).

The Fed's tightening policy will also have to be revised and perhaps reversed.
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  #3080  
Old 04-27-2017, 07:08 AM
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Originally Posted by 360modena2003 View Post
The only way that Trump will even near in attempting reach his targts is through deficit spending - this is also in line with what the world needs, higher commodity prices.

The dollar is far too expensive, deficit spending will help counter this. I foresee the USD losing against all majors (Euro, Yen) - we are already seeing a run up on the Euro (from 1.05 to 1.09).

The Fed's tightening policy will also have to be revised and perhaps reversed.
Fallacy. No economy "needs" deficit spending or "higher commodity prices." That's just an argument to continue money printing and propping up over leverage. No one can centrally manage an economy. Govt spending is just an inefficient redistribution (through tax or debt [future tax]). And some of that debt is monetized with electronic money printing by the central bank created by the Federal Reserve Act (state sponsored monopoly). The money printing is also just a tax (inflation tax - defined by increase in the money supply - we get diluted and $ buys less). The dollar has been devalued since the creating of the Fed. What we need is to let the markets price themselves. The massive debt needs to be restructured or repriced. Massive deflation is a good thing as prices are lower and makes us all wealthier. It's absurd to argue for higher prices. Wouldn't we love to buy cars, food, housing at lower prices? Of course. But the public buys the propaganda from govt and Fed. 2% inflation target? Seriously? Why? It's a sham to prop up the banks who don't want to take any write offs. The centrally managed banking system has created a bubble. More bubble is just deferring the problem. We swept it all under the rug in 2008 and nothing has changed - derivatives are higher, total Fed debt is higher, total worldwide debt is higher. World wide banks are printing $200B per month. They won't let the free markets do what they are supposed to do - let the over leverage issue correct itself. At some point the people who bought the overvalued paper have to take responsibility for their own actions and take the loss. Govt can't keep bailing everyone one through money printing. As for govt spending, I highly recommend this book (goes through the broken window fallacy and others). It's logical and an easy read: https://www.amazon.com/Economics-One.../dp/0517548232
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