Future of classic/vintage car values....

when you get older, you'll understand. I wasn't into ferrari gto's when i was 22 either.

 

This is a valid question. The people who are now collecting are collecting those cars that they grew up with but could not afford. Now they can afford them, so the market is hot for the boomer generation with muscle cars and street rods and 1960's era Ferraris. When they (we, my generation) pass on, I wonder if the next few generations will be as interested in these old cars as we are? I have little interest in the earliest cars of the 1900s, because I did not grow up with them and yearn to own one. My guess is that the value of the early vintage Ferraris will reach a plateau in 5-10 years and will remain stable for some time after that.
Ed

 

Chase, by the time our generation can afford to collect cars like the 250GTO, 275gtb4, 288GTO, F40, and the like...oil reserves will be dried up and modern fuel systems won't allow for gasoline. My theory is that these will become a giant dust collector like steam engines have become. Great museum pieces to reminisce on our younger days.

Unfortunately, these pieces will never be like Dad's cool Chevelle or Hemi 'Cuda where the prices were affordable in the beginning. We won't be able to remember the times of "I remember owning one of those, some of the best times of my life was with that car..."

 

May be true, but you will always be able to keep them running as they are almost all mechanical.

Today's cars contain multiple microprocessors and specialized semiconductor control chips which will fail in 20 years and then what. You can't exactly take an ECU to a shop to be rebuilt like you can an alternator or a starter. There are so many different specialized semiconductor chips running proprietary algorithms in these cars that I wonder if it will be possible for an underground open source ecosystem to evolve to fulfill the need for replacement parts once the current inventory is depleted. If not, the cars will no longer run...

 

People are already putting out custom ECUs for various modern cars. Haven't really seen anything opensource, but third parties are definitely able to figure out the proprietary systems. If people really want to keep these cars running, working with the digital electronics won't stop them.

 

Back to the values of calssic cars, take a look at values of pre-war cars both American like Dusenberg and Packard as well as Alfa Romeo 6C's like the REPLICA that sold at the Ponder collection for near 1million.
I am surprised how many ex-Ferrari collectors have switced over to collecting 1930's cars and these are not guys who grew up with these cars!
Look at patterns of other collectible items, is there any difference of classic cars versus antique furniture (except you can actually drive the cars)?

 

Perhaps there's another dynamic that may influence future value, as well. If postings on this board are representative of Ferrari owners in general (and that's a big "if"), the Ferrari "family" of owners is a somewhat closed family.

For example, I read on this board that admission to the upcoming Reading event requires you to be a Ferrari owner, pay an admission fee, and requires the owner to display his car. These policies have the effect of keeping out non-Ferrari owners who may be interested in the cars, and who could be potential future owners.

If non-Ferrari owners cannot attend these events, how can interest for the marque build? Wouldn't a broader interest in Ferraris turn into demand for the cars, and then into an upward movement of market value? How can current owners be replaced when they leave the ownership ranks either by selling their car or dying? How can current Ferrari owners pass along their passion, their love, and their enthusiasm for these cars to others if the fraternity of owners is more "closed" than "open"?

I'm admittedly operating from a disadvantage in making these observations since I get most of my information from FerreriChat. If I'm off base, I certainly apologize...no offense has been intended in writing about this issue. I love Ferraris, too, and I'm a non-owner.

 

we are at a turning point in our ghobby

Now there are hybrids, biodiesel, & hydrogen & oter fuels on the horizon, so I think the problem we face will be if gasoline is still sold & doubtless tghe crazies in te US will want to stop sellin it ASAP so we may need to find another country to buy it in

So the question really is : how collectible will a 2006 Prius be ?

 

100 years from now? Who knows. As someone else said, horse drawn conveyances were built for centuries, some with exquisite coachwork - how many builders can you name? How many collections would you go out of your way to see?

 

I suspect you'll see a huge run-up in prices before the eventual fade over the next 25 years. There was a drop in supply of new "collectible" cars from 1972 until 1999 (with the exception of the few Italian exotics made during those years). As the next generation reaches the age of discretionary income to buy toys, there will be many more buyers chasing the limited supply of collectible 1955 - 1972 cars.

I would expect the Ferrari 355 and older Ferrari cars to get caught up in this upswing in prices. It is possible for prices to double and then double a second time before the drop. So, if this is over the next 25 years, let's say prices double by 2017 and double again by 2027. If this prediction holds true, that would mean nice 328 GTS cars would go from $50k to $100k (by 2017) to $200k (by 2027) before dropping again. And does that mean nice 365 Daytonas could go from $225k to $450k (by 2017) to $900k (by 2027)? Yes, I think so, for two reasons, supply/demand and some inflation along the way.

I think this run-up in pricing applies more to the typical American car of interest, such as the Camaros, Firebirds, Mustangs, and Corvettes. These cars are in the $25k - $50k price range these days. Note that some of the very specialized muscle cars of that era may already be overpriced, e.g. the 1970-71 Cuda convertibles, 65-67 Shelby Mustangs, LS6 Chevelles, etc., so the prediction of 4x price growth probably does not apply to them.

Ferraris will always be collectible. Even the least coveted models slowly rise in value after they are 25 years old. And if you happen to own one of the most coveted models, it can rise very quickly in value (e.g. the 246 GTS, the 275 GTB, the 250 SWB and 250 TDF). So, which of the modern models will be one of the most colelctible in the future? That is a tough question, but my hunch is the 550. Front-engine 12 cylinder, timeless styling, and built prior to the F1 transmission as an option.

Thoughts?

 

Great cars will always be worth a lot of money. Look at Duesenbergs.

And to the point about steam engines, there are several operating steam engines in my area, including some of the largest steam engines ever built. So they're not all dust collectors!

 

The Roman Chariot in the Met. Probably worth a bit more than any car.

 

Princess Diana's wedding carriage might be collectable, too...
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The peak cars of each variant/class are going to have value in the future, regardless.

Duesenberg. Ferrari 250 GTO. P4/5. Et al.

However, 250 years from now guys aren't going to be bidding up one Hemi Cuda over another just because it has an A/C delete option while the other doesn't, though.

 

Looks like a bit of a garage queen:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/29/arts/design/29char.html?ex=1333512000&en=17202c28a368c474&ei=5124&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink

Wonderful quote from the article:

“Fancy cars always capture the imagination”

 

Sweet. Von Dutch would've dug those ivories. Drop a Hemi in that mofo and show your neighbor's Segway who's boss.

 

Well bottom line, I bought my Ferrari to enjoy TODAY and for the next few years. If I break even in car value in 5 yrs I'm ecstatic AND in less trouble with the wife!

 

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Pretty s***ty actually!