What would 2007 have been like without Stepneygate?

If you don't like speculation, read no further.

I was trying to imagine how the season would have been if Stepney had never passed on information to McLaren. Obviously a gazillion different things could have happened, but I tried to base it on what actually happened in 07 unrelated to Stepneygate (although one can successfully argue you can never unlink such events).

We know that the brake system was the part McLaren copied. So without that, the McLaren would have not been as fast as the Ferrari. However it did show very competitive pace in March and April. The knowledge transfer happened in April and I would think it took McLaren engineers at least a couple of weeks to build the system. So I didn't change any of the results before May. I also assume that McLaren would have come in 2nd to Ferrari and still beat BMW and the rest with their own brake system (as they did in the early races of the season).

So I changed only the results of races where McLaren drivers ended up right in front of Ferrari drivers. If the Ferrari drivers were hopeless (e.g. in the rain of Fuji or Massa at Hungaroring), I didn't change the result. Here are the standings, a * marks an altered result:

Race Date Kimi Total Massa Total Hami Total Alonso Total
Australian 18/03/2007 10 10 3 3 6 6 8 8
Malaysian 8/4/07 6 16 4 7 8 14 10 18
Bahrain 15/04/2007 6 22 10 17 8 22 4 22
Spanish 13/05/2007 0 22 10 27 8 30 6 28
Monaco* 27/05/2007 1 23 10* 37 6* 36 8* 36
Canadian 10/6/07 4 27 0 37 10 46 3 39
United States* 17/06/2007 8* 35 10* 47 6* 52 5* 44
French 1/7/07 10 45 8 55 6 58 2 46
British 8/7/07 10 55 4 59 6 64 8 54
European* 22/07/2007 0 55 10* 69 0 64 8* 62
Hungarian* 5/8/07 10* 65 0 69 8* 72 5 67
Turkish 26/08/2007 8 73 10 79 4 76 6 73
Italian* 9/9/07 10* 83 0 79 6* 82 8* 81
Belgian 16/09/2007 10 93 8 87 5 87 6 87
Japanese 30/09/2007 6 99 3 90 10 97 0 87
Chinese* 7/10/07 10 109 8* 98 0 97 6* 93
Brazilian* 21/10/2007 8* 117 10* 108 2 99 6 99

(Sorry for the jumbled mess, if you quote this post, you can copy the properly aligned table into another doc)

A few interesting observations:
- Kimi would still have won the WDC and Massa come in 2nd.
- Kimi would have won the WDC in China already, hence Massa wouldn't have to gift the Brazilian GP to him.
- Team orders still in place after Italy.

Bottom line is, that the Ferraris would have been more dominating all season long, but the fight would have been still on to almost the end.

 

...agreed, but Hamiltons Stakes wouldnt be sky high...and maybe Alonso would have stayed at McLaren...

...maybe BMW would have passed McLaren IMO, they are so close, any of both front runner makes a mistake and ends up being bitten by at least one bimmer to the checkered...breaking later gave McLaren all the alleged tenths Alonso claims are His masterpiece...

 

KATCHING! Now I get it: The 6/10 Alonso improved the car by were down to the braking system. After all it was him (and de la Pink) who got that info from Ferrari. He wasn't kidding.

 

simple....it would have been boring!!.....all the drama made it a memorable season!

 

I would have had more time to drive my Fcar.

The hours I spent reading transcripts from the hearings and the comments on Fchat number at least a work week (40 hrs). Not that it wasn't entertaining...and cheaper.

Hope we have a "boring" (aka no cheating) season in 2008.

 

...HEHEHehheeeeeee, lets see what the rest of the teams were he could land think NOW that they know he means bussines...

after What I know of Alonso, I´ll have him isolated from certain developments and general design philosophies...I´ll pay him a lot so he starts talking like a parrot BUT just listen what he has to say...after all, he even seeks a 1 year deal to move into another BIG team...I wonder if TOYOTA will be just doing the bold...make it or brake it with Alonso on board...

if Alonso finds a way of building teams instead ripping them appart, he might be champion again...otherwise, I think he just burned like a christmas bulb...the worst part is that all other teams know it.And BMW will have a hard time bringing him over to rattle all they have achieved so far...that´s why I say TOYOTA...they think is lack of drivers speed...they´ll find out once and for all...even more costly than their stupid and expensive approach...

...Flavio is struggling but he´s making some progress...even if his own pockets are getting lighter...
RBR couldnt care less of being ahead if they hire Alonso...they´ll have all the tv exposure they dream of without being a top dog...intersting trade...

...TOYOTA might (I think they are desperate) want to find out once and for all if they have what it takes...bringing Alonso over and pretending they are Ferrari...

 

No we don't. Where have you gotten that? Latest reports put McLarens brake system as a continuation of a system they'd had from around 2002. Ferrari have the same type system with a spring rather than a valve right? So, if you're pointing fingers, where did Ferrari get the idea for their brake system? The 2002 McLaren maybe?

Both arguments are nothing more than that. I'd like to see definitive proof that McLarens brakes were directly copied from Ferrari. I’m not talking about some article in Bild that’s based on hearsay either. When you get done with that I'd like you to prove that Ferrari didn't get their idea for their system from the earlier McLaren.

At worst Ferrari stole the idea from McLaren, modified it and McLaren stole it back. More than likely Ferrari got wind of the McLaren system developed their own in parallel and McLaren continued to develop theirs. Both achieved the same result but with slightly different approaches.

 

As long as we're speculating...

Let's say Stepneygate did happen (as it did), and McLaren lost all of their C points (as they did)... but what if Hamilton beat Kimi by 1 point in the end?

McLaren would have had the WDC, while Ferrari would have had the WCC by default. Lots of Ferrari fans would have been disappointed, and McLaren fans would have a bittersweet moment (a WCC win by a rookie, but a WDC loss because of the shameful cheating)

~shahedc
.

 

Lead article in the October issue of BusinessF1. It was based on the 2nd FIA hearing. This was discussed ad nauseam in a separate thread here on FChat.

 

...I think Jean Todt would have step down from Gestione Sportiva and Brawn will already be in place...AND THAT is something I dont like...Jean Todt staying further that is...

I dont want to loose Brawn, if there is something that was missing in the team this year was the "all out" attitude of this guy...he can have a great plan, and change it along the way and make it even better...that is precious when the differences are SO SO TIGHT.

...and I dont think next year will be very different...apart from more Driver mistakes, especially from the pole contenders due to the lack of TC...

 

LH stakes would be as high no question. And since FA had told friends RD was not the person he thought he was at the AUSSIE GP in other words he had a dislike from the onset, it renders maybe he would have stayed as no chance. more chance of him staying as it actually was.
.

Andreas

IMO there are toooo many factor's to come to this conclusion although I see where your coming from and respect for taking the time to work it out.

Some that spring to mind are: The tyre choice didn't favour Ferrari, it just happens that wear rates are lower at smoother tracks so supersofts were appropriate for the kind of tracks where the Ferrari was always expected to be strong because all season they had been quicker on smoother tracks.

McLaren were always quicker on tracks which were rough or had high kerbs.

 

Thanks. I like thinking in alternate scenarios. Questions like "what if D-Day had not been a success" fascinate me to no end. Of course the possibilities are endless, that's why I like to stick to a ceteris paribus approach (as does any good economist ).

 

I would hate to think it was a baised approach

 

Why are kerbs not standard height at all F1 tracks?

 

Honestly it wasn't. At least not conciously biased. I really tried to look at each race individually, which is why I left some unchanged (e.g. Fuji). The underlying assumption was that the Ferrari and the McLaren were almost identical in performance with the difference that the McLaren had a lesser brake system. You take that away and close calls get reversed.

 

Not sure all I do know is the Mclaren car was good at getting over them without upsetting or damaging the car maybe good suspension OH NO! did they nick that idea of Ferrari as well ..

 

Yes I'am sure your right I was only messing I have never read any of your post's that I thought were baised.

 

Uh, oh. There are quite a few folks who think my posts are very biased. Against Ferrari. I guess it all depends on one's perspective.

 

As a mod I'am sure you have to appear down the line and I think you do. For me people who seem totally blind that there hero/team can do no wrong is where the problems begin..Support for a brit in a brit car if your a brit and support Ferrari or not No problem. But to say LH/Mclaren did nothing wrong as a brit I would say there talking bollox..

 

Probably, but that's not really my motivation. I love the sport more than liaisons with drivers, teams or countries and I want to know the truth and see fairness in the competition. I have been on Ferrari's side (as in Stepneygate) and against them (eg. mass damper ruling in 06). That doesn't mean I can't pick sides for drivers etc.

 

de la boring


>who got that info from Ferrari. He wasn't kidding

maybe.

Even without the fia punishment
I think the espionage fiasco helped F more than McL

 

+1

Well said