Florida Housing Prices

Any guesstimates from the braintrust about when the bottom should be here, and how many more precentage points depreciation to expect? I am in Sarasota area and nothing is moving, waiting on the fence to buy....I was thinking this summer would be ripe for the picking, but then some national forecaster said the market will continue to slump into 2010.

 

Depends which region you are located and if we actually admit we are having a recession. Miami will be bad for another three years. I have been looking for a rental on Brickell, its already a bloodbath. New 1000 unit building, only 75 units actually closed.

Ouch.

 

... and the mega towers keep rising along Brickell area.

 

huge discussion on the very same topic before. I suggest you do a search and read that multi page discussion. All your answers are right there.

 

bottom line is, no one has the answers. however, the forecasters that we depend on in the industry (mc cabe and metrostudies) show evidence that Palm Beach County is the first to start the upswing. Approximate, beginning of 2009. Alot of great deals up our way...

 

I am a certified braintrust:

Recession (we are in one) will last 3 years, home prices will drop another 12 to 20 percent, fed will continue to bail out banks by continuing to cut rates which will cause severe inflation. Invest in short term CD's so that when interest rates start to rise you can reinvest at higher rates. It is a presidential election year and no one is telling the truth...except me!

You don't have a bust without a boom and guess what we had a record boom and now comes the record bust!
Buckle your seatbelts

Dr. Paul (*Phd.)
Certified Brain Trust
Diplomate and Founder / American Brain Trust Academy
*Honorary

PS. And no matter where you go everyone says their area is at bottom and upswing is coming.......what BS
The everyones are Real Estate and developer people and listening to them is like listening to the fox guarding the hen house and stating that the chickens are safe........

 

Who needs to do a search when Paul comes to the rescue!

I'm waiting to see if new homes in Lakewood Ranch Country Club come down to $200-250/sq foot.

 

short term cd's? you're serious? lock up money so you can grow it 3%...maybe 4% if you're lucky? you can get 4% in a MMA that you can access all day, any day.

also, speaking to "developer" types saying their area has hit bottom...no one knows when the bottom will come. in fact, the bottom is the minute the news media starts saying so!

urgency, supply, and lastly...demand! those are the three words you should teach your brain trust.

being in the business, i see people all day who WANT to buy, but are swayed not to. Again, not because they don't want to, they just are unsure of the timing. eventually the pent up demand will create an upswing. after the upswing, normalcy again in real estate.

 

"eventually" is in three years.....Until then the chickens are Not safe.

The $600 Goverment checks will solve the problem....God Save the Goverment!

 

If you have chicken to guard you are a Cuban and in that case you are not safe anyhow.

 

Well you could invest it into a new home for $500,000 that will be worth $400,000 by the end of the year and $300,000 by the end of 2009. That is a much better return.

 

being in the business as well, you are not learning your history lessons at all.
There will be no upswing. Never has.
There will be a tapering off from the downswing and slowly people will start buying in similar numbers as people selling and the foreclusure rate will come back to normal levels of the very early 2000s.
This takes years not weeks or months. Again, history will teach you. The present situation is nothing new. It has been going on since the 50s and will probably go on in the future. It is important that people realize what the true value of real estate is. We have forgotten that in 2002 and started down the road we are on right now.

 

I concur

I firmly believe that the $600 goverment checks will save us and my house will again be worth $7 million.
Have you see my chickens? I think a real estate agent stole them!

 

all of which begs the question:

is a Ferrari F40 a better hedge than a Money Market or CD?

 

Don't count your chickens until they hatch................. <peep>

 

Except for the really prime stuff which may hold flat I agree. I've been in South Florida 4 times in the past 6 weeks looking at real estate and there is so much supply with more on the way. Many real estate agents say the Europeans will rapidly consume the supply. I don't think so.

I've seen this movie before in Orange County and Dallas before that. It always takes longer to bottom and much longer to show gains than is estimated in the early stages. I'm not going to buy right now as much as I'd like to. Instead, I'm going to do something really stupid and buy a boat to leave in the Ft. Lauderdale area.

 

I just posted a link to an article on Bank United blacklisting 191 S Florida condo buildings in the Business & Investment Forum:

http://ferrarichat.com/forum/showthread.php?p=137478903#post137478903

 

Is there a reliable indicator then that the bottom is nigh....such as weeks of inventory of some other surrogate? Realtors are always saying that "now is the time" which of course is BS, until that unknown time when it "is time."
I'm sitting on cash and waiting, and waiting.

 

you will have to add a bunch more "and waiting"'s to the above statement otherwise you will take a bath.

and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting
and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting
and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting
and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting
and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting
and waiting, and waiting, andand waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting
and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting
and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting
and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting

 

I am a Real Estate appraiser and we have been warning about the up comming recession for the last two years. Talking with fellow appraisers in FL you have not seen anything yet the worst is comming this year with more ARM's resetting. Jan/Feb a hung increase in pre forlcosure appraisals. That is all I have been doing here in GA for the last 6 weeks. No sales no Refis. It will then take 3 to 5 years for things to really improve.

 

Scary stuff. In the context of this going on and lenders black listing developments I stood with my mouth hanging open at Sunny Isles. As mentioned above, the ongoing construction would seem hard pressed to be supported in a good market.

This scenario seems much worse than Dallas in the 80's and it took me about 8 years to get back to even on a house that I thought I bought at a great price near the bottom.

Does anybody have a good link for a data base that shows rental properties? I may be interested in a leasing for a while.

 

I don't think it is scary. I think it has great opportunity. It will relieve us of all the dumb arses that should not have been investing in the first place. They will all go back to stocks and lose their shirts on companies that promis possible returns in 10+ years. "Its the newest technology...we can all make money" and there we go again...LOL.

 

Leasing is the way to go you can get some great deals with folks desperate for cash flow .Try Craigs List for rentals.

Situation will be about the same as the Dallas situation. Over built makret wrong kind of housing for what the market is. Most developers miss the demographic fact that there is a huge market for small afforadable homes for single moms 1100 sqft 2 bedroom $90,000-$120,000. Every one wants to build 1800 sqft 4 bedroom three bathroom homes for $375,000. Market can't support it when average wage is $11/hr. and your are building for peole that make 425.00/ hr and up. Just basic supply and demand, not every one is a millonaire.

 

Interesting...
What do you make of the approx $1.5M market in southwest Florida?
Thanks.

 

Bill, since the B&I is private, could you please post the link in here as well? Thanks.