New Car Pricing/Impact of Rough US Economic Market

Based on the US economy sucking wind i've seen a few guys write posts expecting new/used pricing to ease up. Yet, Ferrari's most recent financial results (see F website) seem to suggest that even with 30% of sales being made in US currency they continue to knock the cover off the ball. Non-US markets made the biggest impact (expected I guess) with sales in Asia Pacific up over 45% year over year and the Middle East up over 30% and North America was still up almost 8% (I would guess that will trail off this year though). Seems like there is no better indicator of how a company views future prospects than how much they allocate to R&D and Ferrari increased Investment and R&D by 29% which equates to 18% of total revenue. It would seem to me that with these kinds of results Ferrari has global pricing power and will most likely raise prices which should add significant support to the used market . Thoughts?

 

In 1993 bought a new Chevy Z-71,,, $ 22,500
List 28,000

last week,
in 2008
Bought a New GMC 4X4, 4 door 3/4 ton, $ 22,500

MMMMmmmmmm

 

I think it depends what you call the "used market". If you mean the 1st resale after buying new at MSRP, I'd say that there are enough people doing (too ) well $-wise (even in a US Recession) to keep that small market saturated for a desirable F model. If you mean the 10+ year old market (where the passage of time requires some restoration/care regardless of how little use) might be softer in a slow US economy -- i.e., an early 360 sitting unused in the garage for another year won't be a screaming investment. JMOs.

 

autoblog just posted this quarter's sales looks like everyone is doing poorly.
http://www.autoblog.com/2008/03/04/by-the-numbers-february-2008

 

For new cars, Ferrari doesn't need that large a population of super-rich to consume its entire order book. It's hard to compare them to any other auto maker, because the supply is still relatively small (output is tiny compared even to Porsche, for example). Unless Ferrari stumbles badly and doubles production, I wouldn't worry about their new car sales.

For used cars, I agree with Steve's comments: older modern production cars like early 360s/550s, which have trickled down into the less affluent secondary market, could get battered.

For vintage/classic (Ferraris introduced pre-1990), I think it's a different market entirely -- collectors and enthusiasts tend to keep these cars for a long time because they want a specific model (e.g., Daytona, F40, etc.)

 

True, but no mention of Ferrari.

Look at MINI, up 38%. Could bode well for the revival of the small car.

 

Yeah Im noticed that as well. You know as a was monitoring the sales each quarter i never have seen ferrari's sales. Perhaps its because FIAT is not in the states Ferrari is excluded

 

Yes, and GM, Chrysler, and Ford posting the biggest corporate losses. Could bode well for the revival of the smaller car company, instead of these huge corporate conglomerates with massive overhead.

 

That could be. Personally I thought GM was doing better by bringing cars from Opel and Holden I gues not. There seemed to be alot of hype over that on the magazines.

 

I agree completely with the need to frame the actual cars that still hinge on new car pricing. I would say used 360's and 430's (599's to a lesser degree as they seem to be in a land of their own) are most relevant.

I would guess the real value killer of the 355's, 360's, and 430's could be the new entry level F car......

 

To add to the discussion is the CAFE 35mpg by 2012 factor. Basically the cost by substantially jump. Dont know the time frame or what the market will be like in the next several years but that will be a rippling affect on the used ferrari segment.

Here is that long threat discussing the law

http://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/showthread.php?t=179176&highlight=35+MPG

 

...general market is fairly ugly though.

 

Looks like sales were down 22% in the most recent release....

 

Most of those that can afford and WANT a Ferrari are generally not affected by the market.

 

My thoughts on the new car market are like this: companies such as Ferrari and Lambo I dont see a negative impact happening on thier new car markets because of the amount of cars that are available, used is a different story. However companies such as GM and Chrysler I think will eventually have to close certain divisions and group them as one. For example with GM having both Chevrolet and Pontiac they are practically competing internally when cars such as the Colbalt and Sunfire are the same type of buyer and the same car all together. Same goes with Chrysler and Dodge. I think you will eventually see these companies going to one sole francise to cut down on production costs of factories and workers. It just doesnt make sense that they would keep it going like they have and be profitable.

 

I am in the minority on this issue. I do think that the current market and increase of production along with the new model with dilute the market. That coupled with required 1 yr. agreements with the dealer, required options, and required financing so they can hold the title. Not to mention the 430 spyder has increased in price nearly 50k between '06 and '08. All of these things will test the depth of the Ferrari market here. I think a lot of rich guys are offended by these tactics. They are in the drivers seat now but maybe it will change.

 

As a former employee of BMW/MINIUSA,

MINIs sales numbers are often thrown off by factory production. When MINI has a successful month it is because the factory pumped out alot of cars about 2 months earlier than month of sale. Many MINIs are pre-sold in many portions of the US... so to compare MINI with the rest of the automotive community is a little unfair. Most dealerships sell 90-100% of there stock everymonth. MINI has an outstanding inventory turn ration. Also, a 3rd model was added to the MINI line up. The Clubmann/Traveler... being a new piece of inventory they will sell quickly and ordered units leave the dealer lots as fast as they came in.