Sheehan Sports Car Mag Article

Now, I am hardly one to jump on the experts, although Mike Sheehan has put his foot in it with some of our bretheren from time to time. He does know his cars, esp the vintage collectibles and is controversal with his opinions on what he feels are non-collectibles. Whatever, it's his role as a journalist to make us think and discuss. Yes, it's also somewhat self-serving since he is also a high-line dealer. Personally I never liked his comments (or those of Clarkson) when it comes to "dissing" my beloved 348, but everyone is entitled to their (incorrrect) opinion.

My comment is about his latest article in SCM which is a back of the napkin stab at estimating the national and worldwide Ferrari market in terms of total dollars generated for factory and used transactions. Has anyone read this and does anyone else have an opinion? I am trained as a statistician and analyst and I have grave concerns about the content of this article. It is worthy of a casual conversation between friends over a beer in a hotel bar. It is not appropriate, IMO, as an article in SCM, where it might be sourced and presumed accurate. I can just see it now - "Sheehan said it's a $6 billion a year Ferrari market out there".

The entire estimate is nothing more than a hipshot, one guy's opinion (granted somewhat more informed than mine currently) and a series of assumptions. Where I come from this is called SWAG. It does not belong in a collector car magazine. Sorry guys (Wilson and Sheehan), but you blew it with this one. The real issue is one of credibility. Tossing numbers around like this reflects on your comments and opinions from here on out. There are probably enough data out there to come up with a more accurate and credible estimate that wouldn't look like a haphazard guess. You should have dug into it a bit deeper.

Anyone else have an opinion?

 

Is the article available on line?

 

I think it is an opinion piece, and not a news article, thus providing him with ample room to exagerate to fit his opinion. Nothing to get upset about. Now if it was him reporting findings and not thoughts on the subject, than send those spitballs flying his way.

I did not think that his numbers seemed that far off, but i will have to re-read the article tonight.

 

You know, I am not really upset about it, but I still believe it is inappropriate and, heck, sloppy. I mean, if you're gonna take a stab at it, do a more credible estimate based on some data you got from somewhere.

As for an opinion piece, you know, I never really know how to categorize his column in SCM. Sometimes, he comes off as an authority expressing a valuable observation, opinion or forecast. As a result, I take his word at bit more than just a shot in the dark, off the cuff, from the hip statement. I think his readers have the same take. So when someone who has a certain level of respect, or following, and makes a sloppy assessment like this, it bugs me - not to the point of homicide, but maybe to the point of smart-azzed graffiti. What is irritating is that he is in a much better position (not to mention there is the SCM worldwide database) to actually have done a much more accurate (or credible) estimate. I guess I was particularly disappointed by this column when I look forward to the whole mag, and Sheehan's articles, every month.

 

Actually, I think that Sheehan's guesses are probably as close as anyone can get. Trust me, I have tried to do the same thing just with Maranellos, and it is just about impossible for someone who is not a car slut to get any data, much less reliable data.

Here's the problem, Ferrari SpA is very paranoid (Cue up Black Sabbatic. On the other hand, don't.) about giving out information. Hell, you can't even get them to say how many cars they make of each model. And when they do issue a press release, do you really believe their numbers? Who knows why Ferrari is so weird. Maybe it is an Italian insecurity thing.

But looking over his numbers, I'd take his guesses over anybody else. Oh, that's right. No one else has tried to do this.

Dale

PS To show how difficult this can be to do, go ahead and guess how many Ferraris there are in the US. Go ahead. I dare ya.

 

I think his point is to demonstrate that new cars is but a small part of the overally yearly ferrari business. Whether his number is exagerated or conservative his point still stands that the ferrari business, and the one the factory would like to controll is significatly larger than new car sales. This makes the overall ferrari business far more complex and profitable than new car sales numbers would indicate.

 

I believe Ferrari has been fudging production numbers since day one. This practice should be illegal.

 

He might not be too far off. Ferrari sold 6700 cars last year. At 250K per (conservative retail) that would be 1,675,000,000. Add in parts, clothing and everything else and they might be at 2B. I would think the used market is significantly larger, especially in vehicle numbers, but also dollar amount. Still, it would be nice to see how he arrived at the number. If comeone gave me 5B as an over/under, I'd take the over but it would be impossible to come up with accurate accounting anyway.

Dave

 

I read the article, and thought so what? I'd guess that it is difficult to come up with an interesting topic every month, even when you're writing about Ferrari.

 

Licencing is worth far more than you imagine.

 

As long as they are not a stand alone public company, and remain a pseudo-private company under the FIAT group, I think that they are well within their rights to keep the mystery and thus mystique alive. Enough info is out there to make an educated estimate of the numbers if you take the time, but what company ever releases all their numbers down to the single digit? They are all estimates.

 

Ferrari sold some 6700 *new* vehicles last year, plus their dealers sold some amount of used Ferraris and other dealers/private citizens/auctions sold some number more.

I would wonder if there are as many used sales as new. Even if there are twice as many used cars being sold each year as new, that's about 13,000 used Ferraris that probably average $80k/each when the old Mondial coupes are averaged in with the 575's...$1 Billion/year.

So, $2 Billion per year for new Ferraris and $1 Billion per year for used is a $3 Billion market globally.

Figure in the usual Sheehan or internet exaggerations and you'd expect people to claim about double that for the market size.

 

Vince, you need to relax. If Sheehan is correct, and some people believe him, so what? If he is wrong, and some people believe him, so what?

Sheehan is not a market-maker, he's a used car dealer.

 

You are very correct, so I have yielded the soap box.

 

As to the used car dealer, Mike has been around much longer that most in the F business and there is a lot of BS re prices. I find his opinions to be pretty much in line with reality.

As to opinions on the market, "a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest", so sayeth Paul Simon

 

+1

 

What about timing belts? Wooden F50s? NSXs versus 348s? Seems like lots of new topics, IMO...

 

Ferrari S.P.A official 2007 results. Does not include transactions in auctions, non-franchsied dealers, etc.

6465 road cars
Revenue - 1,668 million euros
Net financial position (roughly net income) - 299 million euros