Vehicles that are in a resale free fall?

The S65/CL65 Mercedes are dropping about $1500/month or more for a 2005 model. They are already roughly half of MSRP. It will be interesting to see where they bottom out for a solid car with 50k miles: $60k? $50k? $40k?

We lost half on my wife's basically perfect '05 C320 (30k miles) when we traded it in last fall. Someone got a very nice car for the low '20s. OTOH, I bought a low-mile used ML500 for 40% of MSRP at the same dealership also, so I guess it cancelled out.

Anything with Jaguar on the hood has horrific depreciation. Three years old, count yourself lucky to get 50% of original MSRP.

Maseratis seem to lose value pretty quickly too. Actually driving them only accelerates this. Older '02-04 coupes are well on their way to $25k with a few miles.

 

Daimler Chrysler took a huge hit when they released all of their existing inventory through dealer auctions last summer. I bought a new 2005 SRT6 last May for $25,000 (original MSRP was $45K). Now, one year later with 18,500 miles, I'd be lucky to get $18k retail for it.

 

Resale value on my 06 benz E55 is in the toilet. I want to trade it in but I cant stomach getting $38k for a car I paid $78k for just 2.5 yrs ago.

 

Especially with diesel currently being more expensive than gas, that stretches out the payback even farther.

I would be interested in the E55 mileage as well. That could be a hell of a car to pick up for relatively cheap.

 

Im mostly city driving and its around ~14 ...if Im heavy on the bevel it easily drops to 10.

I like the car and will now keep it for longer than I expected (should have leased) but I wanted to try something new like a Quattroporte.

 

The Escalade is taking a pounding as well. The previous generation is really cheap and the '07's are fading fast.

 

I think new Lambos just depreciate as always. Fuel is not that much of a factor because of the low use.

I've been tracking 996GT2's and they have stabilized at $100k over the last year. I was hoping for another 20k. Once again low use. Its the everyday transportation cars that are getting the hit. Passed by a Ford truck dealer west of Fort Worth and they had acreage across the freeway mowed to park the unsold trucks. They may be hoping for a brush fire.

Cant even imagine what the twin engined supercharged boat market is doing.

 

I believe that the LP was poised for massive depreciation from the start. It was a huge jump in price from the previous Murcielago, with very little to justify the increased cost. In addition, a new SV (or whatever) Murci is right around the corner. Once that car comes out, I would expect to see LP values dive even more.

 

Jaguars are also way off, a friend of mine at the dealer here told me a story about a customer who wanted to buy their car off lease but felt the residual was too high, so the dealer bought the car from Jag. Credit and sold to the customer, 10k under residual and the dealer still made 9k on the deal.

 

If there isn't a long line to order one spec from the factory, it's going to drop. High-end Mercedes take some of the biggest hits. But hey, wait a couple years and you can get a $200K car half of with 10K miles.

 

Any vehicle that uses a lot of fuel. A fancy souped up work truck with the biggest motor available would be first on my list to sell. Any family vehicle like an SUV, cross over or truck would be for sale and any car in need of work in regards to fuel economy should be sold.

 

At least a work vehicle's costs could be somewhat offset by the tax deductions. Mommy with two years left on her lease, driving her two kids around in a Yukon XL, is the one who will get soaked.

 

I always check 69- 70 Shelby Mustang prices on ebay, a GT500 used to be $150 -200 K

just saw 1 for $90k

maybe in a year or 2 I'll snap 1 up for half that & an e type too

 

A work truck is one thing, a truck with full leather, nav etc was what I was mentioning. They can't be crushed fast enough around here, you'll get more from recycling it than selling it.

 

I still think there is a lot of money to be made-off SUV's and heavy-duty trucks... just not in the U.S.!

If prices drop enough on these particular late-model examples, they will surely be sent abroad (ie. Middle East, Eastern Europe & Russia) and be sold there rather easily. Already certain desired models are shipped to the developing Gulf countries (ie. Jeep Grand Cherokee, GM H2, Chevy Yukon/Tahoe, Cadillac Escalade, Lincoln Navigator, Ford F-250/F-350, GMC trucks, and basically any U.S. spec' compact/mid-sized import SUV).

Basically what my cousin does from Japan to South America & Middle East will shift slightly towards the U.S. to Middle East. He basically exports light-transportation vehicles (vans/wagons, people-carriers), light/heavy-duty trucks, SUVs, light-construction vehicles from Japan to abroad, as he gets them at a very lucrative cost due to ever-changing specs'/emissions/etc' in Japan.

I might want to get in on this, lol...

 

I found this Article from Old Cars weekly in March 08

Seems muscle car market is finally collapsing

What's it Worth? Value Trends Show the Way of the Future of the Old Car Hobby
March 12, 2008

by By Gerald Perschbacher
(Editor’s note: Gerald Perschbacher is a pricing consultant for Old Cars Price Guide, a bi-monthly periodical covering values from 1930-2001, and its annual companion book, “2009 Collector Car Price Guide,” which covers values from 1905-2001.” Below are some of Mr. Perschbacher’s recent observations regarding pricing trends.)

The above question has been linked to our hobby since Day One. Don’t anticipate that it will fade away. It’s here to stay, as well it should. Collecting cars carries costs, so astute collectors are interested in valuations. So will the buyer who is entering the hobby, upgrading models or building a collection. Insurance companies, repair shops and estate executors have similar interest in values.

How are values “running” these days? I’ve done some heavy research recently, so sit back and read about my findings.

Avanti

Among postwar cars, I was intrigued by values on Avanti automobiles, the first-generation models offered by Studebaker in 1963 and 1964. The Avanti has a strong following, even for succeeding versions following the passing of the Studebaker name.

Selling prices can range from $5,000 on up, well into the $20-$30,000 range for 1963 and 1964 versions. Collectors like the styling, which remains fresh and creative well after Raymond Loewy completed his design.

Generally, Studebakers are not high on the escalator of rising values in comparison to Ford and Chevrolet products. But among the Studebaker lineup, the Avanti name carries magic. If you want a model that will continue to rise, I’d bet on it.

DeLorean

What about DeLorean? A mixed bag, for sure. Innovative in its day, the stainless-steel body flashes attention. However, there are drawbacks. Try to get one in great condition. If it needs body work, think carefully. You can’t putty a spot and shoot it with paint. Stainless steel is the actual skin. It’s hard to work and hard to buff and match other panels. As for values, those of you with long-term memories will recall what happened when the DeLorean was introduced. A couple decades ago, it was all the rage, thanks to the flamboyant nature of its namesake. Back then, I can recall cars selling new for $27,000 or more.

Speculators shivered when demand dipped. In a couple years, those fine DeLoreans were priced at $16,000 and were not easily moved. Today, I’ve seen nice DeLoreans priced around $27,000. Value-wise, that’s a dip from the buying power of the dollar when the car sold new. My advice is this: if interested, hunt for the best one you can find. After all, do you recall seeing any in salvage yards? Most still exist, tucked quietly in garages. Seek and find.


Buicks like this 1925 Buick roadster are steady value risers. While the car slowly rises in value, owners can have immeasurable fun.

Muscle cars

Muscle cars are running a bumpy stretch in the market. I’ve heard seasoned auction participants say that the “fun crowd” is shrinking. Those are the people who like to party around old cars and gain publicity in the process. It’s not hard to do the math. Paying $150,000 for a muscle car a year ago and watching the same car cross the auction block at $80,000 today is a definite loss. Who wants to be a loser?

If the “fun crowd” lets car values seek a natural level, then we will continue to see a retrenching of postwar hot-car values. Few people are bold enough to predict those values right now. In a few months, auction trends may form a predictable pattern. My advice: watch carefully; think wisely.

It’s a clear case of values drifting down. It happens occasionally. Then market demand adjusts itself.

Postwar cars

If you like cars from the 1950s and older, into the immediate pre-World War II era, then don’t expect values to drop. They often rise steadily, plateau for a while, then rise slowly again. In the long run, this makes for the type of value increase that stockbrokers might call “Blue Chip” performance — steady and sure.

Cars from the 1950s are still great values. They offer fun in motoring, can be easier to repair and maintain than newer cars and are increasing at a comfortable rate. Demand is good. The supply for fine examples is still growing as cars come out from hiding. Much can be said of cars from the 1960s and 1970s.


Prices for some early open Cadillacs, like this 1909 model, have increased 22 percent in recent years.

Prewar luxury cars

Luxury prewar models are a mixed bag. Since the demand for V-12 and V-16 engines from the 1930s has increased, the “super Classics” seem to attract more attention. Is it an investment prospect? The desire to fulfill a dream? The wish to tour with comfort and reliability? The prestige of ownership? The extra availability of disposable cash? Perhaps all of these, and more.

So watch the prices fluctuate. Will there be jumps as with muscle cars? There may be truth in that statement. Massive convertibles, custom-bodied versions, and boat-tail forms usually lead the upward spiral. Celebrity ownership and other notable provenance fuel the rise even farther.

Will these “super Classics” be priced beyond the range of the vast majority of hobbyists. Possibly. Then again, there could be some jerky downward movement, depending on the seriousness of collectors. If buyers become edgy in light of a weak national economy, lower valuations may follow — or at least prices will plateau. Will values jump up appreciably thereafter? Indeed, it is possible. Some might say they hope it is probable. With this mindset, owning a “super Classic” may very well be the best of “Blue Chip” investments.

I hope you want to own a nice, old car for more than just investment. It’s a risky investment when you think about it. One accident can demolish your car, leaving you wheel-less to work out a settlement with insurance companies that may not have an appreciation for honest old car values. Better to own a car for fun and enjoyment than to roll it around as a dollar sign on wheels.

Would you be surprised to learn that many owners of old cars think their vehicles are more valuable than price guides indicate? Deep down, it’s human nature to want to “make a killing” with a high profit. People like to brag about such victories. String together several high prices from a variety of similar sales, and a trend can be established. Good, bad or otherwise, it can happen.

Happily, most hobbyists simply want a fair price for their car. They reason that an increase would be nice, but it does not have to pay for an entire college education. Bravo the thought!


Marmons have seen a steady 3-percent increase, but brass-era and Classic models, like this 1931 Marmon Sixteen LeBaron close-coupled sedan, are extremely difficult to chart as their prices have been strong.

How can you establish a fair price for your vintage car? Examine reputable value guides. If no inflation factor has been built in, then calculate it yourself. Here’s how it works. According to my investigation, the 2007 inflation factor ranged from 1.25-4.5 percent, with a general average of 2.96 percent over the past two years. Round it off to 3 percent. If you pick up a year-old value guide, do the math. This could be the minimum increase you might expect. Remember, you may have a model that is slipping slightly in value, and the inflation factor could be negated in the process. That is something you would have to determine.

There are exceptions. I’ve established a “percentage rule.” As values of cars reach the sky, the percentage rate drops slightly. Look at it this way: Most price hikes come on lesser-priced items. You’ll see greater price rises on commodities selling for less than $100 than you would for items selling for $1,000. Carry this thinking to rises in gasoline prices. Is the same percentage fluctuation seen in the price of houses? No.

Hence, to reflect the range in higher-priced cars, the “percentage rule” works this way: an annual 3 percent increase for cars valued up to $70,000; a 2.5-percent increase from $70,000 to $79,999; and a 2-percent increase on cars more than $80,000.

Trends by marque

Auburn — Fine collector cars. Many are reasonably priced and will continue to hold values. Increases seem gradual and steady.

Buick — In general, a steady riser. I’ve noticed an increase in the 1929 models. The 116 four-door sedan in top condition can break $20,000, with the 121 sedan close behind. Convertibles from 1929 have jumped as high as 20 percent. Other 1929 Buicks seem to have risen in demand by 10 percent. All 1930 and 1931s up by 10 percent; convertibles for those years by 20 percent.

Cadillac — 1909-1914 versions are very similar (the Model 30 was introduced in 1909). Excellent examples of touring cars from this period can rise well past $50,000. In effect, individuals have witnessed a 22-percent increase on open cars and 11-percent increase on closed models from 1909 to 1914. There seems to be a 9-percent increase on non-custom Cadillacs from 1915 through 1927 and a 4-percent increase for the Custom line, 1926-’27 roadster. Fleetwoods from 1915-’27 are up 4 percent. LaSalle models appear to be rising at a modest and steady rate. Open versions seem to be increasing in demand, although comparable sporty Cadillacs are often preferred.

Chevrolet — For 1920-’24, all models have inched up by 8 percent. There is a 5-percent rise for 1925-’29 models. The Four-Ninety shows modest increase from 1916 through 1919, now lingering as high as $22,000 for a touring car. The 1940-’42 coupes are up 10 percent. This is an interesting trend to watch. Are coupes on the rise in general, regardless of make?

Chrysler — Models from 1924 to 1929 have witnessed rises from 5 percent to 7 percent. Models that were at the low end of the Chrysler range have a lesser increase. High-end Chryslers and Imperials are increasing, with 1938 and 1939 Imperial Custom sedans and limousines reaching well above $30,000.

American-Austin/Bantam, De Soto, Essex, Franklin, Gardner, Graham-Paige, Hupmobile, Studebaker and Willys have held modest gains of about 3 percent.

Dodge and De Soto — Victory models have jumped by 5 percent for 1928 and 1929. The 1929 Senior Series is up by 4 percent. De Soto, with an occasional exception, shows about a 3 percent increase.

Ford — Runabouts have gained in popularity. Example: the 1909-’11s are up 8 percent. Brass roadsters from 1912-’15 are up 7 percent. The 1936 Deluxe sedan (Tudor and Fordor models) has jumped by around $800. 1936 coupes show a $600 increase. Remainder of Fords, 1930-’42, are up by 3 percent.

Hudson — In top condition, two-door sedans from 1922 to 1924 are right near the $10,000 level, making them enjoyable and affordable buys for many people. The Terraplane has a similar following. Both makes realize a slight rise of about 3 percent. The Whippet is a similar good buy, valued far less than $10,000 for fine examples.

Crosley — This make is perhaps the best bargain, with prices near the bottom of most value lists. Don’t expect appreciable jumps in values as time goes on.

Lincoln and Locomobile — All years and models, prewar, can generally follow the “percentage rule.” There will be select models that jump higher, due to custom design, outstanding original condition, masterful restoration or rarity. Locomobile follows the same pattern as Lincoln.

Marmon, Rambler, Jeffery and Nash — I’ve noticed a basic 3-percent increase, with some exceptions, especially in the brass or Classic models.

Cord, Oldsmobile and Stutz — These marques will follow the “percentage rule,” with notable exceptions. When high-demand custom cars are considered, values are practically on an individual-car level. Oldsmobile closed cars for 1940-’42 have shown a slight increase by $600. The Series 96 and 98 are up by $700.

Packard and Pierce-Arrow — The “percentage rule,” with exceptions, of course. Recent prices are all over the field for custom-bodied cars. Custom Super Eights and 180 long-wheelbase models from 1940-’42 have increased as follows:
1808, 1908, 2008
7 pass sedan $51,000-$51,000 $38,000
Limousine $52,000-$55,000 $41,000

Plymouth — Some great bargains are still available. Plymouth seems to be under-appreciated among collectors. Pity, since these were very fine cars in their day, usually offering comfort and mechanical ability a notch above Chevrolet and two notches above Ford, until the early 1930s. So prices for four-door sedans languish around $10,000 or less. For 1932 through 1939, rumble-seat coupes are up 20 percent.

Pontiac — Cars of this marque carry a 3-percent rise in values, but its companion Oakland has about a $500 increase for most models from 1918-’27.

Reo — Touring cars for 1925 and 1926 are into the $30,000 to $33,000 range.

Regional prices may vary widely. The same holds true for areas where certain desirable makes of cars were not common when new. Any value listing you check should accommodate these variables without slanting the entire results. This means you can make your own regional adjustments on values shown in a printed guide. To expect a single guide to carry prices that hold true across the land would be comparable to everyone paying the exact same price for a gallon of gasoline. It just doesn’t happen — and probably shouldn’t.

Enjoy your car. Appreciate it for what it is…or is becoming. Realize its value even beyond the dollar sign.

 

Last I checked, there were at least 100 2007 Escalades on ebay with low to no miles. $60k plus sticker, selling for low $40's practically new. Unfortunately, I bought one last Fall for my wife and thought I did good getting 0% for 60 months. I owe $54k, and might be able to sell it for $45k with only 5k miles.

 

While those big pickups stickered for 48k a couple years ago. . .they most likely sold in the mid to high 30's new with manufacturer and dealer rebates just to move them out of the door. But still ~37-39k to 18k is a pretty big drop.

And as for a any sort of Mercedes. . . the typical buyer or a brand-new Mercedes isn't concerned with plebian concepts like depreciation. Same thing with Range Rovers. "Miles per gallon" is hardly the cause here.

 

Ha! I guess Im not typical because if I had known (my own fault for not looking into it) I woulnt have bought it.

 

Just for fun I "built" an H-D F250 and loaded it up to see where the sticker goes. You can end up with an MSRP of over $60k just with factory options.