What sort of depreciation will the California have?

my guess is that it will depreciate at similar rates to the AM V8 Vantage, SL63, etc as that is its real "competition"

 

I'm guessing a slight premiun for the first year or two.

 

Can someone tell me why this matters?

 

Good news! It's not a car for speculators to make money on.

Bad news! That's because you will lose your shirt on one...

Good news! 'Used' buyers won't have to wait very long for prices to reach reasonable levels (3 years?)

Bad news! But they will also take a bath as prices continue to nose dive.

Bottom line - given the volume of production, this car will follow a main stream depreciation profile (e.g. SL style). Buy one with this in mind, just as any SL buyer would, and life will be fine. Expect more, and life will be unhappier.

 

Anyone who buys a Ferrari (or any car for that matter) as an investment or they are worried about it's possible depreciation has their priorities screwed up.

 

Doubt it's going to be hit like the SL... after all it has the horsey up front.

 

sorry but this is dumb. the market determines the appreciation/depreciation of the car. no one knows. Californias will be produced at near 5k per right? thats no where close to sl numbers and its still not that many cars, but the bottom line is simply that if the car is a great car it will be in high demand.

it certainly is aimed at a high demand part of the market, practical yet sporty, convertible hardtop.

 

Who knows. Probably a slight premium early (economy is in the tank right now), then the usual cliff-dive depreciation. The sports cars have always held their value best. The touring cars (400/412/456/550/575/599/612) not as well.

FWIW, the market is saturated with used 360s and to some degree F430s with low mileage. I'm not clear that the California can sustain much markup in the face of the current glut, especially with plans to produce 5,000 annually. (Remember, the 360, of which they stamped out 18,000 units, was launched during the 'Dot Com' boom. The California is supposed to sell even more, during the global credit crisis. Go figure.)

 

Amen. Maybe Californias will actually be DRIVEN. Mile upon mile put on them, heaven forbid. It is comical when some poor soul starts a thread, asking about a 2001 360 with 14,000 miles and (which for every other car other than a Ferrari would be LOW miles), EVERYONE on the forum says "leave it, too many miles". It's very fashionable to say "If you can't pay cash for a Ferrari, you can't afford it". What a bunch of junk. Buy it, lease it, whatever...if you have a 2 year old car with 1000 miles on it, you COULDN'T afford the freakin' thing either, as you're clearly concerned about depreciation.

Thanks, rant over.

Jimmy

 

Depreciation is pretty bad for most cars. Say you bought an expensive Mercedes AMG for 150K. If you drove it and tried to sell it 10 years later, I would bet depreciation would be over 80% You'd sell it for 20-25K. I know a little about this as I bought a CL500 in 2000 when they first came out for 97K- they were going 15-35K over sticker that first year. Now eight years later, the dealer told me its worth less than 15K!

With a Ferrari, the hardest years are probably 4-9 where values can fluctuate alot. After about 10 years they all seem to reach a stable market value. But the point is that there is a market for them which keeps the depreciation from going to 80 or 90% after 10 years.

 

Given the direction that our economies are headed, I'd say any premium, and a small one at that, will only occur for those few at first who just gotta have it, until these cars start showing up enmass.

 

It will be interesting given the volume and knowing how much Ferrari tends to spike its prices every year. Imagine in 2011 with 12,000 already being out there and a new one being priced at $280K - $300k by then; the used ones being out of warranty could be $120K cars.

 

I agree with you! The car has not even entered the market yet and we are supposed to discuss depreciation? A little premature.

 

Sorry but the sl is over 20 K /

 

The real answer lies in a couple of yet to be determined factors:

1. How good is the car? If it is as good as the factory claims and it does everything right without niggling issues it will be in high demand, like the 599 and will probably command a premium until there are a few thousand out there
2. How many will come to the US versus new markets for Ferrari like China, Russia, India etc. If the market is flooded with cars and they are available off the dealer floor they will show signs of depreciation in line with their competitors, which price wise, will be the DB9 convertible and the SL600 / SL65

 

So a 599 is not a sports car???? Of course the 599 has taken a huge depreciation hit!!! i will be shocked if Ferrari doesnt sell everyone at full msrp...it most likely wont have the 4 year waiting lists of the 360 and 430s but it will sell none the less...and it will hold its value better than a sl....

 

It already has. When you see US msrp you'll remember this post...

 

You love the California like ernie loves Jesus!

 

They had better hope not............

 

It's a GT. I think it's 1,000 lbs (?) heavier than the F430 Scuderia.

If you want to estimate, look at the 550 price curve. Those are pushing 10 years old now, and can be had for around $90K. What was MSRP + markup on those? That's probably the right benchmark, not the SL.

 

Or maybe even as much as Jesus loves Ernie, or all of us for that matter

 

Actually, I'm not sure what that means. But, in any event, I stand by my statement that if someone is worried about depreciation of a Ferrari when they are making a decision to buy it, they have their priorities screwed up. Buy a stock, buy some comic books, buy a painting, buy tulip bulbs.... whatever. You'll be happier. And, maybe we'll see fewer 2005 F430's for sale on Ebay with 1500 miles on them. What a waste. No, its a tragedy because a true lover of the car had to wait 3 years while someone kept one in the garage as an "investment".

Whether or not I like the California does not make my statement untrue. Buy the car because you love it. If you're worried about your "investment", you'll never be satisfied while you let a true supporter of the car move up one spot in the cue.

 

Perhaps he is hinting that MSRP will be lower than has been rumored so far? Maybe the car hasn't been as well-received as Ferrari initially hoped for and timing is poor so they will be cutting profit on the car some to increase interest in it??