Australian sub prime mortgage market.

The key numbers according to technical analysis are ~ 4260, ~ 3444 and ~2628. Market went convincingly through 4260 a little while back, implying that around 3444 is the next target. If it punches through that, then 2628 is quite possible.

Is it a good time to buy long term ? - you need to ask yourself why are you buying today? Have you heard any news that suggests the economy is picking up ? Do you think that "everything" has been revealed about the financial positions of major institutions. Has consumer sentiment improved.?
On the other hand the market is certainly better value than 12 months ago, so on that basis it' a better time to buy.

Personally I am not buying for investment ATM, just for(limited) trading, quite happy to sit on the sidelines and not play seriously.

M

 

Technical analysis? Are you serious? Gimme a break!

 

I was going to give a detailed explanation and say "from studying tea leaves and consulting the tarot" but "technical analysis" sounds more respectable and covers all the bases.
M

 

oh my...a non believer!

lol...better!

 

US just dropped the Rate by another 0.5%, they don't have much leeway left over there, we are still at 6.5% and prediction is to go another 0.5 to 1% before year end.

 

lock in those savings I guess!

 

Hehe! Time to buy up more property!

 

surely not yet!

 

Well.....not just *yet*. But next year, mid next year I think will be a nice time to buy.

 

would we see another property crash with houses in FarKew, Whore-thorn, Too-wrack half its value like the crash in the late 80s?

 

Don't know about the possibility of a 50% drop, but prices have fallen in the top end suburbs, at least according to my sister who just moved there this week.

M

 

just saw a very nice silver SL55 AMG merc travelling along the pacific highway heading towards brisbane with the number plate BULLETS being driven by guess who?






















eddie groves

****ing classic!!!!

life must be hard having to commute in a car as opposed to a chopper

 

feedback from several agents when buying my place was that entry/mid level property still quite strong in the melb inner east, its the big dollar stuff thats had the biggest thump

 

So will the US election have any effect?
Maybe short term on the US market, at least?

 

Probably,

but as what effect, no idea

M

 

I'm with Pap here. Watching prices carefully here, nearly all top end stuff tumbling fast and expected to bottom out mid 09. Could be as much as 40%, Ouch! Just did a re-finance for a guy, value in April $2.4m, new report in today $1.6m with the comment, 'value cannot be expected to hold in the current climate' covering ones ar*e or what! Another factor creeping in is the lack of finance for those who WANT to buy. Unless they fit they mainstream lending, no deal, or a deal at 3 to 6% over Bank!

 

As for US Elections - Since 1942... Bear [1.87 years avg.], then Bull.

Read, then analyze - Table 3 is most compelling
http://gbr.pepperdine.edu/043/stocks.html

 

so, don't invest for 2 years ?

 

Sweet - two more years of excuses for drinking beer and being harassed by family-oriented people thinking they need to fix my life by telling me to buy a house and knock someone up when I'm quite happy renting and rooting.

 

Yep yep. Always IS the top end stuff that takes a hit first because there is a smaller market for those expensvie homes and no one can afford them so the ass drops out of them.

The 'normal' family home market is still doing ok and rent is stronger than ever.

I didnt that article, but is that the US or world over they are talking about?

 

Ah yes, nothing like R & R!

 

i think a couple of suburbs in brisbane are fairly insulated from a major fall in prices, esp the houses where it's all about location location location and specs that tick all the boxes.

 

Anything inner City> within 5km is usually gold!