I think F40's will bottom out at 200K and F50's at 250K in about two years from now. I think they'll bounce around the bottom for another year after that and then slowly climb back to where they were today. Today I think you can get a good F40 for 450K and a good F50 for 600K. Once again simply what I think and I could be wrong and if I am it won't be the first time that I was.
Assuming that this economic downturn goes deeper and uglier, even if more could afford an F40 or F50 at those prices, it may become too politically incorrect to pick one up.
Any "Euro" F50 built after December 31st 1995 is ineligible for import into the USA, so only about 50 Euro cars fall in the net.
I'm not sure I agree with some of the speculation here. Being someone who owns a fair amount of cars (and knows a few people in a similar situation) - I'm not seeing massive widespread selling pressure at a certain level and above (financially speaking). A number of my friends still have all their cars and are considering adding cars to their collections. Yes ... there are ALOT of 360s and 430s for sale and they have been plummeting in value right along with the financial markets, however, I haven't seen widespread plummeting in values for most higher end cars (supercars). Maybe isolated cases here and there but not on a widespread basis. People who own F40s, F50s, Enzos, etc. are usually people who buy their cars with cash and have a certain net worth that is not immediately affected by economic turmoil. Their assets are diversified and they usually have cash reserves. F40s were in the $300s three years ago and rose to almost $600k at their peak. Today they might be in the mid to high $400k range. That's certainly not widespread depreciation. It's a market adjustment that isn't even in line with the financial turmoil we're experiencing. They've dropped in value but they're still higher than they were three years ago. Same goes for the CGT. They dropped into the low $300s at dealers (new cars) and then rose to the mid to high $400s at their peak. Now they're back down to the $300s again. Is this massive depreciation and plummeting values? It seems to me that the supercars and collectibles (Stradale) are holding their values quite well considering the global economic situation. There is a ton of cash on the sidelines waiting for the next wave of opportunity. Some of that cash is going into collectible cars. Will Enzos hit $500k? Never. I don't care if the global economy gets 50% worse. There are only 400 of these cars and there are 400 multi millionaires/billionaires who will be standing in line to buy a $500k Enzo. Anyone have one for sale at $500k? I'm a buyer now!
Thank you jim. The 'cheapest' F40 in europe at the moment is 270K euro, which is roughly 400K us (havent checked FX converter recently). some are for sale up to around 400K euro. Interesting though, An F40 formerly owned by Nigel Mansell was for sale for 250K euro. Personally, i think in europe F40, F50 and enzo prices will depreciate a little, maybe 25-30% at most. Why? In the usa, people pay a lot of money for cars like the scuderia, around $450K or even more sometimes. In europe, there are allready a few under the 200K euro for sale, some with little milage still. We'll see!
Never? If the global economy gets 50% worse from here Enzo's will be worth ZERO. That is pure fact. The World will be in flames. People will be eating each other.
This thread is getting a little carried away. I don't know the price of the Enzo in question but if it sells could it be posted?
I think it is. There is still a lot of pain coming and sadly many will really suffer but the politicians of the world are scared to death and will spend massive amounts of money to get things going such as China's announced Infrastructure 600 billion stimulus. This will start the long road back and the market is/has bottomed as it see's recovery slowly beginning in about 12 months. I do think it will take five years to get back to where we were six months ago. Leverage and greed almost killed us but almost is different than did.
Was it Warren Buffet that just said in the New York Times, "A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful." Smart guy, that Warren Buffet.
Buffet is a classic contrarian but not everything he does is perfectly timed. Witness Goldman Sachs today, trading at close to half the price WB paid for it a few weeks ago. However he can afford to hold it, and on balance he's the best stock picker over the long term that ever was. I try to buy at least one Berkshire A share every year on my birthday, as gift to my descendants.
Sorry. Still disagree. But that's okay. We can agree to disagree on this fact. I do agree that the global economic situation will continue to worsen before it gets better. I think there is still another shoe (or two or three) to fall before we can even think of a recovery. But will Enzos reach $500k? Highly unlikely IMO. Again ... just my opinion. In the event they do ... I hope I haven't been eaten by someone so I can buy one.
In all fairness, Buffett didn't walk in and buy a bunch of common shares. He struck a deal the average guy couldn't by obtaining 10% yielding preferred's.
+1 Also perfect timing is not possible. For an average investor I´m pretty sure that accumulating shares over the next 3-9 months will turn out to be a great buy in 3-5 years time. I agree prices will fall, however we will never, never seee Enzo´s at usd 350k. 500k is not unlikely after the "F70" is launched in a tough economic environment. Same with F40, will not go to usd 200k, I wish they did however. Just to many that can afford 350k cars vs +1 mill cars.
Smart guy, but human. And proven wrong many times. Where did he buy Goldman? Where is it now? (I know he recieved consessions, but consessions do not come near compensating for that gap) I commend him for acting (not thinking) positive at a critical time. Bora
Have the current conditions delayed the release of the next supercar? Or is it really going to be an F70 to commemorate the 70th and therefore quite some time away regardless of the economy?
