F40 prices sinking fast? Asking below $499k and no takers

Napolis... I share your views here especially as I watch the credit markets freeze again and layoffs mount. I think we could see unemployment over 9% before this bottoms and I don't care what industry you are in... things will slow dramatically. And the impending deflationary period followed by inflationary period triggered by the fed response to the former will cause additional havoc. Don't get me started on consumer credit, etc.

But back to Ferrari

We are already witnessing the modern, standard Ferraris plummet in value... 360, 430, 599, etc...

Wanted to get your view on values this time around on the Vintage market and a few specific models. My feeling is:

- F40 will break under $250K
- Challenge Stradale will hit $100K and may continue down
- 250GT Lusso will break under $300K
- 430 Scuderia will head towards $150K
- 250GT SWB goes to ?
- 275GT/4 goes to ?
- Random one: Aston Martin DB5 goes under $200K

What are your thoughts above and current expectation on the timing for the bottom?

 

Quite an interesting debate, but there are some things to consider. As for the european F40s, the car you refer to is offerd ex VAT so this is not the full price.
And lower down in your link, there are other F40s trading at higher prices. In fact, over the last 2 years the F40s in europe has gotten more expensive. About 2 years ago they traded for 200-250 K Euro. I tried to buy my old car back in this segment, but did not manage this. As of now, most F40s in europe trade around 280-320 K Euro, as does the british car in your link and the ProTrade car including VAT.

The economy is in a nightmare, and maybe Ford an GM will go bankrupt. Unbelievable as historic facts, but look at the products they offer. How can they even reasonably compete on a wider scale in todays market, with part ancient technology? But this is not my point, and neither was I trying to offend any Ford or GM fans, sorry if I did.
But as sympols of crisis, their problems are as much product related as due to financial crisis. But back to F40s.

The party is over, is stated. What kind of party? The speculators party? Yes, of course, you can no longer buy a funny car and drive it for a month and sell it with a profit. But the F40 owners are - as I know them from friends in europe - another breed. For them the party is still on and comes from owning a piece of motoring history. It´s a party everytime you drive it, and they are not going to sell it just because of economic turnmoil. Or putting it bluntly, most F40 owners are rich enough not to have to dump their car due to the crisis. This is how I see it, and the low prices will only come from persons with a desperate need to realise cash, some unlucky speculators.
But not the core market for F40s. So if you look for a flood of F40s at premium prices up for sale in the market, I think you are wrong. Even if one car is offered for a very low price, it will not trigger the F40 owners and collectors on a wider scale to sell. They do not have to and do not want to. The flood will not appear, and do not confuse a handful of sales from unlucky overinvested speculators with the general development in other areas. Do not compare it to 360´s or 430´s or 599´s. These cars come in plenty, and have a totally different type of owners.

Look at what is offered on mobile.de, or in italy on autoscout24com. Or from the F40 specialist DK engineering. You will not find a price trend to match your theory, but instead that the prices hover around 300 K euro, which is higher than 2 years ago. Why? Well, I think that people have realised during these years that a car like the F40 is worth at least as much or more than a mass production 430 or 599. This is Enzos last masterpiece, and not a mass production car like the others, so it has moved from the 200 K euro of 2 years ago to the current 300 K euro. And there they will stay.

Well, these are my experiences from the european market and following some trends out of interest. I am the secretary of the swedish Ferrari-club, so I know some people in the UK, Italy, Germany and around europe from this. I have talked with some of them about this as well, and they do not believe we will se prices below todays level in europe in more than single cases of desperate speculators. But these unlucky few are not the trend setters.

Hope I did not offend anyone, and if i did, it was not intentional regarding Ford or GM or 360/430/599 owners.

But it is an intersteing debate!

 

Seriously? Are we talking US Dollar or Euro. I thought Enzo's were recession proof?

 

Time will tell. As for VAT there is no VAT for an American who buys a car in Europe and brings it back to the US. There is only
2.5% customs duty.

There are many who bought cars because they love them, can afford them, don't care what they may be worth, and plan to pass them on to their families but there are also many who bought them because they thought this tree was growing to the sky.

Best

 

He said F 40's. Enzo's could drop to 300K. Last time cars dropped 80% from their high tick. The high tick for Enzo's and F 40's was 1.5MM. If 250 GTO's dropped that much F40's and Enzo's can too.

F 40's have already lost more than 80% from their high tick once. In the US they've sold below 300K and bounced never reaching that high tick but recovering from the low.

It's a cycle and it will be a cycle again and again.

Those that can ride it out will be fine but in the crash down great cars will be let go for a song.

 

SOME GM & Ford cars are crap, but then again so are some MBs, FIATs, & Peugeots

The Z06 for example is Far from ancient technology. It has a partial carbon fiber body, aluminum frame,

I cant think of an EU or Japanese car that makes near the Z06s 505 hp w 25 mpg, most the big hp Euro cars use up a lot more gas

 

I would like to add a Canadain view point. I have been in the ferrari service business for ninteen years. In the late 90's f40's were $350 us. for new cars with less than 1000 miles. The cdn dollar was 65 cents to the us dollar, therfore an f40 cost $540 cdn. Recently our dollar was par with the us dollar and an f40 was $500-600 us. The price had not changed much! Today the car "may" be dropping in price but so is our dollar. The point of the story??? If your Canadain the odds are an f40 will always be $500 cdn.

 

Agreed.

You wish!

 

I wish for all good things!

But the doomsday trends in this thread is a little bit too exaggerated for what I see happening. Just as an example, last week in Italy, a friend of mine who is a collector tried to buy an F40 from a person who was selling. Price was Eur 330 K. The car was up for service and needed new tanks, which is quite costly. So he offered Eur 300 K, but the seller turned him down. He waited for a few days and got back to see if the seller had changed his mind. But the car was sold.

So I see no proof of the drastic drop in prices that are predicted here, and I do not expect to. The market for these cars is not, as I have pointed out, similar to the 360/430/599 market. Most owners are not speculators, and solvent individuals with a passion for this masterpiece. So why would they sell at low prices? Some will, but not many enough to upset the market. But surely, only time will tell, so let us keep this thread alive to find out!

Regards to you all!

 

I totally agree with you about the Z06. Fantastic car and fantastic value for money!
But it is not too long ago that the corvette was the C4 or even C5, quite a different car from the C6.
And it is - as i see it - the only one, sorry to say, and not intended to be rude. I have driven the new Mustangs, and some of the other new models,
but frankly, with the exception of the C6/Z06, I think there is room for improvement!

Regards!

 

Yes, we shall see. I applaud your sporting nature to the thread, by the way.

I'm no expert, but the way I see it, the capitulation on car pricing is just beginning. Although ebay may not be the most scientific method, the number of Ferraris for sale right now vs. the last time I looked (maybe 3 weeks ago), is starting to swell significantly.

I love the F40, for me it is the ultimate (hence my subscription to this thread). Working against it, however, is the number of cars produced. Working for it, as you say, is it's significance in Ferrari's history and it's overall awesomeness.

Maybe this debate will come down to semantics, but if we say ANY decent cars transacting at less than $300K USD, then in my opinion that constitutes a market price (rather than simply an outliar, since an outliar would be a very high mileage or salvage car).

The worse this economic situation gets, to see some price support is plausible. But to see stubborn refusal of prices to sink in the midst of virtually every other asset type in the world deflating would be remarkable indeed. The argument that current owners are "collectors with a passion" can be made for thousands of items, including rare art. Trust me, if those items were guaranteed to rise in value, or for that matter even hold their value (especially correcting for inflation), I'd be putting all my money into them!

How many F40s are currently for sale? I don't know - there are a lot of double listing and expired listings out there. But say it is 20? That is still a lot of "collectors" unloading their masterpieces when times dictate that they should hold, especially if they are solvent.

In any case, cheers - only time will tell.

 

Id say there are always about 2% of any Ferrari Supercar's production available for sale. In reality, thats a very small number relative to those 'holding'.

Because of the higher production of F40s (relative to the other supercars), this means there are generally about 25 F40s that can be purchased worldwide give or take. Interestingly that number hasnt changed much.

 

fire_n_ice; Yes, we shall see. I applaud your sporting nature to the thread, by the way.


My compliments to your very beautifil Testarossa!!

There is also an interesting counteracting mechanism, which involves people switching from stocks and bonds to real estate, art and collectibles in times like these.

But of course, we can only speculate, but 20 cars for sale is not going to upset the market. My friend in Italy already has two F40s, and the car he lost would have been his 3:d. So he is on the hunt again. He loves them, and would never sell. And I think there are only 2-300 US model F40s (not quite sure of the number, but very many!), so this small supply will be a match for demand for a long time to come!

Regards!

 

Caley you make sensible points. F40 prices are not plummeting in europe. They may look 25% cheaper to the US due to currency fluctuations on sterling or the euro but they can't import them anyhow without massive taxes. F40 prices have not risen in the same crazy wat that say 275GTB prices have and for this reason they will not fall back so much if much at all. For £250k or 300,000 euro they represent a bit of a bargin in classic Ferrari terms. I looked out some of my old classic car mags from 2000 and F40's were around the £150k mark so they havn't even doubled in 8 yrs

 

There are no taxes due. None. Custom's duty is 2.5% on any car imported to the US. (On US F 40's this has already been paid) Euro F40's have compliance issues but Race ones can be imported for track use today. They can be imported without restriction in about 5 years.

 

i have been offered 4 f40's in europe (and one in the usa where i cant buy it) in the last few months. one was the black one that sold at gstaad last yr and has been driven about 20km since. its a bit of a ba$tard given the non conforming race prep and the subsitute engine etc and the fact that it cant easily be registered anywhere - so we wont count that one.

the other 3 were all about the same in that they were around the 30km level, with virtually no mods, and they were 280, 300 and 310k euros. the first one needed belts, tanks, and tires. the other 2 were ready to roll with fresh services. as far as i know the black one has not sold. the 280k one has not sold since nobody has yet wanted to deal with the servicing. the one for 310 sold before i could even see it (along with an f50 and an enzo as a 3 pack)- so maybe there still are buyers out there. and the 300k one is still there. the dealer tells me he is expecting one in the spring and maybe that will be the one for me.

so far i have passed on all, for a few reasons.

1. i am concerned that my budget of today is not sufficiently conservative to weather everything that might come my way over the next few years. so even though i have been looking and i can currently afford it, the question i keep grappling with is : should i do so?

2. i have been contemplating buying this car for a couple years, but this is the first time i have been specifically called by a dealer and offered a car. i did not overnight become simon kidston or jim glickenhaus, so this tells me that those guys have ALREADY been called and passed. smarter money than me is waiting, so i should take the cue.

3. there are at least 40% of the production run in the hands of non-enthusiasts. these are the guys who in a pinch will sell the car because they are likely already underwater. out of the remaining 60% in enthusiast hands, some of these guys are also going to be hurting for any number of reasons - so they too will be selling. in any case, the average number of f40's for sale at any one time has and will increase, and this can only be good news for me the buyer. and the longer we move forward towards the abyss and people start losing their jobs, the better the pickings will be for those who havent - yet (see concern #1).

4. then there is the thought that maybe my other wish-list cars will also be available for fractions of their high tick. and maybe i should just hold my powder dry for a 275gtb, or a 300 sl, or (gasp) an enzo!

5. i am also concerned that i should not keep buying without having sold something first...so if there is anybody out there that would like a really perfect 512bbi let me know !

 

Thanks for the exact definition. But complaince issues are expensive and that in itself is a tax - US F40's / F50's are more expensive than European ones for that reason. You guys in the US said the RM London auction F50 was cheap. In London it was a good price at £315,000 ish ( I don't have the exact figure to hand).

 

My 40 was not for sale at 600. Its still not for sale at 400 and wont be at 200. If I ever sell it, it wont be because I need the money. So thats one off the list.

I've noticed Euro F50s are not nearly as expensive as US models, and considering getting a euro car and leaving it there, and enjoying it on trips to Italy.

 

Id like to see the raw data from which that analysis was drawn...



.

 

I will add myself and my car to yours, and 3 of my friends cars will definitly be added too. So that is 5 cars off the list, and interestingly enough, I have a feeling that we are already in majority against the reputedly falling prices*L*

Regards !

 

Good data to know. Thanks Joe.

 

Thank you! My first F-car, but hopefully first of many.

I will definitely be investing in real estate over the coming year. House prices in Toronto are now on their way down, after years of growth. Not much of an art and collectibles connoisseur, but I will view an F40 purchase, should it happen, as further diversification. I won't count on the market value increasing, though, and like you, would buy with the intention of never selling.

 

I made that same statement many times. When I bought my F40, I had no kids, and used the car often. A few years later we had a 2.5 year old and a 3 month old and the car was seldom used... it became a very expensive piece of art... and it did become an investment as it ceased to be a car, because I could not use it as one any longer... so I sold.

Never thought I'd sell, but life changes...

That said, I truely believe 1/3 of the supercars will never be sold (to me never means lifetime of the owner).

 

Speculate as much as you all like.....

The fact is unless you are dealer/trader no one should be buying these cars because they are looking to make a profit. Buy one because you want to, can afford it and importantly, the right car that has been looked after (should be more economical in the long run!). If you are always looking for the cheapest car/best deal it may turn out to be a false economy. The right cars will always fetch the right prices and will find their level. These are not cheap cars to run - end of.

I think more of these 'high end/rare cars' are in the hands of enthusiasts who bought one and can ride out the storm. Sure a few will / have got their fingers burnt because of the economy but I am sure the majority simply own them and enjoy them. Yes comparatively the F40 had a 'high' production run but try finding half decent/good one is not easy.

In the last week a mate of mine (dealer) has sold an Enzo and F40 at very respectable prices. The right cars will always sell.

 

ok, found another one for $360k. 28k miles. brembo brakes, hi flow exhaust, racing tranny, 2 sets of wheels, supposedly never been raced or wrecked. with geneva's largest non-official dealer.

what is your collective opinion? miles too high? too far away from classiche diploma?

http://www.autoscout24.ch/AS24Web/Detail.aspx?wl=1&lng=ger&id=5597295&qs=from%3dSearch%26make%3d27%26model%3d1732%26cur%3dCHF%26zipcountry%3dCH%26total%3d3&page=1&row=2