The Canadian Economy.

Good question. ;-)
I'm just stating the newspaper stating Statistiques Canada.

 

Unbelievable, the price of oil has dropped to $36.00 a barrel!

Gas prices shoud be around the .55 cent mark ya think??

 

I agree 100%. At $0.85 the price of gas is a joke. Oh well if you can't beat em' join um' I say - I just bought some Exxon Mobile stock the other day so hopefully I'll do Ok in the long term.

 

Don't remember the exact number, but I heard if it drops down to $30.00 or so the oil sands would shut down, as that is their operating cost and would be unprofitable to continue.

 

Absoltely. I can't believe the oil companies continue to blatantly gouge us, even in this climate. Hang on to your hats when things recover. A $60 barrel will equal $1.40 at the pump.

Infuriating.

 

A few years ago I heard that the "magic figure" of profitability for tar sands oil was $50.00/barrel. Guess that in the meantime a lot of the equipment has been amortized so production costs are lower...

 

In the Middle East, I bet a barrel of fresh water costs more than a barrel of oil to make.

 

My son-in-law spends 98% of his spare time "playing" in the stock market (and he has the funds to do it...he's co-owner and CEO of a small but very profitable manufacturing plant). His advice to me: Put $ 5K into a TD WebBroker TFS , then wait until he tells me to pull the trigger on some oil stocks (he'll tell me which ones). According to him, the time to do this is if/when oil drops to $28/barrel.

Assuming that he is right, the gains could be substantial and TAX FREE...

 

Yeah, but they pay for it with OIL!!!

 

Honestly, I haven't got a f**king clue what is going to happen in the future. I own a few businesses and am involved in several ventures worldwide. I know what I have to do to be profitable and stay afloat now. I sure wish the media would shut up though. They are perpetuating alot of the damage. It almost leads me to believe that this whole thing was engineered. I could fill this entire forum with theories however, I hope many of us will be prepared and come out of this relatively unscathed... best wishes to all.

f-man

 

Thanks for the well wishes. If you don't mind me asking...what type of worldwide business? We're always interested in hearing success stories like yours.

Cheers,

 

The only thing I'm sure about the Cdn economy these days is its a bad time to buy anything major, especially a house or exotic. Don't believe the 'expert flatulance' coming from the Cdn real estate board or others that home prices are really attractive now in view of declines. They've got a long way to go. I used to say I sold my house in Vancouver in Nov. 2007 bc. I expected prices to fall 15% in the future. Got lots of flack from naysayers on that. Well, its more than 15% now and some major comparison studies have been done, claiming that San Fransicso and Vancouver are very similar and what happens in SF is a good clue to Vancouver. Well, house prices in SF are down 38%. I see another 10% fall, or a full 25-30% decline for Vancouver. Exotic cars arn't moving either and with the continued tsunami and deepening depression (not recession) in the US, expect to see prices on used exotics continue to fall more than normal for the next 2 years, because nothing is going to get seriously better for at least another 2 years. In my own world, everything I own is down 25%, so even if prices do fall, I'm no better off as a purchaser. All hail those who hold cash. I've put my stock portfolio in my office drawer and don't plan on looking at it for 2 years. I've taken the insurance off my high flyers and am just letting them sit. Better days will come according Swami sunshine and his daily horoscope.

 

I don't entirely agree with that.

What if the (not so mighty) US and CDN Dollars devaluate or (heaven forbid) become worthless? It's possible; after all, it's just paper and not tied to the gold standard or anything tangible anymore.

Let's just say this happens, but you own a few pieces of real estate (paid off, of course). What do you think would be worth more in such a case? A wad of worthless paper or a house?


- I guess that's why they call land/houses REAL estate....

 

+1

In many countries, chickens and goats are more valuable than paper money.....

 

In this doomsday scenario, I think the masses will still be tempted by cash rather than a house. I agree logic states the house would be more valuable, but we don't live in a logical society. Cash is KING.

 

I am not an expert in investments or real estate but have a question: In this climate would it make sense to buy a more expensive house? My thinking goes somewhat like this: Let's say your house was worth $100,000 last year but has since taken a 25% hit (I'm using round numbers for easy math). Let's also say a $200,000 house you would like to buy also took a 25% hit. You sell your house for $75,000 and buy the other house for $150,000. To make the same upgrade last year would have cost you $100,000. This year it costs you $75,000. In the end, are you not ahead $25,000?
Here's why I ask. My wife and I have two girls (3 and 8 months) and hope to have one (or two? ) more. We have been aggressive in paying off our house so we could move to a bigger home (we'll need more space) in a better neighbourhood (with good schools) in the near future. With the economic uncertainty, we are now asking whether to stay put for a while or keep to the plan. I may be completely off base here but something tells me the current market might, actually, play into our favour.

Thoughts?

 

It is the best time to upgrade when times are bad
Worst time to downgrade

 

If it was my choice, I'd sit tight because my crystal ball says prices are going to come down more and choice will grow (due to growing supply). If you do buy now, 'trading up' you'll like face a situation of having to pay more to service a bigger mortgage (even with lower interest rates), while watching the market price of your new purchase slipping downwards. Ideally, one would be in a cash position -- meaning term deposits that are immune to fluctuations in the market, susceptible to inflation only. Devaluation of the Cdn$ won't hurt if you've earmarked your $$ to purchase real estate in Canada. I'm in this position in Vancouver and won't buy until after the end of the 2010 Olympics when a projected exodus of 40K workers from the city will link in with continued weakness in the national and BC economy.

 

Paul,

Thanks for your reply. Our timeline was to move up in two years. Hopefully the market will have bottomed by then and interest rates will still be low. I'd love to lock in a competitive rate as, I feel, they will go up once the governments realize they need more money for all the bailouts.

Can you please explain? I thought low interest rates were all that mattered.

We set up an aggressive mortgage so, when we sell, we should be somewhat in a cash position as we will owe little on the house we sell. Of course, this will depend on how well it sells. We will be staying in the GTA so currency is not an issue.

So you agree with Jason that upgrading is not a bad idea in the near future, specifically within the next two years?

 

Absolutely now is the time
By the time you look, put an offer, and sell it will take a year anyhow
2 years may be a bit long to wait
I would say now to 1 or 1.5 max
Hyperinflation may come in 2-4 years if there is a bounce
= 15% interest rates again

 

I just heard that in Zimbabwe they now have "Sextillion Dollar Bills"

WTF is a sextillion?

I guess "sextillion" means you're f#$@d....

 

I'd say plenty of both is the Queen Mother!

 

+1

 

My thoughts exactly. We've already started looking at neighbourhoods with good schools. Lorne Park is a standout but, egad, it's in the 905! Hmm... Maybe I'll save a little more with that &^%#@ land transfer tax.

 

Good luck you will find a deal

Also IMHO don't look so much based on schools
Move to a nice neighbourhood for you and your family to have fun at home, going to restaurants, hanging out with neighbours, short comute to work, etc
because you can always bus the kids to a private school
But you can't bus in the good living