Scenario (assumptions): It is 2012, the 2009 idea of budget caps was trashed. All the teams from 2009 return in 2010, no new teams appear. The Mercedes board votes to leave F1 (remember their 2009 vote was only one away from leaving F1) effective 2014 . Renault has been mid pack since 2009, Alonso leaves and goes to Ferrari, so the Renault board votes to stop participation in F1 in 2013. Ferrari, Toyota, and McLaren continue to spend more money each year, potentially over $500 mill USD annually. Frank Williams decides that due to health reasons to sell his team, but his operating expenses to run midpack are not attractive to anyone. Team will be shut down in 2013. International sales of Red Bull are down, so corporate decides to trim down its race operation, dumps NASCAR and decides to only have one team in F1 in 2014. All of the above are viable possibilities, but the purpose of this excercise is not to debate these possibilities, but to assume they will happen. So based on these assumptions: 1) How does F1 attract new teams to fill the gaps on the grid in order to stay alive?
*sigh*. Very impressive to win a WCC with only 3 teams in total competing. Why don't you go and watch A1? Ferrari cars and guaranteed world champs!
Ron, I think a lot of this has to do with Control by both the FIA regarding Technical Regulations and the control of money by FOM. I think if the FIA was not so heavy handed and gradually begun the process of Caps so the existing Teams had time in order to par staff, and be ready to move into a more economic situation than immediately in one year it would make a big difference. At the same time, the FIA causes the Teams to spend more money as they did when they moved from V10's to V8's as well as implementation of KERS. Here is my suggestions for whatever it is worth. 1) 2010 Come up with a Budget Cap that is more realistic than $40M Euros say $100M and each year go down say $10M Euros for the next 4 years. 2) FOM start sharing more of the TV Revenue with the teams thereby making it commercially more viable for Future Teams to enter F1. 3) Have more transparency in regards to Technical Regulations instead of implemanting them immediately and doing foolish things like the Olympic Medals scenario or who has the most wins, wins. Just a few thoughts.
Good points. With points 2 and 3 there wouldn´t be the need of a tight budget cap. I think that with those continous silly rule changes nobody would trust FIA now, even if they were right.
Tony, I think you hit on something. $40 mill euros was brought forward by FOTA in response to the FIA's $30. I think your $100mE the first year is reasonable, but I think it ultimately needs to go down to that $40 mill Euro number or its inflation adjusted equivilent in less than four years. The problem with the $100 million is that probably half the F1 grid is already close to, at, or under that number. It gets skewed by Ferrari and Toyota, possibly BMW. So those first two teams will complain that it is too hard for them to go to $100 mill euros in 7 months. My personal response is and will continue to be, what is best for the sport is the way to go, not what is best for one or two teams, Ferrari included. Yet I think it necessary for a comfortable budget cap to be in place in 2, no more than 3 years. The scenarios I used in this thread are very possible, some very likely, so it is important for the door to open for new teams. Most every team was new at one time, so I do not understand the put downs. I also do not mind the personal insults, so I will say I do think Mosley is 100% correct about the need for budget caps. BMW agrees, and I understand that Renault and Red Bull agree with caps, not the original implementation adn governance. McLaren probably would also agree. We know Brawn et all will agree. I also believe that the FIA knows going to $40 millE iin the next 7 months is not realistic, but knowing the egos on the other side, I can see this also as a bargaining point. Just like that stupid two tier system. In any negotiation involving large egos, you always start with really unrealistic proposals, then you agree to what you really wanted all along. NOne of the players are stupid. You are absolutely correct in your points #2 and #3. Despite all the talk of wealth, I really do not know how flexible Ecclestone is financially. He may have given away a lot of the TV revenue to his ex wife, so there may not be as much as available for the teams as one would think.
In this case you have rectal cancer, Bernie and Max, and also lung cancer, Luca. Best to cut them all out.
Bernie and his investors will cough up a bigger percentage if they think that their cut will increase in total dollars. A glorified GP2 won't bring in the money.
What about the cancers of Renault, Toyota, etc., all the teams that agree with Ferrari? This patient is dying.....I can't disagree with any team pulling out of F1 when the FIA wants to bastardize it. Let's face it from the purely mechanical aspect of engines/trannies the current rules have killed innovation. It started with mandatory V8 configuration, low rev limits and standard ECUs. Its all about the aeros and double diffusers now. No more refueling next year. Will the drivers have to wear the same nomex underwear for an entire weekend to save $? Next the teams will be required to give seat time to a driver from a developing country so it can "open new markets" for the show. Boys and girls we probably lived thru the Golden Age of F1 and I am now realizing it....my 2 cents....
Tony, your thoughts are spot on. A reasonable approach rather than the "Chicken Little - sky is falling" mentality.
F1 as we knew is already dead. It has become a TV series, Desperate Drivers, with exotic locales and fixed races in that the powers that be continue to manipulate the rules until they get the results they want. The idea of a hero driver aspiring to greatness for love of country and glory is a distant memory. The drivers are mercenaries, the team owners are shills for huge corporate brands and the idea that the fans have someone to invest their hopes and dreams in disappeared a long time ago. Despite their inefficient start this year Ferrari remain the most consistent icon in F1. They are still the only team to construct everything meaningful in-house (Chassis, engine, transmission) but even they are not in it for glory, but for commerce. I guess in life, change is the only constant......
May be a bit off topic, but this is an idea that is making a lot of sense to me. I would have only one rule in F1: limit fuel consumption to a predetermined amount for any given race (i.e. any race would get its own amount). The fuel could be of any kind of liquid fuel that is commercially available today. The teams can have any engine of any kind (petrol, diesel, turbo, aspirated, of any configuration and number of cylinders and displacement) as long as they finish the race with the amount allowed for that race. The idea is how to go fastest by using the smallest amount of fuel, by using the work bench of the F1 teams considerable research funds and brain power to come up with novel engineering ideas, unrestricted by silly rules. If the best formula to win a race would turn out to be, for the sake of argument, a car using a quad 4 engine burrning lpg, so be it. Why should an engine manufacturer be restricted in its abilities and inventiveness by rules imposing the number of cylinders, the V angle among them and how they are fed. After all, the purpose of racing should be some kind of accelerated evolution: find what works best and eventually have it trickle down to production vehicles.