Where do we go from here?

What do you expect a 2009 F430 to be going for in around 7-10 years?

 

lol!

 

Actually, that's a really fine answer.

History shows that almost all cars go downward over a 20 to 30 year period. Those that survive usually begin a rebirth in interest IF they are viewed as interesting or iconic.

But, look at it this way. The F430 of today will some day be someone else's "starter" Ferrari. I think that's a good thing.

 

Is the F430 iconic?

 

Too early to tell but I would say "no". Why? It's built in too many numbers and is not a clean sheet design from the 360. Also, you don't identify it with anything special (like Magnum with the 308 or the Testarossa with Miami Vice). It's not a pop culture icon in itself.

It's a great car and people love it-- but it's not iconic. It's sandwiched between the 360 and 458.

The only thing that could change this is some radical governmental action that completely radicalizes (in a bad way) the F430 from future cars. For example, 8 cylinder cars or cars of a specific horsepower rating may be outlawed. It's one of the things that killed the muscle car era, which made them "iconic". Muscle cars became extinct almost overnight.

But, I view something like that as unlikely in the next 7 years.

 

Yup, what he said. I also think it will be an expensive car to operate in its old age and that never helps.

 

So will the 355, the 360, and the 458. I don't think the 430 is unique in that regard.

They will ALL be expensive in their old age.

I wouldn't consider an old age TR as cheap to maintain yet people still use them and love them.

 

Speculation: Between $75-$110k with 15-35k miles but a lot could change that number. I don't know if you're thinking about his in terms of an investment, but IMO, cars in general (and higher production Ferrari's) are bad investments. Buy it, drive it, wash it, wax it, talk about it, enjoy it. I think that in 30-40 years, if you pull the cover off of an 2009 F430, people will surely find it interesting. Maybe not exotic enough to have it guarded or to be transported under the cover of darkness to a restoration shop. If you were to pull the cover off of a 1969 Corvette with a 427 engine in good condition (same reaction) with more time elapsed. Why do you ask about the 7-10 year price range? Curious.

 

The 430 will be much worse than prior cars. TR, 355, and 360 will be quite owner friendly by comparison. The ability to support them when old will be dramatically different.

 

I assume the biggest issue could be electrical systems and the huge part they play in the dynamics of the car. At least there are no cambelts.....

 

What about the 430 do you feel will make it difficult to maintain? Just curious.

 

I'm assuming (always dangerous!), this is at least in part due to the 360 being the last of the SD2 cars? - It seems the SD2 is widely available, and works well. The 430 needs the SD3 (?) and they seem to be "problematic"..... Yet newer cars need to be "online" it seems, only via a dealer (?) - And we know the dealer techs have no "history" with older cars - Could be a nightmare?......

Cheers,
Ian

 

They have finally crossed the treshold technologically where it takes a great deal of support and equipment that has no generic substitute to keep the cars running. Ferrari has worked very hard to achieve that by the way. It will require a very active involvement with Ferrari and the dealers to keep them running. Historically the factory and the dealer network at large has not done that well. That will not change. Not to mention that when there is that degree of dependence there will be no doubt in your dealings with them that they are quite aware they have a monoply.

 

The answer depends on whether we go through a period of hyperinflation.

 

probably it will be worth about 10 million dollars with inflation figured in.

 

If you don't mind. What specifically are you referring to. What, for example ties a 430 to Ferrari that doesn't tie a 360 to Ferrari.


Regards,


Stew

 

I suspect that will change in time. Where there are bucks to be made, someone will come up with a solution. You have to admit that so far 430's are more robust than anything else since 328's and the cheapest to maintain also. Maybe it's just wishful thinking.

Dave

 

I *believe*, but could certainly be wrong, that the 430 is the "last" of the "independently" serviceable cars - But, again, IIRC, it needs the SD3, and that's been discontiuned and as someone noted recently, good luck unlocking one (many of 'em "timeout" and turn into doorstops apparently.)

360's and earlier can all be serviced with the SD2, which seems to have a "better" reputation.

Newer cars *must* be serviced online to the factory (?), and despite restricting access to this diagnostc info being illegal, that's what they're (the factory) doing here in the US - Apparently, this "restriction on free trade" was challenged in Europe, and they were forced to make SD's available to indy's there. [And, as Bran noted recently, many of those Euro SD's found there way here, sometimes at outrageous prices......]

Whether the same "force" can be applied to online service is, I guess, an open question...., but I'm pretty sure Brian said recently that the 430 was the latest car he "could" service.....(?)

Not too much of an issue right now, but what happens when the, eg, 458, is 8-10 years old? - The dealer techs (typically?) are only up to date on the current cars and look aghast at anything that old.......

I think? [And as always, "IMHO"]

Cheers,
Ian

 

It has nothing to do with the quality of the car. Coming from the heart of Silicon Valley that has been discussed a great deal since the mid 90's and every time it is the same story. We have repeatedly provided equipment for analysis and explained the requirements and in every case the answer remains the same, the start up costs are far too great, not even close to realistic to get anyone interested when a real estimate is made of the possible market.

Examination of the market after examination of the market has invariably come to the same conclusion.....there is no money to be made.

 

A 360 is a Model T in comparison and is well supported by existing equipment.

 

Brian - I know your "current" feelings on the ST05, but am starting to suspect that may be the only option down the road - Nick appears to be making some fairly serious claims about the latest version:

http://ferrarichat.com/forum/showpost.php?p=139133057&postcount=4

Maybe he'd loan you a unit to test in return for a "review" - If you like it, I'm sure he'll sell lots of 'em..... [Although, $8K with only 360 S/W still seems damn expensive to me!...]

Cheers,
Ian

 

Wow,

is the 360 really THAT different from the f430?

 

I *think*, but please correct me if I'm wrong [it's been known ], Brain is referring more to the 430's "diagnostic needs" than the onboard electronics per-se......

 

You can get a 15,000 mile F430 for $140K from a main dealer today... and the car is 4 years old.

In comparison, a 10-yr old F355 F1 coupe with decent mileage can be found for about $50,000.

So it looks like the F430 has about 60% of its original value after 4 years, the F355 F1 has about 25% of its original value after 10 years.

Considering the much improved quality, durability and reliability (and lower service costs) of the F430 compared to the F355, perhaps we can expect the F430 to hold on to about 35% of its new value after 10 years. This would roughly equate to an F430 coupe in top condition with decent mileage being worth about $85,000 after 10 years.

Obviously, given the vast numbers built, a 10-year old sub-par F430 (high mileage, untidy bodywork, patchy history) will probably slip into the $60K range before it will find a buyer.

Just my 0.02