430 (and 360) value when 458 hits the roads? up or down?

I think your're right. This economy isn't stabilizing any time soon ... especially in terms of job growth/security that fosters the purchase of such big ticket items.

 

The sales patterns of outgoing models is pretty predictable based on F history. IIRC there is a bump just before and when the new harder to get model is introduced, then they start dropping again and finally stabilizing somewhat. Probably not very exaggerated in a stinko economy.

 

NO! when the 458 arrives 360 and 430 will go down.

 

Values will go down.

Buyers like to buy non-"classic," commodity cars as close to the latest and greatest as possible. The 458's presence further removes the 360 and 430 from Ferrari's state of the art, lowering the demand curve. The lack of initial availability of the Italia (as well as its high pricing) will do nothing to slow depreciation of the previous cars as the simple fact of the 458's existence serves to devalue the models immediately before it.

The only way the 360 and 430 see a bump is if the market sees the 458 Italia as a step backwards.

 

Personally I think that the introduction of the 458 will affect the 430's value much more than the 360. The buyer of a 458 is not a buyer of a 360, so you are not taking from that pool of customers. You are affecting the person who is willing to spend 200k on a 2008 F430 and now wants the latest and greatest and will opt for the 458.

Of course the reduction in 430's value will affect the 360, but again the 360 has become a much more obtainable car (sub 100k) for many, that previously it was not, they will continue to reach a larger pool of potential buyers, stabilizing its value...

 

Scud will keep his value better than a 430 but will be afected too,nothing new this happends with all brands everytime the next model comes out.

 

Maybe the value in the States will not be affected THAT much however in the third world countries im pretty sure the values will go down and the demand will definitely be on the 458 only!

 

The Used 360 market was very different. It held its value much better because :

- It was first V8 Mid Engined Ferrari to be really usable by everyone (bigger pool of buyer)
- The economy was hot
- There was no real competition (No Gallardo, No Audi R8..)

Everything is different now and the F430 really isnt a rare thing. It is going down and will continue to go down.

 

The pattern more or less over the last 20 years is for late model Ferraris to depreciate until they are roughly 10 years old. 360's were introduced just over 10 years ago and are getting close IMO and the 458 coming has little or nothing to do with their prices anymore. 430's are still on the curve of course. I don't see a bump, but if 458 prices are as high as speculated, the effect on 430's will not be that great. Not that many owners will be willing to trade their 430 plus another 150K or so for a 458. It was one thing in the past when owners could get close to what they paid for the previous model. This is a brave new world. Speaking as a 430 owner myself, I don't see the value of trading up. I know other owners who are of the same mindset. Others plan to enjoy their 430's until the 458 update arrives. I think it will be especially difficult to get over list for a 458 compared to years past, especially after the first few months.

Dave

 

(impatiently) waiting for the price of the F430 to go down...

 

My thinking is that the 458 will not affect the 360 at all and the only F430s that will be affected are the '08 and later cars. The price of the 458 with a few options will be way over $250,000 so this cannot influence the market of sub $100k dollar cars and the F430s that are in below $130k will be good buys and mostly miles will affect their resale value. Some 360 sellers aren't going to trade up to a F430 or Stradale and many are leaving the Ferrari marque for a while and others for good. The lucky few F430 owners that will trade up aren't hurting economically so they wont fire sale, they will sell at what the markets dictate and some will even trade their cars in.

360 and F430 market are in a totally different scale when comparing it to the 458. Maybe the 458 will bring the prices down, but not in the first two years and if it does then it will only hurt the late garage queens F430s. Also the 458 will depreciate at a faster rate than previous Ferraris when the economy wasn't so bad, the 458 will drop in value faster than our 360s and F430s did, the majority of those already took the big hit.

I sometimes think that 458s will drop $100k in value after only two years, I could be wrong, but with this economy I don't think so.

 

+1

Happens every time. And every time, there's a thread on FChat about the out-going model's imminent decline, only to have a 'bump' occur.

This coming from a) someone who's seen it happen to the F355 and 360 b) someone who doesn't own an F430 and c) someone that would like to purchase an F430 this spring

edit - both the 360 and F430 were introduced in very different economic conditions than what we're seeing today, so that will play a role... no one can predict what will happen for sure, just what we've seen in the past.

 

That's a given certainty.

 

I agree, keep in mind that the 355 did jump up when the 360 first came out, but those were different times and there were no when near as many 335's as there are 360's and 430's, and there are a lot of them for sale.

 

exactly. this isn't rocket science. older models will go down, and hard.

 

There is no argument - cars depreciate. However, the 458 will not have a huge effect on the values of either 360's or 430's as Ferrari will not flood the U.S. market with the 458, so they will be difficult to get for at least the first year of availability. Also, remember that the 458 will not be available as a spider for what at least a year from when the coupe will be availiable. A Ferrari buyer looking for a spider will only have 2 options, forgetting the 360 for the moment if looking for a newer car - the 430 or the California.

 

My Rossa Corsa 07 F430 w 1600 miles is now a 140K car if you really want to sell it. The new 458 will be 250 or so. They are not expecting them here till next summer. I doubt our 430's will take a huge hit. My guess is they will depreciate 10 to 15 percent per year like a normal used car. A lot more people can do a 100 to 140 car than can do a 250 plus car. Personally I doubt the 458 will be worth 100k plus to me. I can do it easily but probably will not.

 

My guess is that dealerships will be taking in trades and most of the trades will probably be 430's. The more 458's delivered, the more 430's to saturate an already saturated market. This will force the dealers to only offer wholesale trade in values and send most trades to auctions. This cycle can only be broken if there are more 430 buyers than 458's. Its impossible until the 430 hits a level of value that more people are willing to spend. I dont see it.

 

+1

 

Everyone keeps saying there are more 430s than 360s. Maybe worldwide, but remember that in 07 the US allocation was reduced by about 40% or so, so indeed there are more 360s in the US than 430s. Those of us that have 3 pedals are pretty rare, only 5% or so were manual. I think that there will be a reduction, but the manual cars will keep their value better than the F1s because a lot of people don't want automatics in their sports cars.

Art

 

I think newer models are the ones going down, early F430 will not be as affected. In fact a new 458 will depreciate faster and harder than a '05 or '06 F430 coupe that's selling today between $120k to $130k.

 

+1

 

Nope: the only way that 360 and 430 prices see a bump is if the 458 has long waiting lists and the only way to get on the list is buy a used car from a dealer for at least a year.

The question as to whether the 458 has a long waiting list depends on the economy AND the allocation that Ferrari gives to the US.

My thinking is... it's going to be really, really tight. A lot of 458's are going to go to countries outside the US. It's going to be hard to get one which means that used cars will be the best shot for people to buy a Ferrari in the next few years.

People forget: Ferrari holds the key by being able to limit supply AND dealers make money on used car sales, especially when supply is low. They will have NO PROBLEM in selling this car in other countries for several years. The old idea that Ferrari must sell most of it's cars in the US to reach profitability is long gone. The 80's and 90's are history and they ain't coming back.

So, the answer to the question is: IF the economy turns around AND allocation to the US is tight, 430 prices will hold level or even creep up a bit as the 458 is hard to get and really expensive. Let's face it, the 430 is a pretty darn good car.

 

I doubt that. Superior options, upon entrance into the marketplace, tend to devalue inferior ones. Suddenly, models that were perfectly satisfactory when they were top dog seem to develop a million and one deficiencies in the eyes of the market overnight. The cars instantly become "dated." Even values of early model years will take their hit as the 3-5 year old cars no longer look like the new cars rolling off of the line today. There is a real "yesterday's news" factor to the shift in demand upon release of the new model.