355 Pricing Analysis

Hey all,

Last year for my senior Economics project at Emory University, I used regression analysis to determine causal factors for pricing of 360s and F430s. By isolating the variables most important to price - mileage, age, Spider vs. coupe, color, options - I was able to produce a formula for determining pricing of these cars. After a huge amount of positive feedback on my 360 pricing analysis here and elsewhere, I decided to do an updated 360 pricing analysis, which I posted yesterday, and also a 355 pricing analysis, which is posted here.

I looked at 67 different F355s and isolated what I felt would be the most important variables: age, mileage, transmission, bodystyle (Spider/GTS/Berlinetta), color (Rosso Corsa vs. non-Rosso Corsa), and Scuderia shields, which seem to have a weirdly high effect on 360 prices. From this, I was able to compute a formula to calculate the value of your car. Though I would've liked a bigger data sample, 67 cars isn't bad, and it's all that was on AutoTrader, so it's all I had to work with. Note that this formula is ONLY good for asking prices, which can often be very different from selling prices.

Number of vehicles: 67
Average price: $63,617
Average mileage: 22,084

Formula:
- start at $68,246.
- subtract:
--------- $2,739.70 for a 1999.
--------- $3,013.67 for a 1998.
--------- $3,287.64 for a 1997.
--------- $3,561.61 for a 1996.
--------- $3,835.58 for a 1995.
- subtract $0.39 per mile.
- add $3,565.03 for an F1 transmission.
- add $3,226.70 for a Spider.
- add $7,683.91 for a GTS.
- add $3,642.68 for Rosso Corsa.
- add $5,089.89 if the car's at a factory dealer.
- add $3,156.91 for Scuderia shields. (!?!?)

Once again, shields hold a surprising premium. F1 holds a surprising premium over manual, while in 360s, F1 is a negative hit on value. It makes sense, though, as F1 is much rarer in the 355 (see charts below). Perhaps the oddest thing to me about this formula is how little the age of the car actually matters - there's only about a $300 per year difference. Clearly, 355s are getting to the point where age matters less than condition, mileage, and other factors, as even the newest 355 is more than a decade old.

As with the 360s, I'm including the three cars that are "best buys" and the three cars whose sellers are dreaming with far-off prices, as well as the percentage difference from where the formula says the cars should be priced:

Best buys:
1. 1995 Ferrari F355 Berlinetta - $39,995 (-22.33%)
2. 1995 Ferrari F355 Berlinetta - $44,798 (-21.22%) (no longer on AutoTrader - probably sold!)
3. 1999 Ferrari 355F1 Spider - $54,900 (-21.19%)

Sale-proof prices:
1. 1995 Ferrari F355 Spider - $79,995 (+38.34%)
2. 1998 Ferrari F355 Berlinetta - $69,990 (+19.12%)
3. 1997 Ferrari F355 Spider - $72,999 (+16.75%)

Of course, aside from the restriction that this formula only accounts for selling prices, its other restriction is that it cannot account for vehicles that have had recent majors, since one can't quickly or easily tell that by browsing AutoTrader listings. However, it can be taken as a pretty good pricing guide.

I've included some graphs to display some distributions of data and other interesting things. I will next be doing this analysis on the 430, but will probably be unable to do the 348 as there aren't enough data points with just 35 cars on AutoTrader at the moment. Feel free to respond here or privately with comments!
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i would love to see something like that for the 348

 

Interesting post!

I think I would have a hard time getting 80k for my car though.

(99 GTS,22k,rosso corsa,shields)

 

Feels about right for my 95 GTS (red, shields, manual, 37k miles)...rough math in my head comes out to $61k or so. Yeah, I think I could sell it for that probably (ok...maybe).

 

Doug:

Thanks so much for taking the time and effort to perform this analysis and post the results. It's nice to see a quantitative, rather than qualitative, approach.

 

Doug - you may want to also factor in a few more critical parameters for the 355:
a) major service (yes / no) - assuming that a typical major costs $8,000 and is valid for 5 years - equals $1600 deduction for each year in the past that the major was due. E.g. if the major was done 2 years back - give a $3200 deduction

b) Headers re-built / new: +$3000 / 4000

c) hyperflows/ exhaust: +1000/1500

I think we can debate the +/- amounts but these factors would be far more influential than challenge grills

 

and I think we all agree that asking prices (in this economy) are far higher than actual selling prices (in this economy)

 

Very interesting analysis ! Well done ...

 

355's in australia range from 150k to 230k

 

Thanks Doug. You are an asset.

I do feel, especially with the 355, service and know "issues" that have been addressed make a signifigant impact on the "value" (perhaps not price), of these cars.

 

Very interesting, but I think that the data is no longer exactly applicable, now that we have nearly 10% unemployment, and lots of tapped out folks out there, tons of foreclosures, and that is just one year after you completed your analysis. A lot has changed in the past year, and not necessarily for the better, particularly for sellers of exotic automobiles....

 

ditto

 

good points

 

Great job!!

 

great thread and great work. I remember doing my Stats II project recently. I think chose Jville, MIA, WPBCH real estate.

 

Sorry to give you that impression - though I originally did the assignment a year ago, this pricing information is up-to-date using cars currently on AutoTrader as of Monday. Basically I decided to do it again due to all the feedback I continually receive regarding the original 360 thread.

Thanks all for the kind words - I'm glad this can be of help to some!

 

Pretty cool and thanks for doing it. MY car came out to $61,930....pretty close to what I would say it's worth although I agree there should be a factor for the belt service since it is a significant expense.

 

+1 - late '98 cars had valve guides fixed from factory, easily worth $2k on asking price (note I'm biased with a '99). Headers are also sure to go, and worth more if fixed. And could throw in a few hundred for sticky interiors fixed...

 

We should find a way to ADD actual selling price to this study. My guess is the selling prices are FAR below what this study indicates. It reminds me of a famous saying "in life there are truth, lie, and statistics."

 

Sorry...Didn't realize exactly how current your research actually was. Great job.

 

Thanks again for all the kind words, all. Glad to help out a bit

I agree. Trust me - if I knew of a place to find actual selling prices, I'd do it in a heartbeat. Unfortunately that data just isn't available. If only I could get on a national DMV computer..... now I'm starting to sound like Carbon!

 

I know how difficult it is, but you will find that values are ... $20,000 lower.

 

I was talking to a pro buyer from one of the sponsors about getting a late model 98-99 car coupe with under 10K miles all sorted with recent major he mkt was 58K ish for that car to me.

I think it is high also.

 

Great thread.

This post is spot on too!

 

Great work!
Dont bother doing the 348's, There all worth One Miiiiiiiiiiiiiiiillllllllllllion Dollars


Cheers!