In the meantime, we have the longest 12 days of our lives to wait for the first race. It's going to be a different year. A team may qualy very well but if they are bad on tires, they will be passed quickly. RB and Ferrari appear to be great on tires and we are not 100% sure what MB can do with tires. They certainly looked better as of Thursday testing when they ran heavy loads with their new exhaust package. Everyone is holding off on being too confident as they literally have no idea what is going to happen. I guarantee the 12 days we are feeling is absolutely nothing compared to what they must be going through. I'd crack
+1. Too bad there isnt 1 more short test or something to break the tension!!! I posted some time ago that tires could be the big unknown this year. For the first 3 or so races it will be interesting to see how strategy evolves and how the cars and drivers adjust to the new tires. I can't wait for Australia!!!
What worries me for this year is the new Pirelli tyres which are apparently not up to scratch since they don't last long. Drivers talk of 3 pit stops, and it seems that race tactics and pit strategy will determine the winners. That doesn't mean that the fastest or the best drivers will be at the front; the harder you try, the more you stop, etc... Gaining tenths on the tracks may equate to another pit stop 10 laps ahead, etc....
The smart money would go on drivers who can look after there tyres then. Hate to tell you this, but Button aint too bad in that department.. but you knew that.. Anyway not to long till we find out.. BTW I think Pirelli has done this for a reason.
Button gaining an advantage was exactly my first thoughts when i heard about the high degrading Pirelli tyres. But in a recent Autosport there was an article that talks in-depth about the new Pirelli's, and supposedly due to them having very different characteristics to the Bridgestones, especially in there compound and construction, a smooth under-steering balanced style may not be of any benefit. The Bridgestones degraded mostly due to heat build-up, so tyre preservation was about not getting them too hot, and not overstressing them. But so far heat degradation does not look like it's going to be the issue with the Pirellis - far from it. Their stiff construction and soft compounds means very little movement in the carcass, with the thread running cooler then ideal, and simply stripping its self away from the tyre, especially when temperatures are low (like we saw at cool pre-season Spanish tests. Highlighted by the high amount of off-line marbling). The suggests that its more likely that it will be the drivers who can easily and quickly adapt to various driving styles depending on the current state of their constantly evolving tyres, and those who are most comfortable with over-steer will be benefiting from the Pirelli's most, due too the high rates of rear tyre wear. As we have often seen, Button can struggle when his car is not perfectly balanced to his liking, and he sets up his car with strong understeer (Rosberg and Schumi both complained this year about their understeering Merc chassis, which was designed to suit Buttons driving style), so it will be interesting to see if Button can make these new tyres work to his strengths. To be honest, i don't think anyone really knows how these new tyres are going to work out when it comes to racing in anger on hot tracks. Autosport is also often very wrong with its predictions, and in fact highlights various opposing scenarios ( covering its back i expect). But with Hamilton and Button having almost completely opposite driving styles, but driving in the car, i think they will give a very good reference point of which basic styles (smooth understeer or aggressive oversteer) the new Pirelli's are benefiting most.
Of the top drivers, Hamilton will probably struggle the most as his style seems to be the most aggressive. He has commented that a car set up toward a more oversteer bias is even worse on rear tires than an understeer bias on front tires. He may have a long year. It remains to be seen if red Bull can defend their championship but they obviously look strong in testing with runs of a good number of laps and competitive times. It remains to be seen if Webber or Vettel can conserve tires and be in the heat of battle. Last year it seemed like they often were several seconds ahead and just cruising. It seems it would be easier to conserve in that situation rather than trying to overtake or prevent a pass which may happen more this year and leads to... Alonso, Rosberg, Massa, and Schumacher. Alonso can be very gentle on tires if he needs to be, or the fastest driver in the field as well. Very flexible and adaptable. Rosberg appears fairly easy on tires as well with a smooth style, he certainly got the better of his teammate last year. Massa is more aggressive but driving for his career might give him extra motivation to take risks and possibly win a race or two. MS and M-B is the wild card, if Braun and Schumacher have figured out a way to help the tires last even for a few extra laps they could turn a 3 stopper into a 2, a massive advantage that could see him winning races again and having the competition who are 15 year his junior and in faster cars scratching their heads how he did it.
I'm all for the tyres not to be that durable. It has to wear off faster. That really will make the drivers either push like hell and go for 3-4 pitstops during the race, or be more conservative and drive slower. Either way, at least there's going to be more excitement during the races, not the regular parade we get.
The concensus is that the tires will be the biggest factor, atleast the first half of the season, so I guess we will see old JB battling the master MS - EPIC!!!!
Not me - my biggest concern in advance of this season is the tires, and the possibility of excessive marbling. Too much marbles totally ruins the racing - think back to Montreal 2006 for example, the last year of the tire wars, when moving 6" off line was like driving on ice. Villeneuve crashed his BMW trying to pass a back marker, it was completely impossible to drive on the marbles! I liked the more durable Bridgestones of the last 2 years for this reason, and I am nearly alone in liking the 2005 season for this reason - the tires had to last, so they couldn't marble off all the rubber, and the drivers had to manage the degradation if they wanted more grip at the end of the race. It highlighted a driver skill that the 2 or 3 pitstop races never did, but also with few marbles allowed some overtaking to happen that never will when the track is covered in marbles off the racing line.
This is my biggest fear, if there is only one drivable line then the parade will only be worse than before. It does seem like this year will show which drivers can adapt to different styles best, so really the best all round driver. Since Sebastien Loeb is retiring from WRC after this year I want to see RB drop Webber and pick up Loeb, he would probably dust a lot of these guys since he can adapt better than any driver before (in WRC at least, which is really saying a lot)
I know, but touch wood, so far none of those marbles showed up excessively during testing. I think less durable is better for us the fans. More pitstops, more action on and off the track.
I'm not sure about no marbles during testing - I recall reading a report or two that they had to sweep the track between morning and afternoon test sessions because the marbles were so bad. I really do hope you're right - if the tires don't marble badly, then they will provide excellent action as they degrade. I hope it isn't just strategic action (timing of pit stops, no passing while drivers wait until their stops or opponents' stops), but that it results in actual overtaking on the track too.
He is certainly strategic. With all the testing, tweaking, walking around tracks, studying, and physical conditioning he appears to be the zenmaster given a proper instrument. Very German! Regarding tires, isn't this a similar condition to the Goodyear tires of the 80s and 90s? They had a few decent laps and then started to fall apart....quick.
The tyres have been deliberately designed not to last long. This was the design mandate that Pireli had to fulfil, thus leading to more pit stops.
And more passing. Heaven forbid we modify the Tilke Dromes for something so basic as passing in a race.
