US GP in Austin Discussion and Speculation...

Bernie has been paid for this year. The ball is back in COTA's court. Nobody knows if there is a rabbit under this hat or not, but based on performance to date, it's a mouse. FWIW, I have done 1/2 billion dollar projects where 5 consecutive equity partners we approached said we couldn't pull it off, and the 6th joined us and we executed as planned. Only the COTA insiders know for sure, and my tea leaves say that if everything was really in place to make this happen for 2012, short of an act of God, they would open the kimona for all to see.

So it is my opinion that they will be a go for 2013 after additional drama to come.

 

+1 way over due. Why the lack of data or presentation. They want public funding? Time to go public.

 

Nowhere on this planet will you get public funding for a F1 race. At least not in democratic countries.

 

here it is again: http://www.gahcc.org/fileadmin/files/BP_70_-_Final.pdf
They could always shoot for a September completion instead of July

Cheaper to build one sized right now? Future hotel?

only the 12k seat main one

True, but they didn't publicly mention they were in default with the Bernie's contracts either. That came up, and they resolved it. Increases their credibility in my book.

Tavo missed his payments. I think this whole mess got started when the payout from the METF got delayed until November. Tavo failed in securing local contributions for the METF as well. I'm guessing that's why he's no longer with the project.

Also telling, is the fact that Red McCombs spoke in the press release about reaching an agreement with Bernie. I'm going to guess he was the one paying the tab on that one. He's been very low key throughout this process after the initial announcement of his participation.

Again, they were never planning on finishing right before the 3 month inspection window, there always was a healthy buffer. Three or so weeks more delay isn't a death blow to the project

 

Ok, so like I said - there is construction of concrete grandstands in that project plan... so there goes the theory of temporary stands

Also, according to that project plan, they are supposed to have most of the grandstand built, most all the steel columns in place, and have started construction of the roof structures in the first week of October.

Starting January 1st, they are supposed to start the interior roughing in and installing the decking.

There are also quite a few other structures that were supposed to be finished by now, including

-Media center
-Medical center
-Team buildings
-Permanent concessions structures

... in addition to the main grandstand.

They were supposed to start construction of those buildings between June and July of 2011. As I understand, none of that has happened.

So would you agree they are a good 5-6 months behind their updated project plan? It's pretty black and white, no? And if you would agree with that then I don't see how shooting for a September finish date vs. a July finish date makes everything OK? They are still months behind.

That doesn't address the issue. If they are strapped for cash (as the founders have stated publicly), then why would they be spending a lot more on electrical infrastructure now for future expansion? It makes no sense. If you are tight on finances and time, you don't expand the scope of a project so it takes more time and money.

In other words "yes, there are permanent concrete grandstand structures" - meaning the claims made that they can just wheel in temporary stands are untrue

So lying to the press and public until the lie is exposed, and then resolving it increases one's crebility? Oooookay

Tavo just had the contract, COTA had the means to implement the contract. Any payments were not Tavo's to make, they were COTA's. COTA missed the payments.

So after seeing the project plan you posted, you feel they have plenty of time to spare and losing a few weeks was not hurtful to the viability of the project?

Seriously?

 

A mixture of both, I'd imagine.

We'll have to wait and see.

Or they will just stop working and go home.

Sometimes in Texas, they do that..........

 

Where's the "truck based systems" in all this??

I agree there seens to both permananet and temporary as the design stands now.

I have never had a review of ANY of the Austin plans at all Mike, my comments here were always based upon experience in "similar" installations, "best methods" not this one specifically.

You seem to be making this some sort of personal challenge to "prove me wrong" on things that are conjecture by all of us.

 

I personally have performed Joint Ventures with them well over the $15M level (University of Texas facilities)

They were not interested in this project, nor was my current firm.
It really has little to do with the viability of the design.

It was a business decision....risk/reward.

Which I DO agree with you seems a little 'thin on the ground" in dealing with F1.
Tony George's sisters thought so, too!

 

No, I am SO 'done" here......SRT MIke "knows all", I expect him to take Tavio's place in the next televised News Conference, he's obviously the ONLY way out of this, for all those poor outgunned Texans.

I appreciate the support though!! LOL!

As others have confirmed, even Indy F1 use grandstand systems I am describing here.

 

Mike,

Seriously here is a "Rule of Thumb"...electical costs 'normally" runs about 10% of a project's total value, from Office Buildings to Hospitals, obviously design and density of use does apply.

So from your variable numbers (depending on your post) of $300M to $400M "Total Track cost"....$17M is far below the "10%" value, barely half.

That's due to the light electrical "density" of the development.
That's what I was trying to express all along.

They could certainly run it up depending on the chandelier in Bernie's suite, we have seen Tamara's bath tub after all.....

 

Still very obsolete when I found it. I'd like to get a newer one, but all of it has been bid out, so I doubt another one will pop up on the internet.

Is it SOP for bankrupt construction projects to contiue seeking bids for work? to keep up apperances?

As Tavo said, right after he was no longer associated with the project.

Not untrue. always said there was going to be a permanent main one. 12,000 seats instead of 100,000+ is a big difference in the scope of work. I wonder if they have to be done 3 months before for the inspection?

Live of ommission really. Besides, it's a private company, are they really required to issue a press release everytime something comes up?

From the outside looking in, I don't see how its over yet.

 

It's called "float" in Primavera Construction scheduling software.. (not that I know anything about it)

And it can vary to the "long side" without impact, usually...until it hits a "Predicating Milestone" of another trade, with impact costs (not that I know anything about it).

Are you this rigid (and demeaning) with those you 'deal' with, in your career?

To be using a document that old at this point, is meaningless.
It was a PROPOSED schedule based upon the OLD race date.
Once underway it's updated weekly sometimes more.

They have NOT lost any days against the "normal rainfall" clause, although the fires in Bastrop could be an 'Act of God' if needed in court I suppose.
Thank goodness they got no closer than they did.

With condolences to Tahitian Village.

 

Is that all it is going to take?

THANK GOD they hadn't sold any tickets before they had a new contract in hand....

 

Or realized the negative PR that would have resulted by selling tickets without the new contract in hand.

I did skip over a believe though, oops

 

So your "experience" led you to suggest that the 10-man electrical company would be the ones you would call to handle the electrical install at COTA?

That says all I need to know about your experience in track construction.

 

I have never said they were bankrupt.

What I did say, right from the beginning, was...

1) Tavo and "full throttle" were hacks well below the level necessary to pull off a USGP. That turned out to be true.

2) The project was underfunded. That also turned out to be true.

3) They were way behind on construction. We also know that to be true now

4) The job was a lot bigger than some were giving it credit for. Suggestions like "call in such-and-such company to do the electrical" and "they can just wheel in temporary grandstands" and "the buildings will be done off-site and brought in, so the fact there are no building is no big deal" were incorrect. That also turned out to be true.

None of the above was even particularly insightful - just reasonable conclusions from observation.

My further and as-yet-unproven conclusion is that COTA is in deep doo-doo and need a herculean effort to get the job done. Many of the excuses people given which would make them appear to be less behind schedule have turned out to be exactly that - excuses. Their own schedule has them months behind, behind even for a November race date.

...and had no further reason to keep up the charade. If he said that and it was untrue, it would have a material effect on COTA's ability to raise additional funds or the stability of whatever partnership they formed. Given that COTA never refuted his words or took any action, it seems very likely it was entirely accurate, no?

The debate was regarding whether they would just wheel in some temporary buildings and grandstands and call it an F1 race, as some suggested. The scope of the project is clearly orders of magnitude more than that.

...except quite a few on here were arguing vehemently that everything was OK at COTA. Turns out that wasn't the case.

I don't think it's over either. I think they are still going to make an effort out of it. Will it be done in time for 2012? Not in the form they have marketed and not in the form you see in the bid package. Will an F1 race happen there in 2012? I'd say it's 50/50 at this point.

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/formula_one/16225954.stm

 

He is absolutely right, F1 will never be big in the US and will always play second (or third fiddle) to NASCAR and Indy cars. At best it's a niche product for the US market, however; if properly marketed (yet to be done effectively by COTA) they should be able to pull in enough fans to make it viable.

 

Mmmm..... as I seem to recall saying elsewhere:

Seems Bernie might be having the same sort of thoughts!

 

I wouldn't say that based on the article:

Bernie has little faith in the Austin GP happening.
Aside from that he mentioned that F1 will never be big in the US.

I agree with both of those statements.

 

Maybe I'm getting cynical in My old age but when I hear Bernie making these sort of statements, I get the impression that he's just not really that bothered about F1 in America, like he doesn't really believe it's a long term "investment" and isn't really behind it 100%.

It just seems to Me he's seen an opportunity to make some fast money whether the races take place or not and that suits him just fine.


Edited to add:

Ecclestone told the British-based PitPass website. “They have paid us the money. I’m confident we will keep the money if the race doesn’t happen. It’s an incentive, isn’t it?”

See, it's all about the money with Bernie, nothing else.

 

He might not be 100% convinced that F1 in the US is a good idea but he doesn't have a choice as the car manufacturers need a race here. They'll keep pushing until they get one.