What's Drew Brees Worth?

4re Nut · Mar 23, 2012

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Whats-Drew-Brees-worth.html

With Peyton Manning finding a new home in Denver, Drew Brees’ agent, Tom Condon, can focus more of his attention on a new contract for the Saints quarterback. The sides are reportedly $4 million to $5 million per year apart on his deal. Brees is looking for an average of $23 million in the first three years of his contract, but the Saints’ last offer to him averaged $18 million to $18.5 million per year.

Manning’s five-year, $96 million contract with the Broncos and Roger Goodell’s stiff penalties against key figures of the New Orleans Saints organization for their bounty program should give Brees more leverage in his negotiations. Condon will remind the Saints that Manning could have exploited Tennessee Titans owner Bud Adams’ proclamation of doing whatever it takes to sign the former Colt into a larger contract with better structure, but chose to concentrate on the football situations of his suitors instead of the financial aspects of his contract.

Manning’s deal is structured differently than the typical NFL contract. It contains protections for the Broncos relating to his pre-existing neck condition. At 33-years-old, Brees is almost three years younger than Manning and much healthier. He also hasn’t had any significant injuries since joining the Saints in 2006. Given this backdrop, what’s Brees worth?

I have examined NFL salary trends for the most lucrative NFL contracts over the last five years while utilizing a couple of different methodologies to arrive at contract parameters that could help end their stalemate.

Average Yearly Salary

I have employed three different methods to determine a range for the average yearly salary of Brees’ contract. The first method looks at the financial relationship between the highest paid quarterback and the highest paid non-quarterback. The second one explores the difference in the quarterback franchise numbers and largest franchise number at the other positions. The third approach examines the disparity in the salary of the highest paid quarterback and the second highest paid quarterback.

In 2007, Carson Palmer was the NFL’s highest paid player with his seven-year Cincinnati Bengals contract extension averaging $16,166,167 per year while defensive end Dwight Freeney’s six-year, $72 million deal with the Indianapolis Colts set the standard for non-quarterbacks. By 2011, Larry Fitzgerald’s seven-year contract extension with the Arizona Cardinals averaging $16,142,857 had closed the gap between the highest paid non-quarterback and the highest paid quarterback (Tom Brady and Manning at $18 million per year). During these five years, the highest paid quarterback’s salary was 22.7% greater than the highest non-quarterback. Calvin Johnson’s new seven-year contract extension with the Detroit Lions at $16,207,143 per year is the current benchmark in non-quarterback salaries. Applying Johnson’s average salary to the discrepancy in quarterback and non-quarterback compensation puts Brees’ deal at approximately $19.9 million per year.

Until non-exclusive franchise tag calculations were changed in the latest Collective Bargaining Agreement, they were based off the salaries of the five highest paid players at a position (usually defined by salary cap numbers) in the previous season. This produced a lot of variance with them.

For example, the quarterback franchise number went from $12.615 million in 2007 to $10.73 million in 2008, then jumped to $14.651 million in 2009. Since these franchise tags are now calculated over a five year period that’s tied to a percentage of the overall cap, there shouldn’t be such fluctuations in the future. The largest non-quarterback franchise number was split between two positions, cornerback (2008-2009) and defensive end (2010-2012). The quarterback franchise number has been 30.2% larger than the top non-quarterback franchise one during the span. When this percentage difference is applied to Calvin Johnson’s deal, it yields approximately a $21.1 million average per year for Brees.

The difference between the highest paid quarterback and the second highest paid quarterback isn’t as pronounced as the difference in quarterback’s salaries relative to other positions. There was less than $100,000 difference in the average per year of these two quarterbacks in 2009. The New York Giants’ Eli Manning was at $16.25 million per year while Palmer was at $16,166,667. Last season, Brady and Peyton Manning were in a tie atop the NFL’s salary hierarchy. The highest paid quarterback’s deal has only averaged 7% more than the quarterback salary runner up.

$20.5 million per year seems reasonable for Brees when Manning’s $19.2 million per year average is used in conjunction with this 7% difference.

First Three Years Compensation

In determining the appropriate range for the compensation in the first three years of Brees’ contract, the franchise analysis wasn’t applicable but the other two methodologies were.

Prior to Peyton Manning signing his contract with the Colts last July, there hadn’t been much of an increase with the most compensation in the first three years for quarterbacks. It had gone from Palmer’s $45.75 million in 2006 to Eli Manning’s $49 million in 2009. It took a dramatic jump with Peyton Manning getting $70.2 million in the first three years of his Colts contract and dwarfed the first three years compensation leader for non-quarterbacks, which was Fitzgerald with $45.5 million.

Mario Williams’ six-year, $96 million contract with the Buffalo Bills is now the yardstick with $53 million in his first three years. Since the top quarterback has gotten 26.9% more money in the first three years of his deal than the top non-quarterback, Brees gets approximately $67.275 million in his first three years if it is utilized with Williams’ $53 million.

Peyton Manning’s contract also skews the numbers between the top two quarterbacks. The difference between them had been minimal from 2007 to 2010 with the largest separation coming in 2009 when Eli Manning had $3.25 million more in his first three years than Palmer. That difference was more than six times greater than it was in 2009 after Peyton Manning got his deal in 2011.

Overall, there was an 11.4% discrepancy with the top two quarterbacks over the five years. Peyton Manning still leads the way at $58 million over the first three years with his Broncos contract. Applying the 11.4% to the three-year compensation in his new contract gets Brees to approximately $64.625 million.

Guaranteed Money

When examining guaranteed money, the focus is limited to the quarterback/non-quarterback salary relationship since $53.25 million of Calvin Johnson’s deal was fully guaranteed at its signing. This set a record for fully guaranteed money in NFL contracts. The final two years of his contract are voidable, but the Lions can buy them back by guaranteeing an additional $3.5 million in each of those years.

Tom Brady has $58 million of guarantees in the contract he signed in 2010, but $39.7 million of them are conditional, which require him to be on the roster at a certain date for the guarantee to vest, or injury guarantees. Partially thanks to Brady’s deal, the quarterback leader has gotten 18.1% more in guarantees than the non-quarterback leader in the past five years. Approximately, $62.875 million of Brees’ contract should be fully guaranteed when applying this standard to Johnson’s full guarantees.

The Result

Objectively, a five-year contract averaging $20 million to $21 million seems appropriate for Brees. Reaching such a deal will require some compromising by both sides.

Brees must be willing to be flexible on his desired $69 million over three years. The Saints will need to stop looking at how much it would cost them if they went yearly by franchising him, which is in the neighborhood of $60 million with three years of franchise tags. Brees’ exclusive franchise number will be set after the restricted free agent signing period ends on April 20th and appears to be coming in lower than initially anticipated at $15.261 million because several quarterbacks (Ben Roethlisberger, Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady, etc) with high cap numbers restructured their 2012 contracts to create cap room for their clubs.

Franchising Brees for a second time next year would cost the Saints $18.313 million, which is 120% of his 2012 franchise amount. They could franchise him for a third time at 144% of his 2013 franchise number, which would be $26.37 million.

If both parties are serious about compromising, Brees should receive $64 million to $67.5 million in his first three years. With Johnson getting $53.25 million of his contract fully guaranteed at signing, most, if not all of Brees’ first three years should be fully guaranteed.

The Saints could use some good news in light of Roger Goodell’s sanctions for their bounty program. If coming a lot closer to Brees’ demands than they anticipated is a consequence, it could well be worth it to the Saints under the circumstances.
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It will be interesting to see how close this guy is to the actual deal...assuming there is one.

TexasF355F1 · Mar 23, 2012

I think he should look to Arian and follow his lead.

rollsorferrari? · Mar 23, 2012

Interesting write up. I'd imagine an AAV of 20-21 will be what we see.

But, if they want to save some money, I'll work for the league minimum, no guarantees of any wins though,

Whisky · Mar 24, 2012

Not reading that long huge article.

Brees deserves about what Manning is getting, either one, Eli or Payton.
Without him that offense simply doesn't 'work', period, not unlike Indy last year without Peyton.

Mike J · Mar 24, 2012

He should make double what Romo makes. He's twice the player.

4re Nut · Sep 7, 2017

Whisky said: ↑

Not reading that long huge article...
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Short and sweet...

...Objectively, a five-year contract averaging $20 million to $21 million seems appropriate for Brees...Brees should receive $64 million to $67.5 million in his first three years [i.e. guaranteed money]...
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Whisky said: ↑

...Brees deserves about what Manning is getting, either one, Eli or Payton...
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No idea how accurate this site is but FWIW: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-york-giants/eli-manning/ & http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/denver-broncos/peyton-manning/
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4re Nut · Sep 7, 2017

Mike J said: ↑

He should make double what Romo makes. He's twice the player.
Click to expand...

No idea how accurate this site is but FWIW: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/tony-romo/
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Whisky · Mar 31, 2012

Guys, I still maintain: if the players don't get it, the owners keep it.
I seldom hear fans say 'the owner makes too much'.
Except in Miami.

4re Nut · Jul 3, 2012

http://www.nola.com/saints/index.ssf/2012/07/drew_brees_receives_favorable.html

The NFL confirmed Tuesday that arbitrator Stephen Burbank has ruled in favor of Drew Brees and the NFLPA, finding that a franchise tag in 2013 would be Brees' third, not his second, such designation.

As a result, Brees, who is still embroiled in long-term contract negotiations with the New Orleans Saints, will be eligible for a 44 percent pay raise if he receives the franchise tag again next offseason. Another designation in 2013 would reward the All-Pro quarterback with a one-year deal worth $23.5 million.

The ruling gives Brees increased leverage as negotiations with the Saints near a July 16 deadline to settle on a long-term deal. If he does not sign a contract at that time, Brees will be forced to play under the franchise tender of $16.37 million, or he could opt to sit out some or all of next season...
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Ugh...still no answer to what he is worth.

Whisky · Jul 8, 2012

4re Nut said: ↑

Ugh...still no answer to what he is worth.
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What WE think he is worth, or what N.O. OWNERSHIP thinks he is worth?

I will almost bet you he will sign a bug contract - and go down for the season by week 5.
It seems to happen every time to anyone that signs a big contract.

WAR EGL · Jul 12, 2012

Unlike every other NFL starting quarterback, he is worth whatever he wants to NO. They are only $1.25M/year apart. This is a hill that Saints ownership wants to die on, seriously???? More so than any other franchise, Drew Brees isn't just the face of the franchise. He is the New Orleans Saints. If you don't pay him, he will sit out this year and be a free agent next year - he won't chance what happened to him in SD happening again with a franchise tag. Is that worth quibbling over $1.25M? Write the check and move on, or become the irrelevent team you were before Drew Brees.

rollsorferrari? · Jul 12, 2012

WAR EGL said: ↑

Unlike every other NFL starting quarterback, he is worth whatever he wants to NO. They are only $1.25M/year apart. This is a hill that Saints ownership wants to die on, seriously???? More so than any other franchise, Drew Brees isn't just the face of the franchise. He is the New Orleans Saints. If you don't pay him, he will sit out this year and be a free agent next year - he won't chance what happened to him in SD happening again with a franchise tag. Is that worth quibbling over $1.25M? Write the check and move on, or become the irrelevent team you were before Drew Brees.
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Lol "only" 1.25 MILLION apart,

That's the problem with most teams nowadays, they have a star who when it comes time for a new contract chases the almighty dollar. There is no loyalty left. But, thats the price we pay for free agency, and I thank Curt Flood for opening the gates - all leagues would be nowhere if FA weren't around.

WAR EGL · Jul 13, 2012

rollsorferrari? said: ↑

Lol "only" 1.25 MILLION apart,
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While its $1.25M, its still only 6.5% more than the team is offering. Is 6.5% worth losing Brees? Plus signing him to the Franchise Tag isn't good for the team either. I just don't understand the team's thinking on this one.

rollsorferrari? said: ↑

That's the problem with most teams nowadays, they have a star who when it comes time for a new contract chases the almighty dollar. There is no loyalty left. But, thats the price we pay for free agency, and I thank Curt Flood for opening the gates - all leagues would be nowhere if FA weren't around.
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The rest of the world gets to go where they want - be it geographically, for the best payday or whatever that individual is looking for. Why shouldn't athletes have the same freedoms when their contract is up?

I also think football is different. Lack of guaranteed contracts and franchise tags make it different than other sports - especially for a contact sport. Brees got stuck with a franchise tag in SD and almost had his career ended that year with the shoulder injury. I wouldn't risk my future income by playing under a franchise tag either.

rollsorferrari? · Jul 13, 2012

The answer is: 5 years, 100 million, 60 million guaranteed.

4re Nut · Sep 7, 2017

rollsorferrari? said: ↑

The answer is: 5 years, 100 million, 60 million guaranteed.
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Wurd.

http://www.nola.com/saints/index.ssf/2012/07/drew_brees_new_orleans_saints_10.html

The Who Dat Nation can finally breathe. Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints agreed to a five-year contract worth $100 million on Friday, as first reported by ESPN's Chris Mortensen, making the 33-year-old quarterback the highest-paid player in NFL history.

Brees later confirmed the deal on Twitter, saying, "Deal is Done! Love you, Who Dat Nation. See you soon!"

And he later told ESPN's Ed Werder:

"I appreciate the diligence and steadfast efforts by both sides to get this deal done. I love my organization, team, and the city of New Orleans. Thank you especially to (owners) Gayle and Tom Benson for the opportunity. Now I need to go earn it."

The average salary of $20 million surpassed the $19.2 million per year that the Denver Broncos gave quarterback Peyton Manning earlier this year. ESPN reported the deal is worth $40 million in the first year, with $60 million guaranteed in the first three years.

The deal is not expected to cause any salary-cap problems for the Saints in 2012. Brees was already counting against the Saints' cap at a salary of $16.4 million this year (the size of his one-year franchise tag offer). And the team could easily structure his long-term deal in a way that keeps his cap figure the same or lower.

ESPN reported that Brees will be guaranteed $40 million in the first year, including signing bonus and salary. Pro Football Talk reported the signing bonus is $37 million. According to ESPN, the Saints will have a three-day window to release him following the 2012 season. Assuming they don't, another $15 million will be fully guaranteed in Year 2. Then in 2014, they'll have another three-day window to release him, or else another $5 million will be fully guaranteed. He'll also earn a $1 million salary that year, making the deal worth $61 million over the first three years.

The deal came two days before Monday's deadline for franchise-tagged players to reach long-term contracts. And it came just 11 days before the Saints are scheduled to report to training camp. Brees missed the Saints' entire workout program during the high-stakes contract standoff, which lingered for months until the deadline pressure finally kicked in.

Although the contract talks were intense, they aren't expected to cause any lingering resentment from either side. This was a win-win deal that both sides were always hoping to reach, even if they squabbled over a few million dollars here and there. Expect a lot of positive comments from both sides today and a lot of optimism about the 2012 season.

Brees can now turn his focus toward following up one of the greatest statistical seasons in franchise history. He helped raise his historical market value last season by throwing for a NFL-record 5,476 yards while leading the Saints to a 13-3 record.

Stay tuned for further details and reaction.
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Who Dat!
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4re Nut · Sep 7, 2017

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AceMaster · Jul 16, 2012

4re Nut said: ↑

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Lol

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