Ferrari 458 Replacement

Some say there will be a 458 Scuderia in 2013 and a full replacement of the Italia in 2014, to me this doesn't make sense at all, either skip the Scuderia and release a whole new car in 2014 or delay the release of 458's replacement to 2015, that's how it has always been, I mean why would u release a Scuderia in 2013 and a full replacement the year after?
Other rumors are suggesting a slight refresh to the Italia in 2014 like they did with the California and keeping the current model till 2016 and following Lamborghini's path, who knows..
What do you guys think?

 

I think they will stick to current format and new car in 2015 with Scud next year.

 

I think we've got 3 years until we would talk about a 458 replacement....

aftel 3 years it still looks like busines. May be slightly slower on paper than MP4 but it have huge number of advantages over the Mc. Mp4 could get another 100hp over the Ferrari( almost 50 over already) and still wont be a problem.


Scuderia/challenge stradale will come in at least a year

 

According to the Internet, at a private press conference back in June of 2010, Montezelemo is quoted as saying, " ... there will not be a 458 Scuderia." Is that still true today? Who knows?

I haven't been paying much attention lately, but how different is the Challenge from the a standard 458 - and how much of that can be incorporated into a road car?

I like the idea of following in the California's footsteps and only doing a engine power upgrade and making a few minor changes. The reason this makes sense to me, is that the resale value of used 458s with low miles is still too high . How much are you going to charge for a replacement car when optioned used cars are being offered on the market starting in the $260K range?

We're not going to know this of course, but has Ferrari come up with enough technical innovations to even justify a "new" model? What short-comings in the 458 (road and race cars) have customers been clamoring about that needs to be fixed? But Ferrari may "tweak" some things in the absence of any well-publicized feedback about the car. As with any car, it's never really "done" when it goes into production. I would imagine that the engineers had a lot of ideas that they just weren't able to get into the car before they had to stop working on it.

We'll just have to wait and see...

 

It's all speculation of course but FWIW:
-- I doubt if there will be an engine refresh in the later 458s. Whereas the California had room for hp increases, the 458 has little such room without sacrificing some driveability.
-- My dealer confides that we are two years away from a more track-oriented 458, implying that there will be one and it will be in 2014.
-- This suggests that the timetable would bring on an 'evolved' 458, as the F430 was evolved from the 360, and in successive pairs of V8 models before that, and the timing would likely be in 2015.

 

Everything is pure speculation....My dealer told me there could be a "Scud" 458 in 2014 and into 2015 possibly...he said he expects a new model possibly in 2016....with no official info it's all guesswork...

 

There is definitely a lighter, track-focused 458 on the way.

 

There is a lighter 458 coming next year. The 458 replacement should be introduced at the end of 2014 (Possibly at the Paris show).

 

I don't feel the format is changing, the Stradale/Scuderia formula have worked well and the 458 we have today is clearly a conservative version, you can tell by the high factory ride height, conservative offset wheels and a quiet exhaust. That was done intentionally to leave room for a more track-focused aggressive model.

There is room in the engine department as well, as can be seen by all the aftermarket tuning, 600 hp is easily done with an exhaust and a more aggressive tune. The Stradale/Scuderia both had 20~30 extra hp then the regular version, 30hp gain from exhaust + aggressive mapping on the 458 is not a coincident. If they don't plan to have an aggressive model, they would not leave HP on the table like that.

The only question is will there be a Scuderia spider......aka the 16M. That was a special limited quantity run, they might not do it again. But then the 16M was a big success. I don't see why they won't do it again.

Now that the MP4-12C have 616 hp, a 600 hp 458 Monte Carlo is very logical. The 620 hp rumor might not be true though, as that is extremely high specific output that no one have done before on a street car.

 

Great points.

When I look at the space between the fenders and tire, I know that Maranello plans a track-based car. The only reason Maranello would produce the 458 with such an unsightly handling handicap is that they intend to produce a more advanced car with the gap closed. (Planned Obsolescence).

The track based car will be lighter, stiffer, lower, and slightly more powerful (600 HP sounds about right).

Another consideration is the presence of demand. Ferrari will have waiting lists for such a car and people not able to purchase a vehicle directly from a dealer will be stand in line for the opportunity to pay 75K over sticker.

It's definitely coming.

 

He might have said that so people won't delay their 458 purchase to wait for the aggressive model.

 

Will the 458 replacement keep to Ferrari tradition and not be a clean sheet replacement?

Ala, 328 from 308, 355 from 348, F430 from 360

 

Thank you.

Exactly, just like how the 599 GTB is extremely conservative to leave room for the HGTE and ultimately the very aggressive GTO. Just like the movie business, the scripts for the prequel and sequel are done at the same time as the original.

On the other hand, the model that they don't plan to have extra aggressive version, mainly the exotic model (288GTO/F40/F50/Enzo), or the previous F355/348/328/308......the initial version is already very aggressive with nothing left on the table.

 

Most likely, tradition rarely changes.

 

I predict 458 Scud in 2014 model year.Replacement 458 in 2015 model year.
Ferrari can't afford to do only a minor upgrade. Lambo is coming with
an all new Gallardo. Porsche are coming with a 458 competitor
So they need major upgrades to see off the upcoming rivalry.
There is a good possibility of seeing a 620 hp in the 458 scud so
that the replacement 458 will not make it obsolete as in 458 v 430 scud

 

I had a 2007 F430 then bought a 2008 430 Scuderia it was a painful experience when I went from the Scuderia to the 458.The scuderia dropped over a like a rock over a 100k.I don't think I will make that move again due to the Scuderia phasing out to a newer body style not to mention they had a limited production of the Scuderia then popped out with the 16M which was the nail in the coffin.I'm sure the next Scuderia won't be cheap which makes the sting more painful

 

I was at the factory last may I asked the plant manager about the 458 Scud and he pointed to a double door closed area in the production area,When I asked to see it there was a firm head nod follwed by Io non posso permetterLe di vederlo.I believe it was there and made.I think it will come out Mid 3rd Q 2013 giving them a 2 year run including a spider version then release a new model for 2016 thats my 2 cents

 

IMO They will only do a one year model run - Doesn't feel special or limited when its sold over 2 model years.Plus they will reduce the production numbers as well.
The 430 scud was launched MY2008 which was only 3 model years after 430 launched.
by the time 458 scud comes the regular 458 would have already been on the market 4 model years

 

My guess is as follows

The new Scud will be

1) much more farther away in price than the previous ones.

2) much more radical than the previous ones. I see more CF in structural pieces following McLaren's lead and the new Enzo.

I also predict it will be made and sold in limited supplies to keep prices from tumbling like the oversold Scud. Ferrari will do whatever it can to keep resale values from plunging like the Scud.

If you compare resale lost values between Scuds and Californias, the Scud is just crazy. They can't have that again or overall resales will fall and a lot of new buyers will jump ship or just give up.

The Scud is a limited market. A lot of people bought them and flipped them or gave them back to get a 458 early. Early adopters made out but everyone else got creamed. Limiting the market will prevent that, as has their initial limitations on the 458 and currently the 458 spider.

 

Curious as to why you think this one will be much more radical than before?

 

Absolutely agree on limited supplies.They must have learnt their lesson form the Scuds

 

One question that I can't get my head through is, why the hell would you release a Stradale/Scuderia as a 2014 model and burning it in terms of performance/resale and releasing a whole new model the year after.
The way i see it is this:

458 Scuderia debuting late 2013 as a 2014 model (If there is one).
458 replacement debuting late 2015 as a 2016 model.

Giving the Scuderia a 2 year run to justify the extra $60-70K over the standard model that people will pay, not to mention the huge depreciation hit these cars will take if Ferrari decides to release a whole new car the year after.

 

Because of McLaren. They have to go over the top or be considered also ran rich men's toys. It's a question of credibility to the brand.

 

Interesting consensus on the Scud.

Something along the lines of Eric Clapton's 458 v12 would be plenty radical for anyone - and I doubt they will call it Scuderia, so that it doesn't contradict what Montezemolo said at the 2010 press conference, which would be bad PR for both himself and Ferrari.

 

The 458 "scud" will be like the 360 stradale and 430 scud. It's the same for the Gallardo. So don't expect any big change. That will come with the 458 replacement.