Ever meet a salesman who told you it wasn't a good time to buy? There's a lot of great expertise on this forum but you have to consider what particular perspective it's coming from.
I think the value of all existing Ferraris declined 20% the other day, after the name of the new supercar was announced. George
In addition, I think there's just an appeal to the pre-1974 cars (Ferrari especially, but also Mercedes and Porsche) that isn't available in the newer cars. There will always be wealthy guys retiring, and they will likely always consider those '50s/'60s sports cars special. I wasn't around when the 300 SL was in production, but I'd spend a lot to have one in my garage. They're just stupendously elegant cars compared to, say, a new SLS. I agree. It doesn't take a huge market to sustain high prices for the surviving examples of vintage/classic cars. And, as I wrote above, you don't get chromed bumpers, real gauges, carbs and the timeless style of a Dino or early SL in anything newer. I also think that 4,000 Dinos is kind of a sweet spot -- where the car is available enough that there will always be a knowledgeable community associated with it, and an established market for resale. The modern market will take a dump (360s, 599s, etc.) I'm not worried about future values of a dozen or so 250 GT California LWB Spyders or 16 Jag XK-SS's. It doesn't take too many wealthy enthusiasts pursuing these to keep prices high. Regarding museum pieces: Back to the Dino 246 example, I think they're much like early Porsche 911s in that they are driveable classics, which will always help their values -- and to me makes them extremely desirable. Exactly. I didn't know what a 250 GT SWB was when I was in my 20s. When I was in my teens, the Ferrari 308 was the top of the automotive food chain, and I also liked Porsche's 944. Well... you're right, and I think we're on a technology treadmill where high end cars are obsolete liabilities within 5-6 years. But, given a relatively small supply of vintage Ferraris you really don't need a million young people with taste for prices to stay high. There's an in-between view. I can't stand spending $100K on a new daily driver, but I'm OK spending a lot more than that on an old Porsche because I'm pretty sure I'll break even or do better, and have a lot of fun in the meantime. I bought it because I like it -- driving it, looking after it, reading up on its history -- but the fact that it's not depreciating and could help fund my next vintage car purchase is very attractive to me. So, not sure I'm an investor, because the value isn't the main thing; but I expect it retain value over time, so there is a money component to how I view the car: I don't expect to drive it to death and then scrap it, which would be the purist enthusiast view.
Bingo! I just bought a 69S and used the "Investment" argument to justify (to myself) the purchase. The reality is I think it's a cool car. If it appreciates more than my investment portfolio then cool. If not, I'm still going to love playing in the twisties in a car that's worlds away from my GT3 ...which is guaranteed to depreciate.
Sheehan also comments on this http://www.motorcarmarket.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=227:ferraris-boom-or-bust&catid=39:return-to-articles-list&Itemid=59
Think about it this way. There are easily useable ferraris, there are rare ferraris and there are also old ferraris. With the earlier 250's being useable rares and old their prices are over 750K. Putting aside 4 seaters, Same applies to the 275 series cars. The Daytona in the mdoern world is slightly less useable or is harder to use at lower speeds and fetches a lower price than the earlier V12's. the Boxer is even harder to drive and is more numerous so its lower still. If you want an older classic two seater Ferrari and dont have over 500K to spoend your choice is Dino Daytona Boxer. Of those the Dino is the most easily useable, has the more classic type shape, hence even though they lack in performance and are pretty numerous their price is between a Daytona and a Boxer. A boxer while being the best of the bunch currently has a limited Bandwidth, you really have to know how to drive to use one, and its really a special occasion car which also cant sit too long. In time that will push its values even higher, because after the daytona it comes next, but in some ways is closer to a 288 GTO in looks and feel. In any event, the higher vlaues means many if not all these older F-cars got saved restored etc, and thats a good thing. They are also not making any more, so with increasing global wealth and collectability desire all prices of older ferraris will go up. Other Marques maybe not so much, every pre luca ferrari is pretty much Iconic except maybe the mondial. Other marques have iconic models which will follow the trend. Look at E type jags which are really numerous, any long term trend is up. Same with carbed 911's, the demmand supply curve has hit a certain point, there are no new ones, so prices will from now on only trend up.
This is the CNBC "report" on Ferrari bubble: Is There a Ferrari Bubble Forming? - CNBC It's very thin on information.
I always like it when the Saturday afternoon experts come on & give us their opinions based on nothing. I wonder if these geniuses have something to say now that the three million dollar Ferraris all sold at Amelia?? How come we never hear any follow up??? Ken Goldman
The elephant in the room is the guys that are buying these cars are old. I would say most of the guys at Amelia Island buying are 65-80 with the median buyers age of 70. I am 55 and the youngster in the group. No guys in their 40's buying these cars at the moment.
That is simply not true. Perhaps the majority of the buyers are in the 65-80 bracket, but there are at least some vintage Ferraris buyers (some of which are on this board) that are in the 40 to 50 age bracket.
Honestly, this is a pretty good analysis. However, pretty cars sell better than not so pretty cars --- and what is or is not good looking changes over time. Add in rarity or at least rare to be in good shape or low miles or historical significance and the factors go up significantly.
Duuno...I am in my mid 40's and have owned vintage Fcars that included a Lusso since I've been in my late 30's. Personally know some collectors in their 30's who own vintage Ferraris. I do see most of the money spend on the vintage Ferraris, especially the high dollar ones, are those folks that have the means to do so and incidentally are over 60 years old. But it's not always the case from my prospective. Geno
I agree with what you say and have followed that exact program . I have never bought a car just because it might be a good investment. I always buy because I really want it and never on a whim usually it is a car I have wanted for years , It has served me well . However within that I try to buy the best I can afford within reason . Dinos at 400K might seem a little out of line today not sure what happens in the future . However I think DINOs will always be a special car and will have a decent market.
But 90% of them are old guys. I bought my OSCA when I was 27 but I was not the norm. Very few of my friends 30-50 are into cars at all and they have lots of money. They spend it on art and travel.
Well DUH!! They have the money! Thirtysomethings for the most part are just trying to build a life. From the ForbesList: "29 Billionaires under 30" The rest of them are old guys! The real question re: a Ferrari bubble; what is the interest level of the 29 under 30 in Ferraris today, and what will it be going forward? That may provide some insight to the bubble question....
I was in the low 40's when I bought the 330. The Dino and 308's were the F-cars I was into as a teenager, but I still went back to buy a car much earlier than what interested me as a youth. My exposure to 330's back then was mostly seeing them listed in the weekly "Auto Trader" magazine for around $8k. I used to think: "those are nice looking cars, but there must be something wrong with them at that price..."
I think when cnbc has an article about the Ferrari bubble, then we are at the end ready to burst. Kind of like calling 911 after the house has already burnt to the ground and the embers are out. Cnbc isn't exactly breaking news.
I would disagree with that notion...I'm 32 and own a 250 GTE, iso grifo, dino all of which I drive and enjoy (as cars not investments). I bought my GTE 3 years ago and have a handful of friends of similar age with ACs, dinos, 330GTCs, daytonas as well.
Go to an event like Art Basel you see a wide mix of people of all age groups that have an interest and spend money on that interest. Go to a car event like Hershey,vintage race or a show like Amelia Island. The folks owning and buying these cars are old white guys 60-75+. 20 years ago go to an auction of American 18th century furniture and the bidding crowd was 50 . Go to one today it is attended by people in their 70's and prices are down as it is out of fashion to collect. Go to a mid century modern furniture auction you have people from 25-60 collecting.
Certainly part of this age factor is due to it taking a long time for most to have the accumulated discretionary wealth to buy a vintage Ferrari (or several). I think it's absolutely true that many things can go out of style for the next generation, but I feel Ferrari is immune because of what it is. The experience of driving one is visceral and can't be duplicated by anything else. The history of racing and the brand itself is unique. If you start up a vintage Ferrari, people of all ages will run to the car just to listen to it -- not just old guys. I think Ferraris are somewhat unique in this respect. Duesenbergs, for example, are amazing cars by any measure, I respect them, but they don't excite me personally (don't hate me Jim). If I grew up when Duesenbergs were around, I'm sure they would excite me more. Vintage Ferraris, on the other hand, I'm certain would excite me no matter what decade I was born in.
Question: What was the 275 that just sold for over $2 million worth in 2003? I don't know the history of this particular car, but from what I can remember even alloy body cars were going for around $500,000 USD. Is this a good guess? Dale
As an old Boxer owner, I agree about its habits. Another factor that supports and will continue to support the market for these cars in the long term -- and collectable cars in general -- is the weakness of the major world currencies: The dollar, Euro, and stirling. The situation is different with each of these, but the common feature is the inability to rein in government spending and to sustain the rapidly increasing debt. This is turn will tend to drive investors to seek stability in tangible assets, including commodities and collectables. As for CNBC, they know nothing.
If currently the majority of the buyers of Classic Ferraris are of the senior ages, there's only one way prices will go if the younger and middle aged buyers catch on as well, given similar economic conditions.
