Collectability v. Volume by Michael Sheehan.

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April 2013 issue

Sheehan-Online

by Michael Sheehan


1 of 80, this should be a short article; right?

Collectability versus volume

Every column has its inspiration and this column is the response to one of the oft-repeated questions that crosses my desk "Will the modern Ferraris, such as the Scuderia, the 16M, the 599 GTO or the 599 SA Aperta become classics like the Lusso, the 275 GTB or other collectable earlier Ferraris"? Sadly the answer is "no". The collectability of anything, be it Ferraris, coins, stamps or whatever, is in large part inversely related to the number built and far too many modern Ferraris are now being built to ever be anything more than the latest-greatest exotic, and then only until the next newer-and-faster model comes along. The numbers tell the story.

The Joys of Trainspotting

Trainspotters began as a unique English subculture of individuals who first wandered out into the moors in the rain, sleet and snow in the Victorian era, when the rapidly growing British railway system personified British industrial power, recording the numbers painted on the sides of passing freight cars, passenger cars, and locomotives. These numbers were dutifully entered by hand into databases and spreadsheets so that the numbers, locations, and travels of virtually every train car in Britain could be carefully tracked. Once recorded, this information was then swapped by mail with other trainspotters to build obsessive-compulsive databases of trainspotting information. Today true "trainspotters" are to be found in virtually every major country.

The Ferrari world has a similar tiny subculture of only a few dozen hard-core spotters worldwide, including yours truly, who have dedicated much of their lifetimes to recording race results, ownership data and other arcane information on their favorite Ferrari models. Today that data is in computer databases and information is traded within our group in seconds, by e-mail. This obsessive-compulsive knowledge had been the basis for our business model for the last two decades.

One serial number, one Ferrari

In theory every Ferrari is singular, one serial number, one Ferrari. Alas the world of Ferraris is not that simple, as Ferrari has a long history of complicating the lives of Ferrari spotters. I first covered this subject over two decades ago in 1989, in an 8-page article in Cavallino #57, pages 20-27. We had sold 375 MM s/n 0362 to a Japanese customer who was more than miffed to learn that Ferrari had once swapped serial numbers on his race car. I had to explain that in the 1950s Ferrari was firstly a race team whose goal was to win top level international races, and secondly to cover the payroll by selling last month's slightly-used race car to privateers who could win national level races. Because both factory and privateer drivers have a nasty habit of breaking parts and hitting things, demand often exceeded supply. The imminent arrival of a paying, (or Heaven forbid, pre-paid) client to pick up his Factory-new steed guaranteed that swapping serial numbers to get a car and client out the door was a necessity of business. To overtly simplify, in period s/n 0362 was numbered from 0362 to 0374 and then back to 0362, while a second 375 MM, s/n 0376, was renumbered to 0362 so that today two 375 MMs exist with a period factory claim to s/n 0362!

The well-researched Enzo-era.

The Enzo-era Ferraris have been tracked since the 1960s thanks to early spotters such as Stan Nowak and Gerald Roush, and begin with s/n 01C in 1947. The Enzo-era cars end with the last of the 365 GTB/4 and 246 series, in mid-1973. The 365 GTB/4 Daytona ended production at s/n 17615, and every other GT Ferrari (odd s/ns only) was (in theory) a street car, so about 8,807 cars from the first 125 Sport to the last Daytona. Add in another 3,700 Dinos for a total of about 12,500 street and GT racers. The even-numbered race cars end with s/n 896, the last of the 312 PBs, so about 448 pure race cars, plus another 50 racers with unique s/n sequences such as the 206 SPs (s/n 002 - 036) and 512Ms (1002 - 1050) for a total of just under 500 even-numbered racers and Sport racers. Add in the F1 cars, from the first 1.5 litre supercharged 125 through the 375s to the last of the 312 B3 series gives us another 65 or so F1 cars for a total of just over 13,000 or so Enzo-era Ferraris.

FIAT ramps up the numbers

The FIAT-era cars are less convoluted to track as the days of one-offs and small runs of pure racers had ended. Additionally, Ferrari published annual production figures making the job easier. The FIAT-era cars started in mid-1973 with s/n 17185, the first 365 BBs, up to s/n 75000 (a white 1987 Testarossa) using odd serial numbers only, or about 28,900 cars. From s/n 75001 onward both odd and even numbers were used, with the FIAT-era ending during the overlap of the last 348, s/n 99934 or the first of the 355s, starting with s/n 98395. Using s/n 98395 as the dividing line for the first of the Montezemolo era cars, the FIAT-era Ferraris ended their production run using every s/n from 75001 to 98395 or another 23,394 Ferraris. Adding 28,900 and 23,394 we get some number around 52,000 FIAT-era Ferraris. Add in the 208-308 GT4s with 3,666 cars built plus the F1 cars, from the 312 B3s through to the 640 gives us another 80 or so F1 cars for a total of about 55,750 FIAT-era Ferraris.

Montezemolo's revenge

The Montezemolo-era brought Ferrari into the world of mass production starting in 1991 with 355 s/n 98395, and as of today, April, 2013, the most current VINs are in the 1946XX s/n range, for a total of about 96,000 Montezemolo-era Ferraris built to date. Ferrari has ramped up production from 4,487 cars in 1991 to over 7,381 cars in 2012, and will undoubtedly go to 10,000 cars a year as the world economy revives. Alas both word-count constraints and the need to sell a few older Ferraris to keep the lupine pest from the portals dictates that tracking each and every one of these cars is not for the faint of heart or possible in this column.

Fortunately for hard-core trainspotters, "the source" of newer Ferrari information is a fastidiously well-researched book, "Handbuch der Ferrari Seriennummern" by Matthias Urban, written in both English and German (in the same book). With 980 pages of fine print plus a 350 page supplement covering serial numbers from 001 up through s/n 194614, an F12 Berlinetta, Matthias lists not only the car built, but the cars not built. For those truly into the most arcane trainspotting, the book is a must-have. Contact Matthias at [email protected]

All of this leads us back to the original question of the collectability of the newer cars versus the numbers built. As an example of Ferrari's business success and sheer volume, total 360 Modena production is around 16,000 to 18,000 including the Challenge Stradale with around 1,288 "official" units. An educated guess on the 430s is in the 13,000 to 15,000 units, excluding the Scuds and 16Ms. Add in the Scuds and 16Ms gets one back to 15,500 to 17,500. Chasing down 15,000 to 17,500 F430s is impossible unless one has direct access to Ferrari's production database. I don't have that luxury so any guess is merely an educated one. For this academic exercise in a reasonably well-documented example of the true number of Montezemolo-era Ferraris built we first considered the recent 599 GTO with Ferrari's claimed 599 cars built or the 599 SA Aperta, Ferrari's latest very-limited production 599 chop-top, with only 80 claimed as built. Obviously the math dictates that tracking the Apertas, with a claimed 80 cars built is numerically easier than tracking the 599 GTO with a claimed 599 cars built.

What price exclusivity

The 599 GTO was introduced in April, 2010 as a limited-production road-going version of the 599XX with only 599 examples to be built and as only the second road-going Ferrari to carry the revered GTO suffix. Window sticker started at $426,843 plus lots of high-dollar options. The drop-top 599 SA Aperta was introduced shortly after in Oct., 2010, at the Paris Auto show with a Japanese market Aperta s/n 171212 in honor of designers Sergio and Andrea Pininfarina. Only 80 examples were to be built. Window sticker started at $456,000. Alas both the 599 GTO and 599 SA Aperta are merely the latest examples of Ferrari spiffing up a model before they are retired. Just as the 550 Barchetta was simply a 550 with a not-too successful chop job, the 575 Superamerica was merely a 575 with a recalcitrant electronic folding top. While both have depreciated to be good buys today, neither was a good investment for the first buyer. I opine the 599 GTO and 599 SA Aperta, with its dysfunctional top, will do the same and slowly depreciate as do almost all modern Ferraris.


599 SA Aperta

The Apertas were sold to very wealthy and very low-profile Ferrari owners who own all the latest-greatest Ferraris. Most do not own the older Ferraris which are more often tracked and rarely go to Ferrari-related shows or events. One can only take a guess at how many Apertas have gone to ultra-wealthy Chinese, or Japanese, or Koreans, or South Americans, or Russians, or middle-Easterners, all far off the usual radar screens. The Sultan of Brunei, for example, was buying the latest-greatest of anything in groups of five, so he will have at least one Aperta, if not more, far off the radar screens.

So how many Apertas

In 2011 our group had only 30 Apertas identified by serial number but by Jan., of 2012 that number had grown to 66 confirmed. By May 2012 we had enough Apertas spotted for me to mention in a column, Ferraris and the Euro that we then had 74 Apertas confirmed by serial number and another 30 or so spotted by trainspotting members of our Historian's group. Two angry Aperta owners e-mailed me in response to the column. When checked, one of those Apertas was already in our database, one was not, adding another Aperta to the slowly-growing list. As of late April, 2013 we have 90 Apertas confirmed by serial number and another 30 or so spotted, some of which might be duplicates of confirmed cars so the guess is that the total number of Apertas will eventually prove to be in the 120 to 130 or more Apertas built. The 90 Apertas documented does not include the prototype, which amusingly carries the same serial number as a US model California Spyder. In the last few months several well-placed sources have confirmed that production was raised to 120 while still in production, with more probably built as production wound down. So much for the 80 car exclusivity.

We continue the Geek-Fest of analysis

As yet another obsessive-compulsive point of analysis, the US-Market normally takes about 27% of Ferrari's worldwide production with peaks (above 40% in 1999) and drops (below 10% in 1996 and 1993). Both might be related to statistical errors, insufficient data or a "wrong" way of counting as the US-cars are marked as the new model year from the middle of the actual year but seem to be counted by the Factory as a car from production of the actual year. Furthermore, Americans are eager buyers of the limited series Ferraris, often more than European buyers. Checking by individual models the "fitting 27%-rule" usually applies.

Going through the Montezemolo-era "Specials" we have the following examples: 550 Barchetta, 460 produced (incl. prototypes), 135 to the US = 29.35% of the production, more or less in line with the "27%-rule". Enzo, about 440 produced (incl. pre- and post-production), 119 to the US = 27.05% of the production, again more or less in line with the "27%-rule". Challenge Stradale, 1,274 produced, 365 to the US = 28.65% of the production, again more or less in line with the "27%-rule". 575 Superamerica, 559 produced, 214 to the US = 38.28% of the production, more than the regular figures, but no surprise as Ferrari's marketing efforts had the American market in focus. Going to the 16M, 499 produced, 224 to the US = 44.89% of the production, more than the regular figures but the official number of 499 is probably far too low and is probably more than 700 cars. 599 GTO, 599 supposedly produced, 166 known to the US = 27.71% of the production, more or less in line with regular figures.

Last but not least in this analysis, the SA Aperta, with 120 or more produced to our knowledge, 45 of those known to the US, makes 37.50% of the production, so possibly another "catcher" with the "American Brand". Both time and the 27% rule will tell how far final production exceeded 120 cars.

The miracle of depreciation

I will admit that every time I drive a 430, a 612 or 599 I'm awed at the sophistication and performance. Using the 599 as our example, the first few 2007 US model 599s sold for $150k to $175k over window sticker, so $450k-$475k. Thanks to the miracle of depreciation those same 2007 599s are today well under $200k and usually have less than 10k miles, offering a lot of car on today's market. With a 0-60 time of 3.7 seconds and a top speed of 205 mph I've never found an open stretch of highway long enough, or clear enough, to begin to unwind a 599 to anywhere near its potential. My first drive in a 599 was on a lonely stretch of the 73 Freeway with only a few cars mere specks in the distance. A quick twenty-second flat-out run through the upper gears was like the scene in Star Wars when the Millennium Falcon goes into Hyperspace as the once-distant specks suddenly raced towards me, seemingly in reverse. Bottom line, the extreme performance of the latest and greatest Ferraris is simply not usable in the real world and far exceeds the skill set of the average driver. The question, of course, is other than the pride-of-ownership from having your car parked in front of the best restaurants, where can one really use their potential? Needless to say the latest-greatest F12 with 729 hp and a 0-60 time of 3.1 seconds is even faster at 211 mph! Enjoy the ride….



Thanks to Stan Nowak and Gerald Roush for their inspiration decades ago and to Matthias Urban, Victor Gaillard and Matthias Kierse, Aperta spotters, and to the hard-core members of Ferrari Historians. We welcome any feedback, corrections or additions from any and all Aperta owners or spotters.





My regards.



M. Sheehan.


Copyright - Michael Sheehan's Ferraris-online.com.

 

Is the "historian group" he refers to, Telaio?

 

Please don't quote the entire article.

Production numbers exceeding official numbers is an open secret. I thought the Sultan of Brunei had curtailed his buying.

 

His theories have some validity, but are maybe to simplistic and dont take into acount what has happened with some later cars, like the 288 f40 boxer 308 glass even 328.

Also Enzo was aparently involved in road car development well into the 80's.

What drives value and collectability are age beauty performance rarity and to some extent useability. There is also the subject of deriability which changes with tastes in different eras and ability to use.

The more modern the ferrari the less age and rarity it will have, also many newer ones lack beauty, none of which means there are not some gems and collectable ones, or that the Enzo era is a solid line of demarcation. All enzo cars are collectable today, but that was not always so, time has a habbit. Not all newer ones will become collectable because most are mass produced series car, but as we see with muscle cars, some special version of mass produced cars are collectable.

A perfect example of why the so called ENZO era is an arbritrary line in the sand is the unquestioned collectability of the 288 and F40 clearly "FIAT" era cars, having beauty, useability and rarity. The F40 performs better than the 288 but is less rare, less useable or beautiful so is worth less. You might say these are specials, but we see 308 glass drysumps being collectable too. Point is its the nature of the machine and production numbers that is the biggestd river of collectability.

We have the collectability of Dinos which are produced in vast numbers, but have age beauty and useability, plus are desieable today.. Then we have daytonas which have age beauty performance are rare but not so rare compared to their v12 predecessors and suffer on the useability scale in the modern world, being heavy at lower speeds and designed to run on big open roads at speed, something hard to find today.

The boxer is finally starting to hit stride, less rare than a daytona but still relatively low production numbers, age is finaly there, beauty, performance is useable in a run with moderns, but its hard to drive compared to a Dino. the Boxer is the last of the non mass produced ferraris.

That pretty much explains collectability values of most near moderns.

There is one other category of near moderns/moderns to consider and that is limited production of "special" cars within a long series production run.

For example lets look at the 308 series. Two of series are collectable already. We know a drysump glass 308 is collectable. It ticks all the boxes. Rare, beautiful, great performance, useable and age, maybe not yet fully in the desireabilty camp. Yes its values can get held back because its similar in looks to other lesser 308's, otherwise it would be worth more than a dino, but its definatly collectable and useable.

Regular 308's suffer because they are numous in the extreme and untill the QV had no real performance. Just like older mustangs one day their number will be low enough to be somewheat collectable but that is a ways off and not relevant now.

We also have the 328, its useabale not produced in too vastnumbers beautifult etc. In fact its the very beauty of the 308 series cars cupled witht he useability and relative rarity that keeps a great 328 as a 70+k car. Like the glass 308, their relative values are not going down

The mondial TR and 348, are generally not considered beautiful, or rare but they are useable if you can justify the expense. In thats sense they are like most modern ferraris, pretty much expensive flashy used cars that are fun to drive.

We see that some TR models like the 512 Tr and M have higher values and in the case of the m are already collectable beng rare with great performance if not beautiful. Lets say these are "special" cars withing the vast TR production run and there relative rarity and greater performance will make them collectable in time if not already.

We also have one last factor of useability. Many hotter ferraris are not great for everyday use. Are there events to which you can run your near older ferrari. The Daytona suffers not being really old enough, trackable etc. Dinos dont matter because they can be used as runabouts. Boxers have the strengths of the daytona but can be tossed about on tight twisty roads with moderns. Same with drysump 308's which are also trackable. If you were doing the mountain mille, which one would you take, a 308 drysump, boxer and or 288. In truth they all fit its just a function of budget.

On to the moderns. If a 308 drysump and a 328 are worth money being "special" version of series cars can a stradale scud and 16m not also be collectable. They may lack a bit in the beauty department, they certainly are special and relatively rare, as to useability they are eminanently trackable which is a form of useability very relevant in the modern era.
Of those I woudl say the 16m is the mosy unique and rare.

What about the baracheta you might say. Well a barachetta is rare, but does it have any of the other attributes. The supermerica fetches more because its useable, in fact the supermerica is strangly valuable. Over time though I think the barachetta with its simplicity will overtake the supermeica.

The barachetta and supermirca along with the 599 GTO may also be cars that fall into a third category, That of the cynical marketing special, ala pace car vette.

POint is there are a number of cars amongst the near moderns and moderns that are collectable or will become so. My list is not necessarily entirely correct, time will tell. But one thing for sure, a boom was not dropped in 69 with all cars after that suddey being mas produced used cars. True nearly every 250 series car is now collectable, and maybe every later car wont be, but a number definitly will, we see that already. Lets face it, if you are a serious connisuer of ferraris your collection is not complete without say a 308, of of that there are only two to have. In time the next generation will want 360's thats what they grew up with, and the soecial rare 360 will be the one to collect, ie the scud, just like a gt350 mustang is the one to collect. That a scud will still be fun on a track will only enhance its value. Same with the stradale and 16m, a stick 430 will be hailed as the last of the real ferraris. Its just a function of time.

But if you only have a 5-10 year horizon and not unlimited funds then Go Boxer 308 drysump, maybe 328, none of these is going down. trick is finding a good one and knowing how to keep it, but was that not always the case.

 

... and none of this matters, or should matter, to us.

The cars he hates we love to drive. Sorry, I think the priorities are upside down unless it's money you care about.

 

The specials such as the 288 GTO, F40, F50, Enzo, 550 Barchetta, 575 SuperAmerica, Challenge Stradale, 16M, Scuderia, SA Aperta, and 599 GTO do have rarity on their side and have the potential to become very collectable in the future as their numbers can be compared to some of the Enzo Era Production cars. However, some of these models' collectability may be limited by their similarity to the models they are based on made in high numbers.

 

He forgets or doesnt realize that the pool of Ferrari buyers/enthusiasts/speculators is also much bigger than the Enzo years.

 

true

 

Why were the two Aperta owners that wrote him "mad", that they were "noticed and documented" or that they were not??



It was one of each....

 

I would say that statistically, it is......but maybe some of them are buying Lambos and McLarens??

 

Miurasv

Thanks for posting.

The performance of the 458 spider is also beyond my capabilities and everyday driving conditions. I have rarely floored the gas pedal...you can get enough thrills and illegal speeds at half throttle IMVHO.

At 2500 miles the car has been very reliable and extremely predictable. Best cornering car I have ever driven. Better than our 2011 Boxster S. The grip is unbelievable. Road & Track shows 1.01 Gs on the skidpad. And I believe it.

 

Funny to claim that a Dino is an Enzo era car and not a Fiat era...and that is not an insult to either the car or era! The attempt to draw a line in the sand is only for marketing purposes.

 

Sadly, it appears that for the majority of Ferrari owners, the fact that they have the money to afford a Ferrari means they place a high priority on money in the first place meaning it's difficult to separate the two.

I'm with you, I bought the Ferrari I wanted and future values and maintenance costs be damned. I don't plan on selling it and if I did, the experience will be worth a lot more than whatever the total cost ends up being. If people viewed these cars as a completely sunk cost and put black tape over the odometer, their ownership experience would be 10x as enjoyable.

 

Same with the Daytona. The vast majority of that car's production was post-FIAT.

 

telaio = chassis

MS conveniently ignores a long list of cars (Porsche 356 + 911, Jag XKEs, early Mustangs - over 2 million built!! - and Camaros, 55/56/57 Chevys, etc.) that were built in far greater numbers than any Ferrari model and that have become collectible.

The Dinos and Daytonas were designed in the Enzo era and therefore belong in that category.

 

I think that is his point. When talking money, ultimately the classics are the only ones that will compare to art as an investment. The newer cars are great drivers and should be enjoyed as cars, not investments. Except for the unique supercars, the rest of the post-Enzo cars are going to drop in value fast, and at best will eventually return to their original MSRP uncorrected for inflation. So drive them! It is silly when you see a 10 year old Ferrari sold with less than three thousand miles on them.

 

Exactly. This is his business, he has to worry about money. We can enjoy the cars without worrying about money.

 

A 308glass will exceed its msrp adjusted for inflation, a 328 is not going down and a boxer is up 25% in the last 18 months. All 3 of these are not unique supercars and will continue to appreciate now as art.

All the classics went through a period of depreciation down to almost nothing, that is why a 250swb was 5k in 1970. The question is which ones might rise. True most of the moderns ares eries mass produced cars so have little upside or collectability. Witin those though there were some special ones that well may. Certainly a 16m.

 

Isn't he the guy who said the FIAT era cars on could never be collectable, then modified this to take into account the meteoric rise of the 288.

Isn't he also the guy who said boxers were sale proof yet just sold a Bb in a week for 137k proving A0 That BB prices have risin and B) that there is good deamnd for BBs now.

Times and tastes change. Remember when a daytona was a 250k car and a miura stuck at 85K. Not so long ago that aLusso was sale proof. If its a great car subjectively, looks great, is highly regarded in period and there were not too many it will become collectable.

Lots more people want to collect ferraris these days, those with less than 1 mill to spend are going to look at daytonas dinos and boxers. After that will come the special 308's, then maybe the 512 M's after that the special 360s and 430's.

Even those seasoned collecteors want to add the seminal cars to their collection, aka boxer Dino and glass 308. Conniseurs aprreciate things for what they are, and this drives a market for others.

 

Of course there will be exceptions, but none of those are likely to reach the prices of the 250s or probably even the 365s. Adjusted for inflation, only the most virgin and perfectly maintained Vertroresina reaches its MSRP, although they are the few might one day rocket like the Dinos are.

 

A lot of cars are being driven up in price by a very hot market. Not all will sustain the current level of interest over the long run.

 

his dates are wonky. my 348 ts was a 92. the 355 didnt come out till after the 348's were done as far as i know.

 

The Boxer is held back by an overcomplicated system that requires high maintenance; two alternators because of the huge electrical needs of a poorly designed system. The injected model should have cured carb problems but the advance is finnicky and progression can be thousands to cure not to mention the weak plastic bushing parts in the distributor. Changing belts is costly and expensive for the engine out servicing and do be aware that the dreaded diff carrier failure of the TR comes from the boxer history. Cosmeticaly they're a nightmare too - dash pulling back is very common

The Boxer pricing is correct for the market as you'll pay dearly to sort the problems out on a used purchase

Daytonas were never considered a lovely looking Ferrari, they don't even come close to the balance of a 275

 

I know all about the boxer issues, i have one. But then an older carb car has its issues too as a number of owners have told me, and thye costs serious $$$ to get running right too.

I agree Boxer pricing is correct, its also significantly up, and at a certain point its operating or sorting costs will be a relatively insisgnificant expediture compared to the whole, just like a 288 or any 275 you care to mention. I can also say that just like a carbed car, once a boxer is sorted you have agood 8-10 year run with no issues.

To me the daytona is more beautiful than the 275 cars. Although a 275 GTc is really awesome with its understated looks and great drive.

Still if a miura which spent its life int he shadow of a daytone is now a 1 mill car, then a boxer which is no more complex and a better drive can eclipse a daytona.

Anyway back in period untill fairly recently a miura was considered less than a Daytone, noe its more than double. tastes change the pool of available older cars is static.

Point is that tastes and desires change and evolve. The it car now is a dino. There are only so many older tytpe ferraris, they all become collectable with time, some more so than others depending ont he tasts of the time. Hence a 330 gtc being more than a daytona..

 

What I think Sheehan is saying is that these cars are not investments, which is okay to admit if you are talking with some good car buddies. But when talking with she who must be obeyed, "Yes honey, buying a Ferrari is a good as owning a diamond mine! BTW, I've been thinking about buying you a new ring as an "investment."

Dale