is the bubble due to burst?

Well said Andrew. 100% correct as always...

 

Why did the world pick on Ferrari as the investment tool of the century......It didn't use to be like this prior to the late 1980's bubble. I so wish we could turn the clock back and enjoy these cars for what they are and at an affordable price........Please can someone market something to attract all these 'clever' investors so they put their money somewhere else......

 

Once burned twice shy?

Dumb money ruins any market it seems.

 

Talking a Ferrari main dealer at Goodwood last weekend, he reckoned biggest problem was new buyers not keeping their cars. People are buying them and then only keeping them for a couple of months before trying to move them on. Sure sign of speculators getting burnt?

 

Ferrari's attempts at trying to build exclusivity and create demand by only selling specific cars to "special" repeat customers creates a market for speculators who will get the car and then sell it off for at or near what the bought it for after enjoying it for a few months. After demand has been filled, those speculators will find that the car is depreciating and costing them money and will want out.

 

Funny and depressing at the same time. Some of it is over the top, but seems more right than wrong.

 

Agree. It's because owning a new one has ceased to be as attractive as it once was. They are very expensive, they are really too fast to enjoy, they have changed the driving experience with paddles, electronics, etc., and the tasteless marketing has turned off many. I wouldn't trade the newest whatever for my lowly 308.

 

The fact that 308s are still lowly is because most of their owners still are. most of them saved/worked hard to realize their childhood dream.

Imagine what the current, let's say, Dino owners experienced. 10 years ago they just took their cars for a spin on a weekend trip enjoying life. Now I could imagine that part of that fun is gone due to the fact that their cars are now so valuable and new owners are a totally different brand.

I do fear that this will happen to the 308 ( in a lesser extent) and that this will actually spoil part of the driving fun.

 

I'd like to think that it wouldn't but give the experiences of some sixties era machines I suspect its inevitable. Assuming they do appreciate.

 

Cutting production has Absolutely nothing to do with vintage/classic Ferraris which is the subject of this thread. Classic Ferrari cars have never been rosier - ever. That's for many reasons, and none of them have anything to do with new car sales or new car production.

Anyway Look what Rolls Royce did , switching their market target. New Ferrari buyers, as new Bugatti owners , have not dialed into Vintage / classic Sportscars - yet. The market is defining itself now. Only 5% of all new Bugatti owners own classic Bugattis. Although I remember Jerry J. Moore trying to corner the F40 market. He said to me, I will buy all 200 cars. That was fine until they decided he was an active buyer..... and the best client ! I can not see new Ferraris being worth an investment, when they outdate themselves yearly - and cost a lot, are a risk now to drive - both in the Italian fiscal chasing and speed cameras. I saw 18 new Veyron's in storage a few months back - all new - go figure that investment. The guy could have bought 5 good GP cars, and made 15% a year, or all the exisiting 250GTE/330GTE ! . Now he's changing fuel cells.

One thing that can be agreed - Ferrari is the brand of choice now for vintage sportscars.

 

I can send him five gallons anytime he wants it!

 

I think that, in the very long run, 308's will appreciate. The mid-engine V8's drive very differently from the vintage V12's. They are very different, but there are characteristics about each that are very endearing in their own way. The best of both worlds, for enthusiasts that drive them, should be to own both. The flaw in my logic is that I rarely see vintage V12 owners that also own early V8's -- it seems to be "either or" -- but maybe that will change in the long run.

Regardless of the above, I feel that in the long term, the early 308's will be looked back upon as the purest form of the V8 experience and they will become more of a direct target as vintage V12's become less accessible.

 

A while back an exGTO owner suggested a 308 as a great first Ferrari so there is some respect.

 

Very interesting thread!

With so many competing market forces, things seem inherently unpredictable and can/will be counter-intuitive.

I don't buy the idea that pure investors are getting into vintage Ferraris. Clearly, you need to be a real petrolhead to buy an old Ferrari. Surely this HAS to strongly limit the potential speculation and associated bubble.

Anyway, even if it is a bubble which might burst, I don't mind all that much, because I'm mostly in it for the inherent pleasure of ownership.

I'm looking to buy a 365 GT 2+2. Although they have been rising nicely (not like the blue chip models, but apreciating nonetheless), I'm not buying to flip. I'm buying to hold long term. VERY long term.

Furthermore, while the 2-seater V12 prices are now very far removed from the cars' intrinsic utility/enjoyment values, this isn't the case with a car like the 365 GT 2+2 or 365 GTC/4 or 330 GT, for example.

For me, the intrinsic enjoyment / ownership value of a 365 GT 2+2 is maybe about 70% of the current market value. So I'm paying a premium of about 30% over and above the inherent enjoyment value for what I believe is at least the assurance of zero depreciation, and the very real possibility apreciation that pays for running costs.

I'm at ease with that equation and I'm open to making a loss if I'm wrong and want to sell one day.

I would be much less at ease with a 275 GTB or 250 Lusso for example, cars whose market price is far removed from the inherent enjoyment / utility value.

Does a Lusso give TEN times more enjoyment than a GTC/4? Of course not (for me at least). Which means that a large fraction of the Lusso's market price is a consequence of anticipated future profits. Hence the risk in purchasing one...

I would be interested to have my views challenged, as I'm new to the classic Ferrari community (although have a lifelong interest in these automotive deities).

 

Since your interested in having your views challenged- I will take a shot at it
Firstly your first point and third point contradict each other. Secondly I the 275 GTB and 250 Lusso are among the most beautiful cars to look at (Lusso) and to drive (275 GTB) and their current value simply reflects that. Thirdly, Lussos market price has nothing to do with future profits of where prices will go (classic cars do not function like financial markets).

If your really in buying a vintage Ferrari for the pure pleasure of ownership you will be happy with whatever you buy- don't worry about what it costs (as long as you can afford it)

 

I believe 308 values will surprise us one day.

 

I know several vintage V12 owners that either had, or still have a 308, and love them. Don't forget JG's 208 Turbo as well. Personally, as an ex-Boxer, ex-330GTC, current 550 and current 458 owner, I have always had a craving for a good 308GTB.

If you know how to drive a classic, and enjoy it, it is very hard for me to see why you would not like the 308 purely viewed as the car it is. Whether you like the image it has (especially in the US), i.e. the Ferrari for people who can't afford Ferraris, the Magnum car, yadayada, is a different matter.

But their star is certainly rising.


Onno

 

intrinsic utility/enjoyment values is a subject someone can have when you are on a budget. That theroy is moot really. Have 308 or 365 2+2 money as a limit? No need to think about a Lusso. Each owner has a different limit of what he can afford. I’d say most Ferrari buyers of vintage cars are motor heads, money apart. I doubt new comers to the GTO market are motor heads or use the words intrinsic, utility or enjoyment value. The ratios of 10 times the fun for the money doesn’t facture to a guy buying a 4M Ferrari, or a 16M Ferrari, what is the ''real-debt'' service on 52M ? Fun depends on who is sitting next to you in the car, and if you’re really having fun. I know a GTO owner that can not possibly have fun, it's in his DNA not to. If you think a 365GT 2/2 will rise in value to support long term growth, good luck. I see more value in pre-1965 cars, even quad-eye 330GT’s are looking better now. A 365 Gt 2/2 is not the same animal as a Lusso, and rightfully so. I am not sure great Ferrari’s are bought for anticipated future profits, it’s just purchasing a neat thing with your money, as you decide to treat yourself, park money or re-form your belief in the new fiscal world. The bigger the investment in a Ferrari, the more you could loose by making the wrong purchase, at the wrong time, advised by the wrong expert , paying to many brokers and middle men, buying at auction or worst. On 250 GTO’s ; I can’t imagine why the 39 GTO’s are so valuable, other than it’s a bucket list car for want- to- be people with that type of parking money. It’s likely wanting to join a social club with a bunch of guys you would think you have something in common with, beside the car , and find out you have no time to know them. I can imagine how that would work ! Ha ! I imagine membership at that cost would have one highest reward in hoping you can sell and make a profit to the next new comer wannabee. Like musical chairs. Usually members of such clubs have seen it all, done it all, never listen and are waiting to tell you what else they own between phone calls. Boring.....just a 5 min rant.

 

[ I see more value in pre-1965 cars, even quad-eye 330GT’s are looking better now. [/QUOTE]

especially when I squint...

 

Oh I hope not.


Nothing worse for a car or a person than to be "discovered".

 

I hope not but it will.

Soon a 308 will be considered every bit a Vintage Ferrari as the rest of them. As time passes I believe the Enzo era cars will be the Enzo era cars.

I always found it a bit snob-ish at FCA meets when 308's seemed to be shunned.

I believe 308's did more to make Ferrari the brand it is then any other car they've made.

I may be wrong?

But more people know Ferrari from 308's then will ever even hear about a 52 million dollar GTO. Or even know what a GTO is.

I think to the general American public over 20. 308's are the iconic Ferrari.

 

You're absolutely correct on all counts.

Which is why I love a blue GT4. Few recognize it as a Ferrari and those that do, for the most part, don't appreciate it.

 

I believe the 3rd Ferrari I ever saw was a yellow GT4 with either white or light tan interior.

Always liked them. Wonder what will happen when the herd thins to keep the herd alive. How many years will go by before someone says "ya know, there's not alot of these Gt4's left...

I think advancement's in vehicle propulsion will turn gas cars into something more collectable wise then we see them now.

 

No disrespect to 308 owners but you can buy a 308 in the low 20s now.