is the bubble due to burst?

Agree with a lot of your thoughts, but please explain the above. If I'm reading this correctly you are saying gas as we know it will no longer be available in 15 years. That would mean that every gas operated "thing", cars, motorcycles, lawn mowers, chain saws, airplanes etc that are in current use today will have no value in 15 years because we can't get gas for it?

 

Isn't money market on high principal accounts around 1 - 1.1%? 4-7% are pipe-dreams unless you're taking more risk or tapping into principal?

 

Yes, money markets and any other "safe" investment are crazy low right now and have been for a long time. This is undoubtedly a factor pushing investment in rare assets (probably both individually and through funds).

 

some random stats from the internet....

during Bush admin... millionaires increased from 6.3 to 9.2 million

...2.3 million new millionaires were created between 2008 and 2012, this year the number is expected to be increased by at least 200,000 or more,,,

...top 10 US billionaires had their wealth increase by 101.8 billion...

regardless of how they arrived at those stats... there is a pant load of buying power waiting to be spent... that is within the US... the rest of the world had similar results...

the number of buyers with resources is huge, while the supply of desirable collectibles is relatively small, leaving many hopeful collectors stranded in a que

 

U.S. foresees gas-powered vehicles dominating through 2040 | The Detroit News

"Washington — – The Energy Department is predicting gasoline-powered vehicles will continue to dominate the market through 2040."

"The agency predicts that in 2040, 78 percent of all cars and trucks will run on gasoline, down from 82 percent last year. It predicts a big upswing in micro-hybrids and other advanced fuel technologies to 42 percent of all vehicles by 2040. EIA predicts full hybrids will account for 5 percent of vehicles in 2040 — up from 3 percent today. Diesel vehicles will double to 4 percent from the current 2 percent.

It predicts just 1 percent of total sales will be plug-in hybrids and 1 percent full electric vehicles in 2040."

 

just heard a statistic about the value of cars sold last year in the US auctions... It was an interview with Hagerty CEO of the insurance co, recapping last years sales at
$ 1,200,000,000.00... the current car auction year is off to a strong start with all indication that is will be another record year... car values are making record highs

 

(Whoops I screwed up the original quote...)

Sure you will....

But it will be about $16/gallon.

 

depends on who's talking... the pro fossil fuel groups say that there is enough fuel supply for well into the next century using current technology to recover ...

putting a future price on fuel is meaningless. current prices are about 25 times what they were 50 years ago... it's not about what the raw number makes the price, but rather what that number represents in terms of what it will buy... someone released a stat that there were 52 million new millionaires added to the US population... all that means is US currency will have a lot more zeros on the notes as we spend them...

there is an upside... take on debt and pay it back with cheaper dollars as the notes we get will have more zeros...

 

I can only find back 1426 billionaires... (in $)

 

Talk to someone about real estate in 2006.

The auction houses are self serving pushers of this idea. They get you going up and going down. The more people who play in the game, the better it is for them.

 

I'm not sure I understand the statement shown above about adding 52M new Millionaires. The US population is ~320M, are you suggesting that 1 person in 6 has a net worth above $1M? Wikipedia states that as of 2008 the total population of Millionaires worldwide is 10M. I think your source is off by just a little. . .

Millionaire - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

52M = 52,000 where M=1000... as it has for the past few thousand years... Wikipedia has only been around for the last few years, does not mean it is correct and isoften fraught with errors...I'll stick with the Roman numerals... the US population is greater than 320,000 :=) ...my error on using the word million after the M ( I will have a word with my fingers for the typo )

those that do graphics and "crawlers" for TV have created new abreviations for lots of things out of thin air from sleeping their hangovers off while in school... which are finding their way into society

 

Well the k as in 1000 came from Greek, so before the M of the Romans. I wonder how you designate a computer in Roman numerals

 

the English script ( k, m, g, t ) is derived Roman or Latin script although the script values are derived from the greek :=)

 

There are a significant number of great Companies with long histories of dividend payment that are presently paying annual dividends of 3-4% of their present stock prices. their stock prices could drop in a market decline but with their histories if one is a long-term holder it won't matter.

 

somebody screwed the number system up when the Romans decided to use M for 1000...
are there some lions that are hungry ? :=)

 

Another year before the music stops?
It isn't like 2007/8 when loose money came to an end, seems these buyers are paying with cash.
I fear it is more an inflation hedge...

 

I think more than a year. Money is cheap. Government is giving away money. Stock market is strong based on "nothing". This is all going to come crashing down. The few Ferraris like the recent Nart that was sold will always be strong but regular vintage will come down. Look at Europe and the Chinese economy. Poor. America's is strong but based on what ? I think in 3 to 5 years things will normalize. Look at the Dow today. Down 200 based on reality. Just my 2 cents.

 

I think the majority of us agree the market has had an amazing run up.
I think a lot of us agree that many of the new owners are investor rather than collectors.

My thinking - just say the market stabilises at these lofty levels, just say it plateaus out and runs flat for a year.....

All the investors I know don't like flat performance, they invest for out-performance. If the market stabilises just by the nature of many of the new owners/investors they will look to sell their asset and look for the next asset class to invest in. So my feeling is, even if the market stabilises it will cause selling pressure, if the demand is removed and it becomes supply, the market is only going one direction - down!

Of course this may not happen and the market may continue to out-perform all other asset classes.

I do believe special cars, historic racers etc will always maintain a significant premium, as they deserve. Obviously regular vintage Ferrari's will be the first to react.

cheers
Mark

 

There is only one rule and that is MARKETS DO NOT GO ONE WAY FOR EVER....and that is the one rule.

Rising prices will stop, the market will calm down, prices may fall they may not, prices may go up again. As for picking the timing, that is the hardest thing of all, pretty much impossible.

This is my theory and can be applied to any and all financial/investment instrument. And collector cars!

 

IMO-as the aging demographics of "Boomers" ages, the driving thiorst for these will wane...as has the demographics who drove the market for prewar "ground pounders" back in the 70s and before...most are too young to remem,ber the disparity in equivalent valuations between a Special Sport Roaster 540K(ski jump back tail;s), and a GTO
1978 Bud Cohn's car sold at auction for 440K plus fees(?) at a time when you could buy a good to great GTO for at or well under 100K
Tjhese guys had the money at the time, their tatses were for the "classics" and supply/demand rules prevail-clerarly...
As this generatio has died off, the "memories" of these cars is just not there-it is limited to black and white pictures and grainy newsreel footage, at best...

The electronics and finance wealth generated in the last quarter of a century is all "new: money and mostly ALL by post WW2 born individuals...THEY are the buyers, and they are buying what THEY "remember" or lusted for in the minds eye of their own memory.

As we all age-and every week I hear of a childhood accquaintance who has recently succumbed to god know's what horrible affliction of the aging process-but none the les, WE are starting to die off as weel, as we all will...

The kids of the 1980s who grew up with a white Countach in the stero ad poster-these are the code writers at Google, VM ware, Cisco, Juniper, yaddda yadda yadda....THEY lokk at things like Baqrchettas, and TdFs and think they are "upside down canoes" and who in their right mind would pay THAT kind of money for that old terd, when you can have an Enze, or FXX, or whatever, with all the cool new metal and carbon, and CAN networks with bluetooth...
I think I have made my point?....they will have the mponey in 10-20 yrs, and a Countach may well hit 10 million, but a 250 TR hitting 100mil, welll nNOT with that demographic-there is NO driving force ouside the economic ones, and as we deie, the supply/demand critiqe will be demonstrated quite clearly I suspect...

Beauty-as is inherent value-in the eye of the beholder-this demand enters as a nvariable with supply stoilting values....worm food doesnt drive anything but worms...