is the bubble due to burst?

CORRECT.

 

If I recall correctly Ferrari built about 6,500 cars TOTAL from founding to 1972, what I consider the "vintage" years. Taking out say a 20% destruction factor that leaves 5.200 cars in circulation. Given the well publicized growth of millionaires around the world over the last 10 years I am not surprised that vintage Ferrari prices have moved higher. In addition,
they are beautiful to look at and even more of a pleasure to drive......unlike a painting , stamp, or coin. Just my 2 cents ;>)

 

Bubble or not, the upside is it now makes sense to perfectly retsore lot of formerly ropey cars.
Look at maser 3500's they were 50k cars and very few in great shape, now they are all getting the necessary money spent. Look at DBS astons. In fact look back further in time, how many rusty dinos got saved when prices ran up in the late 80's.

 

Take a gander over at the Porsche sub-forum. A '75 right hand drive Turbo Carrera in unique color but needing total restoration sold last summer for $175K. Today and last week, a pair of '79 3.3L cars sold for a speculated $180K, low miles originals, but still. These early turbos were poor stepchildren for a decade, now the Hagerty graph has them up ~30-40% in one year.

 

indeed......my '67 S was up 211% last year but to me has been undervalued forever

Price Guide Report

 

an element that past bubbles shared was the availability of credit to buoy ever higher prices... current world markets share a lack of available credit in all areas...market corrections or pull backs have nothing to do with bubbles, but rather a change in sentiment for the values being offered...

 

Impossible to predict, but the 911 seems to be leading the bubble brigade. High production and not art like Pininfarina cars IMO.

 

no bubble, the population of early 911 produced in the 50 years or so has been decimated to where only very few original or unmolested cars survive... allowing them to demand lofty prices... all currencies have lost their purchasing power, the lofty numbers represent loss in value they once represented, essentially "chump change" to those paying the big numbers... markets can move lower which will only show up as "smaller entries" in the ledger... an element of panic to liquidate must be present for a bubble to burst

 

The hot market right now is in Maserati GT cars. They are rapidly filling the void left by the escalating Ferrari, Aston, Lamborghini prices.

 

Can't speak to the broader 911 space, but one area, the earliest 911 turbos, actually '930' cars especially the '75s, but also the '76-'77s are rocketing in value. IMO, long overdue: the first Turbo was a true milestone car of epic proportions, stylistically, technologically. It was a giant relative to it's mid-seventies peers, and the homologation basis for an entire generation of outrageously successful racecars. Finally, there aren't many left: US production of '76s was only mid 500s. Assuming 30% attrition (given the car's 'widowmaker' reputation, could be higher!) that is a genuinely rare model run. Seeing them now in the $100-150K range seems appropriate given their place in the sports car canon, and I'd bet they go much higher.

 

I was checking the history of a 275GTB/4 currently for sale. Car sold in 1987 for 200K usd, in 1988 for 4 times this ie 800k and in 1989 for 1.2 MUSD. So 6X in 2 years this is what I would call a bubble. Even if 30-40 pc per annum is high, this has nothing to do with multiple times during the same short period. If and when we know similar increases, then yes we will be in bubble territory and remember that bubbles always accelerate by the end of the process when it is getting close to the end. So if prices increases at an accelerated pace, this is not a good signal.

 

I don't get it with those 911's.

 

I had two 930's, the last of which turned into a racecar. As they said in the day, "It's a pig, but a fast pig". For me the handling was never quite right, and you really had to adjust your driving to accommodate for the turbo lag. Full throttle on turn in, if you got it just right, you were on full boost just after the apex. Kind of weird, but fast. Certainly not a well balanced car. Based on that, I think the prices of those are a bit ahead of themselves. I'll take a either CS or BB for the same money, pure poetry in motion...

 

I just dont get the 911 thing. I dont think its nice to look at compared to italian cars and i dont buy the argument that few have survived, but we will see how it plays out. Im just saying i can see these bursting first. They just dont appeal to my eye.

 

just not many examples out there, and most of us with early S cars aren't interested in selling....

can't imagine someone not getting it after fully experiencing a drive in one
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I love your Porsche.

I have a 1996 Type 993 that I bought new and it is a pleasure to drive. There is no drama like some exotic Italian cars - it just runs and is pretty fast. I am still stopped in parking lots by car people who want to talk about it even though it is not a rare car - it is still very desirable.
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The early 911's are light tossable cars that are are a ton of fun. Starting most profoundly in '74, each new model became much less tossable, so I think the early cars are something very special. As much as I love the early 911's, I still don't get the valuation relative to Ferrari prices considering production numbers. That being said, anything can be justified in comparison to muscle car valuations.

The first 930's were dirt cheap for a long time. Looking back, though, those were the cars that changed everything in terms of raising the performance bar (for all cars), and they had a phenomenal racing record. There is a lot of historical significance to the early 930's, so it's not too surprising to see them rise.

 

IMO a timeless classic and lotsa fun! Liked the 930's, but this one has ice-cold A/C and handles like a champ....turbos come on nicely and wonderful transmission....could go on and on...had this one for nearly 15 years!
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'57 Speedy....the essence of "simple"

a blast in the twisties and at home doing 80 on the Tollway

had this very nice black-plate for a couple years---
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Wow! I almost bought a black 993 Turbo in 1996 but opted for the conservative Carerra. I love my 911 but still dream of the Turbo.

 

Stop all this Porsche nonsense this instant....it is "Ferrari Chat" for a reason!!

And one of the main reasons is they are not dull and boring looking cars like the Porker pictures posted above!!

 

seems you are a bit myopic, F cars do not stand alone among cars, their value is buoyed by
the relative values of other marques, failing that, the vintage F car would be just another used car among collectors... tracking / discussion about the value of other marques leads to better understanding and appreciation of F car values... while the image value of cars is open to all that goes beyond to those that gave birth, as your image stands open to be rejected... the "ostrich syndrome" exposes anatomy that lacks cognitive value.... the discussion about other marques will slow soon enough and return to F cars

 

Well played Cheesey. I appreciate a clever turn of phrase.

 

Agreed; Ghibli 4.9ss a thing of B e a u t y

Jack

 

Some Alfa's too. Honestly, it's pretty dumb.

Here is when the bubble is going to break.

Someone is going to take a rusty Dino, put on a coat of paint, and sell it in an auction at some stupid price.

That guy is going to get stuck and another guy and another guy and another guy.

When junk hits the market for a quick overpriced buck, it's the end.

BTW: I do like Ghibli's as they are beautiful but they are not great cars.