Malaysia Airlines loses contact with B777-200 / MH370 enroute from KUL to PEK

None of that is certain…..

1. Nobody on the ground knows the difference between manually turned off and explosion.
2. You cannot tell the plane "deliberately" changed course. Radar returns and transponders are totally inaccurate. I'll pull up my flights on the internet and it'll show me flying in circles.
3. How do you know the plane continued to fly 8 hours? That's just silly.
4. True
5. Yet…. but true

1. I disagree
2. You don't know that happened.
3. You don't know that either
4.

None of the above is true. It's just media sensationalization…

When I do something as simple as flying from the US. to Cancun to the Bahamas, I go out of radio, radar and transponder converge every time. It probably looks like I crashed or turned everything off because it all just goes blank on their screens. Nobody would know what happened unless I don't show up at my destination. I can turn off my transponder with the touch of a button or I could go out of coverage area. It looks exactly the same to ATC.

 

the ADIZ and offshore MOA are monitored a fair ways out... further off shore than pilots normally suspect or many are willing to admit...I have had vectors to avoid hot spots and been used as a training target a long way off shore...

ever see those tethered balloons at 3000' + ft... they are not part of air traffic control, yet monitoring all traffic in their area, they are not engaging traffic but will fix on anything that looks suspicious...protocol keeps the local authority in contact with traffic... big brother is watching and alerts suspicious activity as necessary

 

I put "know" in quotes, because obviously none of this is certain, but this is why I said that:

Help from above: Satellite signals can confirm a plane's identity - CNN.com

Pretty much everything being reported, even if the technical details haven't remained consistent, is that the plane kept flying after the transponder and ACARS went offline. Other than the plane disappearing, this is probably the closest thing to a fact that there is about this incident.

 

I'm ignoring most of what is being said in the media, and by that I mean I haven't bothered to read anything but the technical assumptions being made about this. Everything after the "what we 'know'" section are my own manifestations - I don't really know what the media is speculating at this point except that I've seen terrorism in a lot of headlines.

 

another conspiracy theory... there all are sorts of large commercial non scheduled non passenger aircraft flying all over the place... it is not unusual to have overflight paperwork go missing... it is possible to "game" the system to reach a remote landing location... radar sees only blips on a screen, while traffic control hears unknown voices checking in... aircraft identity can be made up, equipment is switched out all the time and reset to the new plane's ID... a landing area can be secured and gov't paid off... takes a little planning and money but it can be done... that part of the world has more holes than a sieve... a lot depends on the jurisdictions traversed... aircraft are repossessed all the time ( without owner/operator knowing about it )...ID changed, any number of scenarios

 

Pretty simple Jason. Climb to max altitude, go to manual pressurization and (after donning oxygen masks) dump the cabin. Within 1 hour everyone would be dead of suffocation. (Within 3 minutes everyone would be unconscious). Problem solved.

 

I want to add, although a little off track, as intriguing as this mystery is, this thread has been fantastic with the combination of actual pilot and related professional replies, along with the level headed responses that have kept this from becoming a bickering match.
The insight keeps this thread so interesting!!

 

I know. My point is there are easier ways to steal a plane.

 

Stealing a cessna and stealing a 777 are not the same.

 

Um, did you read the thread? Who said anything about a Cessna?

 

You said you had several friends who had planes stolen. I'm assuming they don't own commercial airliners?

 

Don't assume so much

 

Unless there is a provision for over the wing refueling on this plane, just getting it refueled would be a serious problem if it were flown to a "remote landing site". Is this an accurate consideration?

 

you're thinking small... all that is needed is a single point adapter for the plane end and a pump to move fuel... readily available from any aviation supply... there are tanks all over that plane from front to tail...

FYI...it would take 5 tractor / tank trailer loads to fuel the plane... ( as a std config-200 )

 

You're absolutely right and I said that on the previous page. No remote airstrip is gonna have the facilities to manage this airplane.

 

of course not... this is a planned event...if the plane makes it to destination... it will be reused for a misson including having fuel

 

Why would there be a 'remote' airstrip large enough to allow an airplane this size to land but then not have accommodations to service it and have fuel near by. Again as we are all talking speculation, I would think 5 tankers of fuel would be obtainable within a corrupt group, and 5 tankers would only be if the target was that far away.

 

Other thoughts that keep me on the fence thinking what may have happened...and I'll believe this plane crashed when I see the wreckage...
If this was a thought out hijack and the hijackers wanted to really get the world off their trail they could simply gut the plane, take a ship to a remotely deep area and dump the interior of the plane into the sea leaving floating debris. I would think all searches would be ceased and the ground sniffing dogs would be stopped. The search would then move to the sea floor and they would be somewhat free to do what they wanted.

 

You have friends that had their own commercial airliners stolen? What type? And from where?

Opa Locka?

 

Opa Locka has a tower at least until the late hours. Plus a customs station.

How many airliners have been stolen from there? Any of your friends' airliners?

 

Anything is possible, but I think that the public conversation has too hastily dismissed malfunction in favor of more unlikely explanations, and for bad reasons. Absence of an ACARS transmission, for example, is not proof that it was turned off deliberately.

The scenario that would still surprise me least is that something broke. Something broke that disabled communications/navigation, they tried to turn back but were unable to control the aircraft, and eventually it ran out of fuel.

I wish the press would ask better questions. We've seen the plot of the two arc-shaped possible positions of the aircraft at the time of its final Inmarsat hourly ping. What about previous pings? Those plots could give some indication of its course. I'm sure investigators are asking these questions but it's frustrating that they don't seem to occur to the folks covering the story.

 

OK, I have a question for you. I used to be a 767 Captain, but I don't know much about the details of the 777.

If the widely reported left turn is based on two or three, unconfirmed military skin paint radar returns, then I downgrade the reliability of that data to less than 5% credible. An after-the-fact reconstruction of the path of a target not actively being tracked as a threat is going to be very sketchy. Add the wild altitude reports associated with these few skin paint returns are beyond the performance capability of the aircraft so I consider the data supporting the left turn off the normal course is HIGHLY suspect.

But it is now being reported as FACT that the left turn was per-programmed into the auto flight control system by one of the pilots. They're claiming that it is absolutely confirmed that this route change was entered into the flight computer and there is no doubt about this fact. I'm not sure I believe it.

Normal procedure, at least when I was flying the North Atlantic, was to pre-program the entire route before takeoff. Later in my career we had the ability to have the route uploaded to us by dispatch before departure. Naturally, we made en-route changes frequently, but to my knowledge these route changes after take off weren't made available to the flight dispatcher or ATC and would be impossible when we were relying on HF communications only; i.e. no VHF coverage. Of course, this was before Sat com was common (our airline didn't have it) and on an older aircraft some years ago and I realize things change.

Finally, my question. If a 777 pilot makes an en-route course change to the flight computer is this data automatically transmitted to the flight dispatcher or some other company agent? And if so, how does it do that?

 

Peter,

What I find difficult is to match the two halves we - seem to - have of this story so far.

It could be a highjack, and assuming it is:
As for the first part, some clues point out to it having been planned: the switching off of all communications, change of route, change of altitude, etc...
And then the second part: the plane is still sending "pings" (can anyone confirm, by the way, that this would indeed mean that it is flying? No "pings" sent when it is on the ground?) and then, after expending what we believe is its allocated fuel, nothing; meaning it falls after having expended all its fuel?

Surely if you take care to plan the first part well, you would at least check that you have fuel enough for what you intend to do with it, no?
Or something went wrong...

I still think a "Triple Seven" is too big an airplane to have been stolen with the intent of re-using it later; logistics involved for hiding it, servicing it, keep it ready to fly again woud be enormous. It is by no way a stealth airplane...

 

I don't think it ran out of fuel, I think it has landed somewhere ... I assume once shutdown the pings stop?

To me there are only the following scenarios:
1. Plane was hijacked and is now in hiding
2. Plane was diverted of course for the pilot to commit suicide, or to cause Mayasian air or government a lot of pain
3. Plane simply crashed and has somehow hidden itself on course in the sea

Pete

 

Well, I sure don't know Pete, but the discussion is interesting nevertheless; if the plane is found, we will learn more. But will it be found? The Indian ocean is rather deep, I guess. It took about 70 years to find "HMAS Sydney", and its location was more or less known.

Rgds