Official Countach Value Thread

As an onlooker that just stands beside, this is the point that i can agree about.

Looking at the Iso and Bizzarrini market there are a lot "rubbish" cars that sells for top dollar, and so does some of the renovation needed Lamborghini´s that would never get a premium if the market were normal.

 

What bothers me is when these Lamborghinis are bought as investments only and are stuck in a non-conditioned U-store-it bin and driven 1-2 times a year. That is a real tragedy.

 

Sold to a Russian collector! Doswidanja

 

I agree if the rate of escalation continues there may be a correction but there are unique things at play in the collector market that are very different from the housing market.

Collector cars have, from my observance finally broken firmly into the Art world. That has not always been the case. Humans have collected expensive paintings for over 1,000 years. Extremely Valuable Collector cars is a notion that is less than 25 years old.

In the last few years I think we have finally crossed that threshold. Super high end cars are now firmly linked to the art world in terms of public perception and have become commonly recognizable as billionaire items. GTOs are like a Van Gogh, or important as a Monet or Picasso. It used to be people would accept a 50M painting but not a 20M car. Now they do because they now routinely broken through the 30M value. Its no longer big news when they do. One GTO rose to nearly 60M. I predict we will see a 100M GTO. Why? Bc its now firmly established as a billionaire thing to have, and is the Mona Lisa of the car world. Several TRs have recently sold for 30-40M. There is a phenomenon that occurs when things are launched into a billionaire orbit. This group (and museums) are largely insulated from the general economy. Van Goghs don't get cheap at these times. They stay put.

Does this have anything to do with a 1M plus Countach? No, and a little bit. If collector cars are now firmly planted in the publics mind as having an extreme value, all boats can rise. I do think there is an extreme rise in the CT values. But I think its a relative upward correction. My prediction it will continue to rise and then level. Why? When you look at the rest of the market CT values have been extremely depressed despite the rarity and importance. CT in the biggest most publicized market, the US, were largely imported with ugly cosmetics for federalizations that changed the original factory look. Car values were depressed and restoration cost off the charts (a VERY hard car to restore). Now that values are rising the crappy cars are getting restored, and now when you see a car it's not a fright pig, its a beautiful car that works. I remember people thought Joe Sackey was nuts by restoring all the Muiras he did. Most Muiras at the time were horrible. Most people were petrified of the cars, and most cars were terrible. Now try to find a Miura that doesn't knock your eyeballs out.

There is also a large generation that sees the CT as the original exotic super car. And that's a big market (everyone who was 12-25 years of age from 1971-88 was enamoured). This demographic is coming into their earning potential now.

I think CT was do for an upwards correction. The LP400 and some other variants are extremely rare, extremely exotic. Compare them to what's around. For goodness sake a new Aventador is 500k, which depreciates like a rock, is worth the same as most CT out there now.

That said I hope I am wrong. I hope its a bubble, that it crashes. I want a GTO and a 57 TR, and a bunch of other cars, and right now its difficult. I raise my glass and say I hope so to those that think we are in a bubble. But if you look at the drivers and really what is happening I think not.

 

This.

Nicer than I was going to say it.

 

Again, not that you, or anyone else, is in business for free....but....

Remind me with this attitude why we might buy from you?

"Hey, let me bash the guy who is prudent" isn't the best strategy.

“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.” Although I don't think Gandhi was a Lamborghini man, this applies.

 

Let me clarify that I was not trying to make a snotty remark but rather point out that Roy, who certainly understand his business very well did not see the appreciation coming or he may have kept the car a few more months? That is what bubbles do to most pros in a bubbly business.

 

Very nice point. Your post is framing a view of the situation very well. It is funny you say this because last week I had the very same conversation about Art people going into cars with a friend in the Art business. He said the same thing. Art collectors are going into cars (as even Boras are appreciating!). 6 digit figures for these people who are routinely used to 7 digit purchases is nothing.
So if the market cools from now on and this fact is indeed real, we may avoid any major adjustment which may be the best outcome one could hope for. But as you said, the current trend has to level off.

 

Agree, and John's much more eloquent post is straight to my question / point in post 2823.

I knew you weren't being snotty. I am sometimes however.

And to clarify my stance, although it is my firm opinion that we are in bubble territory, I do really think that CTs were under appreciated and valued for a LONG LONG time. I do think that they are indeed examples that should be, especially in this currency destructive environment, over $1M. But I know vertical growth curves are temporary and I really am just hoping none of our friends here get burned! I will be happy when FINALLY good early example Lamborghinis are at the same "halo" level as some F cars. They deserve it! Even if that means they will forever be out of my reach.

Preach prudence.

 

Art dealers know all too well about bubbles and if they smell a fish those cars will be unloaded faster than they can be started. They do not like to lose money and unlike true automobile enthusiasts they will not hold waiting for a market to recover from a stumble.

 

that is also a good point!
sometimes i feel we are in a bubble, sometimes i tend to agree it was to be aspected this price level

i also believe the countach were way too cheap for a long time
and i still think LP400 is a 1 M euro car and other variants 250.000-500.000 euro. We are not far from there though

it also has to be noted that after the countach, F40 etc sport cars were designed, built and drive in a VERY different way. i do not think we can see many contemporary cars to be future collectable...i do not bet a 599 or 575 or murcielago will ever be collector items. i think the opposite: most modern contemporary sport cars will never be seen as "art"

there is almost no more hand made in there ... compare the way a countach was designed and built with a murcielago and they are not even close to be the same thing. one can be considered, if not art, an "handicraft product", the other is an industrial product.

what "worries" me is the QUICK rate of growt..VERY quick...
worries ...wrong word
i am not sure it really worries me, i like cars and if the market goes kaboom tomorrow and i can add an F40 or miuras for 200.000 euro, i would be a very happy camper!

2 more things to note:
amount of car flippers increasing quick
is also a fact we now see people that do not know s..t about cars suddenly looking for classics
one guy last weeck told me he was going to buy a ferrari to store it as an investment....and not even knowing what model to get. doesn't this looks strange to you?
and this can only be explained with fashion or speculators
and in both case it is no good for the classic car market-values

anway the countach as the F40 and the 288 GTO are THE cars to have from the 70's-80's
so comparable to say a 275 GTB4 in the 60's or a miura. their fate was to become pretty expensive

they can be expensive and probably should, the fact they are becoming expensive in few months is strange and i tend to agree with sayng now buyers need to be prudent.

 

is on the rise for 10 years or so. no big deal
but the rise increased EXPONENTIALLY last months..that could be an important difference

 

Spot on Emilio.

To the point of more modern cars....will the future collectibles be the Veyron, Paganis and Koenigggseggsegesegsegggsessss?

 

I still think that it has to do with the "gold chain crowd" mentality that Lamborghini got stuck with in the 80's via the Countach.

That image is abating fast and people are finally recognizing them for what they are, unique handmade masterpieces, not some gaudy drug dealer car.... IMO

But the pace upwards is staggering and absolutely calls for prudent behavior when purchasing.

 

Exactly.

A voice of reason.

The current trend makes no sense. I have bought many important Lamborghinis very astutely & with great success over the past 25 years. I have made a small fortune myself, and I have made my clients literally millions of dollars playing around with these cars. I think I have a good finger on the pulse of the market, especially with my financial planning background. Regarding Countachs in particular, save for a couple instances where I have made some nice deals recently, I cannot remember any time since 1990 when I have been more reluctant to buy a Countach at the numbers they are mostly being offered for. That's my position currently.

 

That explains it!

 

John you make an eloquent post, but remember, art has been around for well over 1,000 years, but the notion of a collectible car has only been around for, what, 75 years? Its a different asset, and whilst art will always be appreciated and seen as nice, safe & pleasant, cars can go through a social change where the next generation sees them as noisy, smelly, and obnoxious assets that nobody wants. After all, Christies got out of the car auctioneering business and stuck with art, and the aforementioned is exactly what one of its Directors gave me as the reason for their exit.

I am a very conservative guy. I think its great these cars have appreciated, but the recent leaps & bounds are just silly. I have a feeling some inexpensive Countachs will be coming my way in the future. Meanwhile I say more power to anyone who can sell and get an big number, why not, if someone will pay it? I have sold 4 Countachs in the past 30 days and this tells me that some are thinking its time to bail.

No question, the band will still be playing whilst the Titanic sinks.

 

It also seems to be an indicator of the heat when more and more being listed do not have a posted price. There's too great a chance that the market will bear more in a few days and it seems dealers are unwilling to allow any of that margin to slip away.

See the anni car Mike just posted in the anni thread.

 

We should all know exponential growth doesn't last forever.

I'm feeling a tide shift. Maybe the discussion should turn to:

"Where do you think CT values will peak?"

 

Depends on how bad the seller needs to unload it also.

If it's on borrowed money, watch out.

 

Unlike stocks, there is no shorting real estate or automobiles. You either sell at a profit or watch your investment get battered when things turn ugly.

 

I think if you ask 10 people what they think you will get 10 different answers.

For me, the price is ONLY relevant to the joy and pleasure it gives me to part with liquid cash for an asset.

I, as most know am a driver, my cars do NOT sit in a "Private collection", trailered here and there for shows, only coming out on the most perfect day for the once a year event. I am know to drive them in the rain, the snow, cross country, park them in a Hotel parking lot, a restaurant or movie theater parking lot.

When a car gets to the point that its REAL CASH OUT value exceeds my pleasure to operate it, its gone. I also don't think, at least for me, that any one car is meant to be with you for life. Cars come and go, my pleasure to operate the correct car at the certain moment changes all the time.

Two examples to share how I feel are:

My 1975 red Periscopa...it took almost three years and approx. $300K total to get it where I wanted it. It was a fun experience to get it to the level it ended up at. It was probably the nicest most complete 400 around then and maybe even today as well. The minute it came off the truck here in Seattle I jumped in it and put probably 300 miles on it in the first weekend, I took out almost daily, rain or shine (the wipers worked and it was not painted in water running color paint). As time passed, the thrill of it, maybe because I drove it regularly, began to fade. I logged a lot of miles on it, had it well into 3 digits many times and all with out a signal issue.

When I listed it for sale in the $700K range..everyone thought I was nuts..the price was based on a simple rule for me..that's the approx. price where it becomes time to find another toy to play with. Had nothing to do with I need the money, it wasn't financed, it was not bought to flip it and make money...was 100% that at that price I could move into something else that gave me a NEW FOUND pleasure..much like moving from a house with a pool to a house on the lake front. It sat at that price for a while and ended up being gone at a price in the 600 plus selling mark..that WAS the price that the cash to move on out weighed the desire to keep it and enjoy it..I HAD my fun with it, now onto something else.

Then I have my 2010 LP670-4SV..with a true 6 speed. Hitting over 35K miles now. Cost was approx. $450K. What is it worth today...does not matter because this car is still a car that I can not replace and have no desire to replace..it is STILL giving me 110% pleasure and enjoyment every day..so there is no price that makes me part with it...there is nothing to replace it with that gives me as much joy as the 670-4SV does.

After all..I can always by another 400, another Countach, just about any other car in the Lambo family IS AVAILABLE to obtain..for a price of course..but a TRUE 6 speed LP670-4SV is NOT replaceable..at least not till the 25 years areup and I can MAYBE import one of the 4 6 speed cars made in Euro.

My point is, WHO cares what a car cost, if its a car you want and enjoy..buy it..if your out to buy cars to plan your retirement or BET ON it making you a profit..don't buy a car. Your better off putting half your savings on Red at the roulette table and taking your chance there..at least there it is over in a second...good or bad, no waiting...its a yes or no..and if you hit it big, a yes, go buy the car you want..

I truly don't think anyone here has ever said, I wont go talk to that girl I like...what if we hit it off and she ends up costing more money then I want to spend in the next 30 years of our life together...NOPE, everything in life is a gamble and each have their rewards that each person has to decide if the "risk" is worth the reward..if not, walk away, if it is..have a frickn blast with it..it MAY BE YOUR last day here.

I for one CAN NOT remember the last time I saw an "Armored truck" in a funeral line on the way to a grave site......

 

". I have a feeling some inexpensive Countachs will be coming my way in the future."

Joe, I hope you are right!!!! If you have an inexpensive LP400, 400S low body or DD, please call me first. Same for Miura, 288. If the market crashed I would like a 250 GTO and a 57 TR and a good 275Gtb

I fear however that my prediction is true. CT are getting to were many thought they should be and with the demographics coming on line and a limited supply, I suspect it's not going down.

As for Russians buying into the market I have a different perspective as I have 3 Russian billionaires as partners. They are wicked smart, and they want what they want especially if its a known symbol of wealth and success. And now certain collector cars have crossed info common public perception of being this. If a GTO is a symbolic thing like a Van Gogh, it transcends normal market trends. If the economy collapses you don't see fire sales of certain recognizable museum Collectibles. They stay put. This halo effect will impact certain cars, not all.

Certain variants of the CT are as rare, or more so than the Ferrari super cars. An to a major demographic coming on line, they are wanted just as bad. 500-1M is not much money to a really successful group of guys that want something where less than 1,000 are made. Especially with Russians and others emerging markets that want them.

Is 1.2M for an LP400 silly? Not next to an Aventador or the cost of a 288. Is a French purse worth $20-$100k? My wife said yes 5 times. (Russian).

As someone who liquidated a collection and wants back in, I hope desperately I'm wrong.