Just a thought about the newer Ferraris going to turbo engines....

It's just supply and demand. These cars have a rather large supply so that'll keep their prices low despite the turbo cars coming out IMO. Now if a bunch are totaled over the next decade then things may change.

 

What he said.

People willing to buy older cars are probably going to stick with the classics. People who want the latest/best performance will take the turbos.

 

There will be a few looking for NA cars just like there are people now looking for 3 pedal cars and analog cars but not near enough to create a jump in price.

 

I'm sure there were plenty of people "back in the day" who thought that 246's would never be worth anything either due to them being "mass produded" (plus the fact that they didn't even carry Ferrari badges!).

Even the mighty 250 GTO went through a period where it was worth "buttons" (How many people had the chance to buy one for a few thousand Dollars "back in the day", didn't bother and now regret a missed opportunity?).

Okay, the 360 and the 430 are hardly likely to be worth $Millions in the future, but I can't see them ever becoming $20K cars either.

As with all Ferrari's, they'll drop in value to @ half of their original list price, sit around that mark for a couple of decades, become classics and then the value will gradually start to rise (If legislation allows them to still be driven on the public highway of course! - Emission Laws in 20 years time could be so restrictive that these cars are no longer legal to drive! - That is probably the biggest threat to future values).

 

My guess is have a look at how the 430 and 360 stick cars do relative to their F1 counterparts for some guidance. The more enthusiast driver tends to prefer stick and the stick variants of these cars seem to do a little better than their F1 counterparts in the market place but by no means has it made them immune to depreciation. So what I'm saying is you can't fight gravity (depreciation) but you can ever so slightly mitigate it.

I think the larger Ferrari market wants the latest and greatest and so long as they really don't mess up the turbo motor, this will be about the same kind of switch over as when they stopped producing stick shifts.

 

No.

 

The car market is changing drastically and fast. Not too sure what people will think of the car twenty years in the future.

 

I don't think it's a safe assumption that a 360 will follow the value curve of an Enzo-era Ferrari, any more than a Porsche 997 will follow the value curve of a 1972-73 911S. Electronics age poorly. Mechanical bits can always be restored. And performance and safety improve constantly, so the allure of a 1999 Ferrari... don't know.

I'm not worried about retroactive emissions laws preventing existing cars from being driven. California (!) doesn't bother with my Porsche 356, which probably pollutes more than any modern SUV or Ferrari FF. Emissions standards for new cars will continue to get tougher, though.

Agree with this -- seeing what Porsche and Tesla have achieved on the performance front. We may see internal combustion engines and cars that aren't self-driving consigned to the scrapyard, other than bonafide collectibles. I would guess (and it is only that) that insurance companies will make a killing off anyone who doesn't go with a self-driving car, so the economics alone may make our idea of the car antiquated sooner than we think.

 

Also consider the new tesla model "s" has 691hp from 2 electric motors, and a silly amount of torque, all without the need of fuel.

 

I think it is unlikely they will appreciate in value, but at some point in the depreciation process they will likely hold their value.

I am certain that in the US that the cars would not be banned from the road. That would mean they would have to ban every car made before 2010 (if you include the 430), that just isn't going to happen.

 

Ferrari is like Apple in tech industry. They set standards and trends that other manufacturers are trying to reach/copy. Dont be fooled by turbo-engine introduction, 458 successor will be massive success!

 

Porsche sells turbos and na cars. Why can't Ferrari?

 

Yes, but only NA option will be front based V12.

 

Soon all Porsche models will be turbo charged.

 

Phill nailed it. Someone else said it can never happen here. What did your mommy tell you about saying, "Never"? The older car exemptions can be taken away with the swipe of a pen. While the older cars like the 356s are OK now, the requirements for (some) later cars (my '89 911) are being tightened beyond what was allowed when the cars were new.

 

Porsche has pretty much become an SUV company that also makes very good sports cars. Their SUVS are hugely successful and their primary market know.

Yes, the 360 & 430 will probably never be highly collectible. However, they are both outstanding cars with looks that should withstand the test of time. Virtually all of the owners of these cars I've spoken with are very pleased and I always enjoy seeing these cars.

Just remember, back in the late '70s / '80s, Ferrari made a tone of 308s and 328s, and look were their prices have been heading recently. By today's standard, these are hardly high performance cars; but, they are still a lot of fun and easy to maintain. The 360 / 430 are the '2000s equivalent of those cars.

As for Turbos, the 288 GTO and F40 were turbo-charged. Anyone want to "complain" about those cars?

 

Put down the crack pipe. Ferrari was late to the game with fuel injection, 4 valve pent-roof cylinder heads, unibody/monocoque chassis, etc. And let's not forget the crappy fuse boxes they installed too.

 

Exactly. It's all about scarcity even within specific models. The 360 is 15 years old. Every year some 360s will be retired due to accidents, neglect or just old age. Even more cars will be driven and depreciated from that. My guess is that an ultra-low miles and original 360 that you can purchase today will not lose that much value if you never drive it and keep it maintained as a garage queen. (It would be a shame to do so in my view, but that's not the point of this thread). Look at the 328s that are already selling for prices close to the low-end 360. The NUMBER of cars that are still low-miles, no accident, documented provenance will go down every year to the point where the good cars ARE scarce and (limited number of) buyers will pay up for a prime example. Meanwhile, those cars that have been driven, repaired, and beaten up a bit (read: enjoyed!!!) will probably depreciate substantially from where they are today.

And personally, I don't see much risk of these cars being forced into mothballs by regulators. Historic cars like these are almost always grandfathered in and are such a small component of the big picture. Of course, I've been wrong many times underestimating the stupidity and irrational behavior of politicians.

(for the record, I just bought an ultra-low mile 360 Spider last month. showroom condition inside and out. In two months of ownership I will put more miles on it than it got in the last 12 years, and I will do so with great joy. If someone wants to buy these cars to look at, more power to them, but that's not me. So I'm one of the guys depreciating a prime example by driving it so that those who don't drive theirs will become more scarce and valuable over time).

 

All without the need for gas being poured into the tank. You sound like a logic free politician acting as though no energy goes into powering one. They pollute in very real terms just like a petro fueled car.

 

Moderate the Kool Aid consumption a little. You are hallucinating.

 

Hard to say, there are 34,000+ 360/430s that are older models in a niche small demand marketplace.

Someone told me once that for a recent (ie up to 30 yr old) Italian exotic its best to stick with models with around 1,000 produced. The longer I stick sround, the more sound this advice appears to be. No one is questioning the investment potential of cars like:
360 CS
550 Barchetta
575 Super America
599 Aperta
Countach
Certain Diablos (like what I have, a '99 roadster, one year design with 150 worldwide)

 

Don't look now but California already has retroactive automotive pollution control laws. Been in force for a few years. Cars fail pollution tests every single day in this state trying to meet standards that were either not in effect at time of sale or are being tested in ways never imagined.

In the EU older cars are banned from entering many cities. If you do not think that is not on some long term agendas here you are dreaming. That entire agenda exists and is pushed forward as fast as the nitwits in Sacramento feel it is politically safe to do so.

 

The Tesla needs fuel, it just doesn't carry it. Lots of natural gas (or coal) is burned to generate the electricity to charge a Tesla.

 

Arguably one of if not THE most popular modern Ferrari is the F40 powered by a twin turbo V8. I don't know anyone who would suggest that the 288 GTO isn't a desirable car, either.

The next generation of turbo Ferrari sports cars will have wait lists just as long as the 458 because the next generation of men experiencing a midlife crisis will need one. The next generation of men really hitting it big financially will need one. The guys who already have a 458 and always need to have the latest model will need one. The plan is to increase production levels. They will sell all that they can manufacture for these reasons and because performance will exceed that of the 458.