Is this a bubble?

That seems like something someone who doesn't understand the 308/328 market place would say. It doesn't matter how many cars of each kind were made relative to each other, it only matters what the demand for each car is relative to supply. Most buyers don't want either a 308 or a 328, they want one or the other, just like GTS vs. GTB. Sure there is some cross over, but for the most part the markets influence each other but are separate.

 

Precisely. Well said.

 

Food for thought:

50 states
Approximately 50 "european" countries

That leaves about 120 cars per state/country. That's if they are all still around, and does not account for the fact that they are all over the world. That's not a lot of cars to go around, is it?

Ciao!

Hannibal

 

Much more difficult to find a strong 308 than a strong 328.

 

Let's not forget that since 308's were valued low in the past that a lot have been totaled, left to rot, parted out, or scraped. All those parts on ebay came from somewhere. I would not be surprised if there are fewer 308s remaining than 328.

 

I might be in at that price!

 

In previous years, whenever "future value" and "308" were used in the same sentence, the following sentence would always include "12000 built". Detractors "who knew" did an excellent job convincing the masses that 308's wont be worth anything and the result was neglect and unlimited parts cars. Today, the world is starting to realize there aren't as many left as what was once thought. Take this site for example, probably the most popular Fcar
chat room on the planet, and we cant even account for 1000 cars(GT4) included. I think the time has come.

 

I just checked eBay for the first time in about a month and good god almighty, every 308 has a Buy Now price of 70-80k with one mid-mileage example getting bids over 60k. I know asking ain't gettin', but holy smokes things have changed.

It's nice to see prices coming up, but at the same time part of me hopes it's a bubble because at these prices, it takes some fun out of it.

 

Agree.

Not only are 308s and 328s different once you get to learn about the cars, but as they slip into the classic domain buyers will distinguish between different segments. Considering US cars alone, I think we'll see significant difference in price points among these:

1. Glass 308s
2. Steel carb/early (pre-cat, hotter cam)
3. Steel carb/late (cats in the US)
4. 2vi
5. QV, early (two cars, smog pump)
6. QV, late (single cat, Zincrox body)
7. 328 early (convex wheels)
8. 328 late (concave wheels/ABS)

If you layer the GTB/GTS preference on that - especially the pre-QV cars where GTBs were still popular - this has the makings of a complex market. And, for those in California, the available pool of smog-legal 308s is even smaller.

Categories 1 and 8 have already seen healthy price rises. Categories 2 and 6 seem to me to be next up, but I don't know the future any better than the next guy, so don't bet your retirement on it...

Yes, although the early 328s (concave wheel) are still relatively tough to find nice. The '89s seem to have been bought/kept as investments - lots of nice ones. But still huge demand.

 

Jon, for clarity regarding California.

Is a 76 /glass or steel US spec allowed in California, but a 76/77 euro glass or steel not allowed to register ?

How does this pre 73 car thing work ?

Thanks

 

California smog tests all cars back to 1975. It's not a rolling timeline - that year is written into the state law. All 308s have to be US-spec cars with all original emissions equipment, or Euro cars that were federalized and have a BAR (Bureau of Automotive Repair) sticker. They do a visual inspection, look for the equipment and stickers, and then test the tailpipe.

Reportedly, you can get a pre-cat, US 308 emissions tested every two years and registered, but it's a bear and sometimes requires creative tuning before and after testing. You're really better off with an injected car here, which is why we seem to pay dearly for US QVs. Even the US QV that I bought from the Ferrari dealer here has had a couple of fails in its life, and it has every original component intact.

It's a shame, because we have some of the best roads in the country, and basically no winter weather, but you're really limited as to what you can keep in the state. Vintage stuff is exempt, though, so my Porsche 356 - which probably emits more crap than a fleet of Escalades - is fine. I think Ferraripete keeps his Boxer in North Carolina. Smart man...

 

Not a bubble - which will be unfortunate for some. I'd like to own a GTB for vintage racing but may not if they get too expensive - as one "first world" example.

Bottom line - the 308 is one of the most beautiful cars ever manufactured. Step on up if you would like to argue.

In addition, it is a ton of fun to drive and makes awesome noises.

No more will ever be made.

People keep reproducing.

The conclusion seems obvious to me in terms of value.

 

Therefore, a US spec glass/steel carb car has more appeal than a euro one for California if it doesn't have a BAR.

Not getting to off track, is there an appetite for those cars in California over a 74 Dino per say?

 

Yes.

Yes, a glass 308 is highly collectible here (and everywhere else).

But pre-'75 cars (Ferrari or otherwise) are much easier to keep registered here.

 

The "How many 308s/328s do we all own together" poll lists 460 308s (GTS/GTB) vs. 218 328s. That might indicate that more 308s still survive in the overall ownership pool.

 

80k for a classic Ferrari still seems cheap to me when I watch all these mass produced cars going through auctions for much more money. I don't see this bubble. All special cars do this once they mature to a classic age and not just a used car.

 

Ferrari 308 Ferrari Euro 308 GTS QV | eBayMy 85 Euro has less mileage, wow. I'm watching this one.

 

That's why the 75 GT4 hits the sweet spot in CA. No smog testing and all the fun

Will there ever be the day it follows the first Dino and out prices the GTB/GTS?

Ha ha ha. I don't think I will see it happen but it would be funny if the ugly duckling gets its day

 

I agree, not likely, but owning an emissions-exempt car in CA is definitely a hell of a lot simpler. I'm getting the Porsche serviced/tuned this week, and my mechanic just tunes it to run well.

If the law ever changes, though, I think you'll see demand for pre-1980 308 GTB/GTS's go through the roof here. And Boxers. Lots of money and car enthusiasts in this state...

 

And...depending on where you live (thinking of Cali for example), layer the "Euro" cars into the mix and that might create a different strata as well...especially for those international buyers.

 

I think it will. That's why whenever someone makes the "12,000 made so there's an infinite supply" argument I'm kind of skeptical.

How many of us here, when looking for a car to buy, just searched for "any red 308, whatever comes along first"? Maybe some, but probably not many.

 

I've been keeping track for almost 10 yrs now what the potential number of these cars including the 308 could be. The silent factor that is never discussed is the earth quakes, the fires, the wars, the floods, the accidents/deaths, the chopped up / crushed cars, sketchy recorded real production total numbers etc....

Today with the Internet, live Instant pictures, more advanced tracking systems of VINs, much better built cars and so forth, the production numbers from the factory being more accurate, by my calculation it's safe to say that 20% ( 2 out of ever 10 ) are no longer with us. My calculations are a hypothesis of course, but the formula I've put together with the above mentioned factors would list 308s at under 10,000 cars at best globally. Keep in mind, some models may have a higher and lower rate, but all combined models and series, this would not be off the mark when compared to other car brands, and potential stats.

 

I for one am hoping it is a bubble as I have yet to own my dream car a 308 qv and where prices are headed currently it is just more than I feel comfortable spending. As they say time will tell.

 

May I ask how many you have in your database? Just curious as to what your cross section is...



PDG

 

Many said that 15 (??) years ago when 246's were sub-$100K.

Not saying this is "the" car to buy, but...this would peak my interest if I was in the market: http://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/143648601-post50.html