412 thoughts - from the UK Daily Telegraph

How to spot a future classic
Is it possible to predict which old cars will make you money? Andrew Frankel reveals his top tips

The most money ever paid for a car is the £22,843,633 that someone splashed out on a Ferrari 250 GTO at auction this summer. Leaving aside the fact that some thought it would go for even more, what made that car the most valuable in the world, and what lessons can buyers of more affordable classics learn from its example?

You might think there are few; the GTO is an icon, the greatest product from the greatest sports car marque of all time. What possible relevance can it have to someone with, say, one thousandth of that money to spend on a classic car?

Plenty I say. Indeed I believe the same rules that make the GTO worth over £22 million can be used to estimate any car’s potential as a future classic. And while I offer no guarantees at all, I'd say the more of the following boxes that a car ticks, the more likely it is that, one day, it will become a classic.

1. Is it beautiful?
Not a deal breaker if it is not, but a huge help if it is. A car’s beauty can make buyers blind to its other limitations and can allow a car that is perhaps a little dull to drive to become a classic, as the Citroen DS19 proves.

2. Is it rare?
Simple supply and demand factors this in, so long as the car is rare for the right reasons (not many were made), rather than the wrong ones (terrible sales or being so badly built that most crumbled to dust). This can also help cover a litany of dynamic limitations and is why the Ferrari 288 GTO, which is quite a difficult car to drive, is hugely more valuable than the wonderful F40; F40s outnumber 288 GTOs by almost four to one.

3. Is it technically significant?
You need to be careful here because cars can be technically interesting in all sorts of ways without ever troubling classic status. A car made from wood, or with an upside down engine, or an insane interior might be interesting, but is it significant? The Lancia Lambda was the first car built with monocoque construction, so it is significant and is a true classic. As is that 1970s bad boy, the BMW 2002 Turbo, the first turbocharged production car.

4. Is it entertaining to drive?
It doesn’t have to be – see the DS example above – but it genuinely helps if it is. This can be such a strong determinant of future classic status it can override shortcomings in other areas. I bought my Peugeot 205 GTi not just because it is fabulous fun to drive but because I truly believe that in time this will make it a genuinely collectable car.

5. Does the model have a competition heritage?
An important and often overlooked component in establishing a car’s pedigree. If a car is of a type that has done impressive work on track or rally stage, that goes a long way to conferring proper credibility on its road-going brethren. Look at the prices now being paid for 1960s Minis and 1970s Escort MkIIs to how well this theory works in practice. VW Beetles do not enjoy the same status.

6. Is it usable?
Critical. However wonderful it is, it still has to fit into the life of its owner and if you can only drive it twice a year and have to trail it to a specific location before you do, that may well affect its value. Taken to extremes, this is why 1950s F1 cars are as a rule less valuable than their sports racing stablemates: because of the regulations at the time, sports cars had to work both on the race track and the public road and it is this very versatility that is so valued today.

7. Does it have a great badge on its nose?
This shouldn’t matter but it does. To use a Ferrari example once more, you’ll now pay over £200,000 for a 330 GT Mk1 from the mid 1960s despite the fact it is ugly, not very quick and wasn’t that great when it was new. But it’s a Ferrari and a 1960s V12 Ferrari at that. And in this case, that’s enough.

If you apply these rules to the Ferrari 250 GTO you will see it ticks every box save the one marked technical significance, for despite its giant-killing ways and incredible V12 engine, the GTO was actually a very conventional car. But that’s the point: not even the GTO ticks every box, so if you can find a car that manages even a few, you may just be on to something.

Potential future classics

1. Ferrari 412
Twice as rare as an F40, and a classic front-engined, rear-wheel drive V12 Ferrari, currently going for about £40,000. Sneered at when new for being behind the times, this is now no longer a significant factor. Manuals are better than autos, but almost impossible to find. Fewer than 30 found their way to the UK.

2. Ford Sierra Cosworth RS500
As the number in the title suggests, these are incredibly scarce and are proper homologation specials for a car that, in period, was usually unbeatable in touring car racing. Not pretty, but rare, special and very proper.

3. Alfa Romeo SZ
Just 1032 of these startling looking, Zagato-badged sports cars were made and came with the reputation of being the finest driving cars their era. Alfa 75-based mechanicals are strong, but beware the potential for chassis rot beneath the apparently pristine plastic body.