Official Countach Value Thread

The price cuts of the anniversary cars, and the fact that they have sat, tells me that the anniversary market still is saturated, and, with cars coming to market, this will only perpetuate the situation, especially when the cars coming to market are "cheaper" in terms of PP, such as the red Canadian car.

I have also noticed that suddenly we have more non anniversary cars publicly available, and that there have already been price cuts, deals made, and so on. The market is speaking, and I believe it is saying that, after this long pause, we are going to see a reduction in values. Not back to 100k anniversary cars, for example, but, I think some recent buyers will have to endure some pain if they didn't purchase correctly.

Re: the wave theory, I'm not so sure that, after we have this correction, we will get another leg up as the wave up in the cars lagged the equity market, and when the equity market makes a big move down, that will eradicate hopes of another up in collector cars - and I'm talking across the board, not just the Countach

 

FYI I come up to 13 publicly available 89/90 and one not for a total of 14 (a lot of inactive ads out there also, should be noted), and I come up with 5 1988 cars, one not public.

 

True.

I plan to review & adjust my numbers after the first quarter which will have included the Amelia Island auctions etc.

 

sweet - now ill be forced to finally figure out which pre ground affects countach i want!

 

A lot of that I find agreeable. However I also see that there are a lot of options for cars out there, white, red, black, winged, wingless, miles hi and lo, etc. The only cars seemingly selling are at auction. If asks are being dropped 8% to 15% (+/-) and cars are still sitting, I think there is more downside room to go. A lot of the cars sitting are at dealers and though they know, being in the exotic car business, that inventory doesn't turn as quickly as a Toyota, they do eventually have to turn it, even at a loss. My personal bet is that they will, or at least, have to back away from the very very high margin they originally asked for (one in particular I'm thinking of).

The un-declared currency war is also not helping things. For a US buyer, cars from most of Europe suddenly got cheap, while Swiss cars became a lot more expensive a couple weeks ago, whereas Canadian cars continue to get a bit cheaper, if they are priced in their home currency.

 

This is not yet true. The Euro is still at a premium of 12% or so to the Dollar and it will take another 7-10% roughly to get the car over once you include shipping and all taxes and insurance, plus some wait time.

 

Where are all these european cars? First,i do know a guy or two in scandinavia who owns Countaches,they are all very aware of the strong dollar,and the strong American Market,this day and age Anybody with 3 braincells knows the exhchangerates at any given time,exotic car market is global and transparent also readily available to anyone who has any interest,by checking his/ her I phone, in the case of a sudden ovewhelming interest in Countach listed for sale in any part of Europe,the byer will automaticly get their antennas up and figure out whats going on,i am not saying there is not a deal or two slippin thru the cracks,but in genaral European exotic car owners are typicly informed,and somwhat wealthy induviduals,and yes they do have internet in Norway Sweden Germany and on and on.

 

That isn't what I'm saying at all. When did I say anything about currency parity? I'm talking about the sudden change in rates.

Example 1

A car in continental Europe listed in early November at 400k Euros would be a purchase price ( nothing else ) of roughly $500k USD through mid December. Today it would be $452k USD.

Example 2

A car in Switzerland listed at 500k CHF just at the beginning of this year was about 500k USD. Today the same car is 540k USD. And it was 580k just a couple weeks ago!!

Example 3

A car in the US listed in early November for 425k USD was 340k Euros through mid Dec, and today it is 376k Euros.

Are you telling me these currency fluctuations are having no effect on sales?

 

There are a few

 

I responded to your comment that cars in Europe suddenly got cheap to those in the US. What I've generally seen is that if a car is going for $250K here it's going for €250K there, so today the premium is still 12% for the currency disparity plus the cost to get the car to the States, which is 7-10% depending on the size of the purchase. We are not at a point where European cars are cheap and will be imported to the U.S. in great numbers. If someone really wants a particular car and is willing to pay the premium perhaps, but the premium still exists.

 

Besides the currency issue, I think there is a certain amount of market saturation at play. I gauge this by noting the number of people who contact me looking for a particular model or variant over a given period, say, a month.

 

Again that is NOT what I said, re-read both of my posts.

 

Did the sale not happen ???

Lamborghini Countach | eBay

 

Market saturation due to the spike in prices the last 5-10 years on ALL models. Many owners more than happy to take a nice return on their cars with todays prices.

BUT, these prices do nothing but reflect a "base" price average and have no relation to A1 cars. We are seeing a flurry of average car hit the market and selling around base prices.

We are going to see in the future a wider price difference depending on condition and originality. Slow moving base prices, steady healthy climb continuing on the few remaining unmolested original cars.....

 

+1.

 

This is another car.

 

Interesting discussion everyone. I decided to buy the 1990 Canadian car with low miles today. Won't have it here in Fl. till the end of the month I guess. Customs, weather, and all that stuff. Will look nice next to our Red SLSGT Coupe and Red 356GT4 2+2. We plan to show it at the Festivals of Speed Amelia event and the Celebration Exotic Car Festival both here in Florida.


Sorry, no disclosure on purchase price. I can tell you however the last one I had I paid $60k for. It was 1996 of course!

Cheers

 

Congratulations & enjoy!

 

Congrats! Please share pics when she arrives.

 

I have been chatting with a friend in England about the car over email today. Here are a few of my comments when he asked me about values. All strictly opinions of course!

Thinking it should be $400k US +. You had one a few weeks ago in Paris with RM that did $330k US hammer + the 10% buyer's premium. Or $363k total. It had 6k miles. Then there was the solid red car at Mecum with 6500 miles (KMs or US miles, not sure) for $350k + 10% or $385k and a car last month in Az. at $467k with 600 miles in black. So, with the pearl red limited to 4 cars (if that is true) and the 2k miles we might be fine. Forums have quite a chatter about a bubble and cars dropping to half, back where they were a year ago. It's certainly possible but not very often does a model or brand double in a year then drop back over the next. They have historically risen over several years, leveled for a few years, then if they drop, it will be very quick. I don't think everyone who wanted one has it quite yet. And that is really the driver of values. And forums have more opinions than facts as I have proven to be so personally! It's all good.

 

Regardless of what you paid today, you likely bought the car to enjoy for many years and in the long term it is likely that Countach values continue to rise as the 70s and 80s generation continue to enter the market in greater force. Enjoy it knowing that you have purchased a very special piece of history that only a finite few have had the pleasure of ever driving, let alone owning. The rest will take care of itself!

 

yep. That car could not sell at auction for $100K in 2011and it only had 6K miles!!.. lol...
times have changed!

 

Great,this beautiful car went to someone with the intention of keeping it for a long time,best of luck to you congrats,
On the subject of cars not selling at minimum reserve, Joes 911 Paris examples are indeed historic / race important cars, but am i the only person out here thinking if there was ever a bubble,the 911(they made like a Thousanbillon trillion of them in different variasions) has to be as close to one as one can get, perhaps i got it all wrong ,but an italian limited prod v12 mid engine hand built supercar,grund breaking design and on and on. Versus an inflated wv bug with 2 extra cylinders,made in the trillon fantasillion nmbrs? 350$k seems cheap for an Anni.

 

First of all, I will admit to having skin in the game, as I own an LP400S2, but secondly I think I can comment objectively as I have no intention, and fortunately no need to sell it.

Having said that, I think it is incorrect to say that prices are falling or even levelling off.

Classic cars are not a day trader commodity and you need to look at the trend. I bought my car only 15months ago, for c$200k. It is a 16k mile low body and had remained unsold for a number of months prior to my purchase. In the intervening period there have been specific cars which have broken the glass ceiling on Countachs, for various reasons, including the undriveable S1 which was reunited with its first owner. These highs are unrepresentative, as are the lows which are gererated by the opportunistic sales of poor examples.

Right now, CTs which have been held for years, are being auctioned and sold off to take advantage of current prices, by owners who paid relatively low $ for them , or who have owned for a long time, and for whom current prices make an irresistible opportunity to make a meaningful cash difference to their overall situation. These cars are being bought by people who send them off to be brought back up to A1 condition and who will generally have no financial need to sell in the future. (I spoke to well known specialist in UK this week, who has pretty much 'closed his doors' to new customers given the upsurge in CT refurbs).

That's the next stage in uplifts - when the cars are in the homes of people who have fixed them up and will then sell relatively infrequently. Right now, we are in the middle of a 'great rotation' away from long term owners to relatively cashed up newcomers. (A generalisation of course...)

As I said, 15 months ago, you couldn't sell an S2 for 200k. There is no doubt the car is still on the rise on a long term moving average basis.

Having said all of that, my belief is that there will be a massive, all-consuming deflation in classic car prices at some point, unless global inflation takes hold generally. Right now, there is a carry trade in cars for various reasons, because people who have access to cash can use money which would more usually have gone in interest payments, to buy assets which benefit from all the extra cash which is floating around looking for a home.

If I owned an anniversary (purely because of numbers produced), and was looking to turn a profit, then I'd 100% be selling it now. They night peak higher, but pretty sure they will trough lower. I'm not selling mine as I'm not looking to profit, and I might never find such a good low-body again (it's one of 2 in UK now).

However, and back to the point of this elongated post...just because I think prices will fall, does not mean I think they are falling yet. They're not, and neither are other classic car prices.