Hasn't it been for all Ferraris in Europe, not just 308s? Seems like a different market altogether. Maybe a bubble there.
I would be interested in a thorough explanation by Nuvolari how 246 prices and the duration of those, as well as Porsche 911 (F-model) prices and their duration correspond with his chart. Best Regards and thank you in advance Martin
Hmm, difficult to say Jon, as I do not follow all models. Furthermore, there are some differences as the U.K is clearly leading the tendancy, as already said. My guess is that for the time being at least, it is mostly a seventies/eighties "disease": values in ASKED PRICES are climbing especially for 3x8, Testarossas/TR/512M, 365/512BB. For the eighties, 355 are probably still at the bottom of their depreciation curve, not firming up, as are 456s. 550 seems to be firming up and climbing now. 360/430 are still getting down. As already said, you'll get one 430 and some cash against a nice 328, or almost two 360 these days... Rgds
The problem with the chart applied to the 308 is that the chart must be interpreted as the collector car market, or at least the Ferrari market. If the bubble bursts it will not be a 308 bubble. It will be the Ferrari market bubble. You won't, for example, see 246 priced take a dive while 308 continue to rise.
Correct that the 246 was an early one to the party that saw the massive shooting up of prices on lots of European cars including Countaches, and early 911's. At present in the Dino world you are no longer seeing every auction result yielding a world record price (there were a few months when that happened). What is happening is that cars rather than being snapped up the instant they hit the market are lingering for extended periods and auction results are not hitting or surpassing estimates. The recent Scottsdale auctions are a reflection of that and indicates to a cooling of the market. What will happen in the future I do not know but judging the recent past it is hard to argue that sales of Dino's are not as feverish as they were a year ago. Regarding the 308 I will only offer my personal opinion based on my observations. I think that the Dino market helped the 308 market as people who were priced out of Dino's started to look for 'the next best thing' which created some (not all) of the interest. Guys lets not get WAY off track here and start a 308 vs Dino debate as to which car is better etc. I personally like the 308 better but that is just my opinion and I'm trying to keep emotion out of my analysis. Returning to the market I then think some (not all) of the other appreciation comes from the general market interest in European classics where a number of cars are seeing astronomical appreciation which is bringing up the value of other cars near them. To answer the original question on duration for the 308 it is my opinion that it will go on for a bit but, because I feel their appreciation is strongly a function of the market pushing these cars up, that its 'bubble' will last less time than say a Dino. I cannot give a time, price, or range as that is pure speculation. The one thing I am sure of is that what I am seeing in the 308 section mirrors the Dino section a few years back so there is likely something to be learned there.
I covered some of this in my previous post but as for my opinion I would say that 246 and 911 prices are in the late Mania stages while 308 prices are in the early to mid Mania phases. I believe that 308's are on a compressed time scale to the 246's so you will not see the same kind of appreciation timeline as we did with those. Who knows what the future will hold but we certainly know what the past offered us. In 1988 308's cleared $150K which is over $300K in today's dollars. I'll bet if Ferrarichat existed back then you would read 101 reasons of why 308's will go up forever (Classic shape, Magnum PI, Enzo's dead, etc.) but the reality is that no one knows and we are all just guessing. Certainly someone predicting sub $20K 308's 15 years later would have been treated as a lunatic. More recently who would have thought (in North America at least) that we would be paying the prices for gasoline that we are a year ago?
Correct! The 308 is merely part of a bigger bubble that will grow, shrink, or pop at some undetermined time in the future. Oh and for those who do not think there is a bubble bear in mind that this thread is less than 30 days old and has over 750 replies and close to 30,000 views. That kind of interest and traffic does not happen when markets are cold.
Sort of... but... In 1988, 328s were new and 308s were almost new. There was a buy-and-flip mentality that we later saw with 360s and F430s as well. Ride the wave and get out before the inevitable depreciation hits and supply exceeds demand. Thirty-plus years on, you don't have 12,000 nice 308s available for purchase. You have whatever cars survived decades of being too cheap to properly maintain. Moreover, steel 308s are still cheap relative other classic European sports cars of their era (e.g. Porsche 930). If the "bubble" is defined by there no longer being dozens of 308s available for $30K, I would view it as more of an upward correction as existing demand (and new demand from the widespread interest in "analogue" cars these days) begins to edge out the supply of nice 308s available. Again, I see much more of a bubble around 246s and possibly Boxers and Daytonas than I do around the still relatively cheap 308s. Prices are still quite low for what these cars represent.
Agreed. In my limited view, it seems that the cars bubble/rise at different rates, but tend to burst together. A friend of mine was at my garage yesterday, semi market follower but real car guy, says: "Oh that 328. So beautiful. Always loved them. Aren't they considered the 'affordable' Ferrari?" He nearly needed reviving when I mentioned it'd take 70-ish plus to replace. And I know you said, 'relatively', but even that seems to be changing.
If I am reading this chart correctly there is a almost a 3x valuation difference between the mean and the bubble and then when the bubble bursts and it returns to the mean (which is slowly rising) you are at about 2.8x the value. Putting this into numbers the Dino 246 which is roughly value now at $410,915 (Hagerty) would experience a bubble rupture where it would be worth about $142,000 when it returns to the mean. That's a huge bubble. For the chart to work for the 3x8 we would have to be at the very start of a bubble taking a mean value of $40,000-$50,000 and prices peaking around $120,000-$150,000 before they would come crashing down to $45,000-$55,000 when it returns to the mean. Don't see it Image Unavailable, Please Login
This is a conceptual graph not drawn to scale. As such should be treated for the idea presents and not dissected into any numerical values.
I of course could have never bought a 308 when it was new, our age difference makes a difference on our perspective. LOL
Oh lawrdy make it stop. The garbage being thrown around in here. Over restored? Says who? Newman? No scratches? Too perfect? Please Newman, if these are actually your words come tell us. I've seen your work, it's respectable no doubt, but how could anyone say a car which is for all intents and purposes new, be over restored. I ask this, a car that was worth more than the average house in the day, was it built too perfectly? Just silly to even say such things. Keep it on an even keel people. In other blow your mind news I did hear that NOS Trico wiper blades were going for 1% of what your 308's are going for on eBay. Get them while you can. For those that don't like to restore too perfectly, Pep boys has great alternatives for sale.
First of all Mr Fave, I'm the one who mention Newman in my post and it was not HIS words but mine. I once told him the car he did was over restored and he reacted by asking why I was saying that. That is why I said '' I talked about it with Newman'' So don't blame anybody other than me. For ''almost'' any collector a restored car will never be Worth the same as super low miles unrestored car. As far as I'm aware we don't know of any steel 308 sold for anywhere near this asking price. Not even a vetro in unrestored condition. For your info I'm 52yo and been in the cars my entire life. Have restored cars that were in magazines in US and Canada. I've seen unrestored cars and fully restored cars. I'm not a newcomer in cars, fairly new in Ferraris but there is NO différences in restoring one or another if you respect the way is was originally built. I know I stepped on some toes with my post because Mr Solmito seem to have his fanclub around Toronto. I personnally contacted him a couple times by emails and from some of his answer I'm not in that fanclub, Sorry! The car is VERY nice and superbly restored. No doubt about that. But I found the ad kind of bragging. Now about over restored which was not my comment but I explain my way of seeing it. There is only one way to correctly restore a car, bring it back to original state and condition. I know this car was restored with this goal in mind but.... When Ferrari build their cars there were just building another car to sell. Not a show winner. All the parts were on shelves or in bins. Parts where shipped from suppliers in bulk with no particular attention. When workers put them together they didn't take care not to scratch the ball-joint or the bolts. The parts had scuffs and scratches from the box they came. The plating had suffered from dust and oxygen on the shelves. An when the car was finished it was ROAD TESTED for real with road dust and grimes. Yes a restored car is over restored, perfect finish, unmarked bolts head, super care not to scratch anything when assembling. NO ORIGINAL cars were ever made like this. I've done many PDI inspections on new cars and I know what an assembly line product is. Yes Ferrari probably had a bit more care than regular line cars. But still assembled by humans for a paycheck, not by restorers. The cars I've seen in my life that were the hardest to distinguish from original unrestored cars were the fully restored ones that had now been driven for some years. Those were hard to tell if restored or not. Any fresh restoration always looked over restored.
Outside of car shows it may be hard for people to imagine there is such a thing as "over-restored", but it does exist and it can be a detriment in scoring. As a couple of people have mentioned, this car is in far nicer condition than it would have ever left the factory. The paint and finishes are superb, flawless, and not as it would have originally been built. I've restored a few cars to platinum level in my life, and you wouldn't believe the effort that goes into making them "correct" as they would have left the factory. From intentional overspray on parts to scuffs on parts that were installed; orange peel in the paint to hand written pencil numbers on backsides of parts... there is a great deal of work involved in restoring a car to factory condition. The black car advertised has gone well past that, and now has finish quality it NEVER would have had from Ferrari. Don't get me wrong, it's very nice and looks wonderful, but it is absolutely over-restored.
Sorry guys but can we stay on track? What does the debate about the 308 condition have to do with the market conditions?
I think a car's condition has everything to do with valuation, which impacts market conditions. What's the use of debating a bubble when ignoring the condition of cars that are on the market or have sold?
Right... Thanks No toes steps on. My comments had nothing to do with being in any fanclub, heard this silly line before. Had the shoe been on the other foot my comments would remain the same. My comment was about over restored and the never-ending need for crap to be spewed about this place over everything... But it was worth the laugh, as it's always nice to read something original. I'm apologize for thinking these were Newman's words. Monsieur Fave
Do you believe Ferrari Classiche restorations have scratched bolts and plating before leaving their facility on a 275GTB/4? My quess, not any. As they were hand built, no two were ever alike when they were originally built. Some may have had scratches, some not, which is correct? Over-restored was much more of a complaint regarding the body panels on ferrari restorations than bolts with scratches. Corvette foks have that whole thing with the replication of poor build quality of the 60s, with overspray and missing paint. The Bloomington Gold corvette should be pretty poor quality but look new. Great.
This car in particular we're talking about is probably the highest priced 308 in the world right now for a steel GTB. So I think it has something to do with market price.
