f12, like new, daily driver, usa, depreciation

Hey guys.

I was set on a 458, drove an f12 last night, and I want to buy it. The exact one I drove. Around 300k. Perfect spec for my tastes. Absolutely, utterly, perfect.

I want to drive this car 15k miles every year. Maybe more. The only other car I own is a Raptor truck for hunting and hauling my boat; F car will be my daily. I have no interest in some 5 series or whatever to rack up the miles for the daily commute; I live in Fl, I have cancer, I don't know what I have left, I see no reason I can't use this car 365.

I don't know how long I want to keep it. Technology being what it is, I find estimations of when the next "gotta have it" thing will come along to be a trivial exercise. To this end I'll only say the 488 doesn't sound appealing.

I've done the 101 in regards to depreciation. I'm not making this thread because I'm too lazy to do a Google Search. In my opinion the data of 5 years past cannot be compared to five years future. Hence the more analog approach to "research" is kinda useless.

So I'm seeking opinions. If I drive this monster to 80-90k, what is your gut best-guess at where I'll be if I want to sell it in 2020? I use the word "gut" for a reason. I know it's a guess. So many variables, such a volatile time for cars.

There are a lot of bright people here, I can think of no better place to ask a rather difficult question.

Thanks for your time.

 

sorry to hear about the cancer, wishing you the best.

my relatively informed WAG is in 5 years with 80k+ miles, that car would be $125-150k.

 

Making the following assumption:
Over the 5-year 75-90K use horizon, you would invest c. $50K to keep the car up to snuff (full body wrap to protect paint, frequent detailing so as to keep interior and exterior in good shape, replace key drivetrain components as needed or suggested by factory....) you should be able to sell for ~ 120K. Basis: Normal 5-year Ferrari depreciation for owners is 50%. Now subtract 30K ($0.5 per mile) for the mileage. This gives roughly $120K. But there could be surprises. Suppose Ferrari does not continue to produce NA V12s in the F12 replacement .... etc. etc. the car could be worth more.

 

Question is, where did you find F12 for $300k?

 

Sorry to hear about your cancer Like to wish you the best possible outcome

As far as the F12 goes just do it my friend

 

Yep.

 

also sorry to hear about your illness but love your attitude

F12 is an amazing car, so enjoy it.

Plan on depreciation at 100% over 5 years. Assume ZERO return. Then, whatever it might be worth is upside....

I do agree, keep it mechanically perfect and cosmetically pristine - you'll enjoy it more that way anyway.

Good luck. The more miles, the more smiles.

As I've said in many posts, I'd rather brag about how many miles i've driven than what my trade-in value was. Too much talk about depreciation - this is a car forum, not a finance board!

 

same here, wholesale on higher mile ones is circa 330k--- 2014's

 

Sorry to hear about the cancer. My dad had major colon cancer surgery a few months ago. What the whole ordeal taught me was to enjoy what you have today. Don't take for granted that tomorrow you will have time to do what you want to do today.

My advice? Buy it. Drive it. Take care of it. Even if it's not worth as much as a low mileage car when it's time to sell, you won't have any regrets.

 

Best of luck with your health issues.

If you were to lease from F credit, the resid would be approx. 50% plus a $1.75 per mile penalty for mileage over 3,500 per year (paid at the end). Factor in the miles penalty, and you can likely use this as an estimate of the net resid at the end of 5 years.

This is the number F uses for their closed end leases, so I imagine it is pretty conservative.

All the best on all fronts.

 

I also wish you best of luck with your health issues.

Buy that F12 and drive the F___ out of it.

 

Buy it! Regarding depreciation, look at what a 2009 599 GTB (5 to 6 years old) is worth with similar kms/miles to what you are planning to do and work backwards.

 

Buy the car - write off that money and any that comes back to you in 5 years is a bonus.
Good luck :0)

 

This is just the perfect way to get rid forever of the depreciation issue.

 

Im truly sorry to hear of your condition. I hope you beat it!!!

As to the car I think Entropy has the safest approach.

My opinion is $80k.

The reason is it will be worth something, but the miles will scare off just about everyone. Dealers won't touch it. So that will leave private buyers, someone looking for a deal. In 2020 most F12s on the market probably will have 10-20k miles on them, and probably priced around 150k. Maybe even a little less. I know it seems absurd, but like you said you don't want to drive some 5 series. I understand.

This is the price of actually using your Ferrari. So, like Entropy said, assume it will be utterly worthless, and then the $80k or so you get for it in 5 years is all bonus.

 

If you look at FML you will see that 550's bottomed out around $75k....the highest mileage 599 (a 2010) with 37k mileage was offered for sale at probably a $35-50k discount from other 599s. drive the heck out of it, enjoy it, and maintain it well and you will probably find yourself worrying less about resale with every enjoyable blip when you downshift. Be well/

 

So sorry to hear about your condition. Sounds like you've got a great attitude about it and that's three quarters of the battle. Other people with more knowledge than me have already voiced many opinions on future value of the F12. I just traded my GTO on an F12. It arrived yesterday. If I waited a year the GTO probably would be worth 100,000.00 more and the F12 30,000 less. So what. I want it now. I take care of the Jewish cemetery in our town so I end up at many funerals if just to unlock & lock afterwards. One thing I've yet to see is any money in the hole. Lots of smirking kids, grand kids, etc. waiting for the $$$$$. As dcmetro said -buy it and drive the f*** out of it. Personally I'll know I've timed it right if the check for my funeral bounces.

 

quote of the year!

congrats on the F12.

 

This thread has been most helpful. I'm very grateful for the wisdom and the well wishes.

Thanks guys. Sincerely.

 

The F12 will be a magical car, definitely do it! Best of luck in the fight, prayers out to you and the family!

 

80-90K miles in 2020?

Unpredictably low due to how little demand there will be for it. You will probably have to take one of the few offers you get for it. My guess is around $75K if you're lucky.

 

Wow. At that estimate you could part it out for several times as much!

 

Well, you can buy early 599s with 25K miles for round $120K. At 90K miles, assuming it wasn't paid for already, the future repairs potential could be enormous. Engine, transmission, CCBs, suspension components -- all could need major work in the blink of an eye.

Just too risky to buy such a high mileage car when you could buy a much lower one that will be 100x easier to sell and less likely to need significant repairs. Better to lose on depreciation of a low mileage car than lose on repairs of a high mileage one.

 

Part it out for several times ? - Don't think so

 

I've been checking the price (where available) of body panels (upper and lower), hatchback, interiors, glass, suspension, drivetrain, AC, radiator, wheels, calipers, even small stuff like shields, gauges, knobs, parts inside the doors, ECUs, steering wheel, airbags, carbon parts, seat components, etc. The prices are galactic and then you add shipping and almost no suppliers. With a car just 5 years old I think you could do quite well parting it out compared to the stated estimate. Perhaps not several times as you point out but still much better. My original point was I thought the estimate was low enough to consider other options.

I also find it fascinating when cross checking part numbers how many parts are common between cars that others swear share almost no parts.