is the bubble due to burst?

Sorry, I'm only now seeing this.

Look, if the Diablo was my dream car, the prices wouldn't deter me one bit if the right one came about. It's not some massive swing in prices for something that I definitely love and the money is fine and in line with that car. The issue I have is that I'm not sure that I would love it so I don't really feel like buying at those prices for something that I might have for a year and just think, "meh." So if you love it as you just posted, go buy it.

It's not that I feel that they're bad buys. It's that I'm not sure I want to jump into the fray to buy something I may or may not love when it's the hot car at the moment. You drove one and said you loved it and "would love to own one." That right there is a good reason to buy one, regardless of price.

Again, I am well known for saying this: if it's your dream car and you can afford it, just buy it already. Life is too short.

If you're not buying it to flip it, any downturn in values will be irrelevant to you.

 

Interesting and well voiced comments all. I think, however, that merely by being FChatters the people expressing themselves here tend to be more emotional and passionate about cars, while a speculator probably sees a collector car as a more of a commodity.
The fellow who "fell in love with the Dino", the person who wanted a Countach because of the Alpine stereo poster, the Esprit junkie who first saw it in a Bond movie ... all of these folks are enthusiasts. If they are also owners, the eventuality of rare items increasing in value also makes them investors to some degree, but it doesn't make them speculators.

One great aspect of enthusiasts in a skyrocketing market is that they should be more likely to properly restore old cars. After all, if it costs $15,000 to de-rust and properly paint a Mercedes 280 SL, then a lot more people will undertake that expenditure if the car's worth will be $35,000 when it's completed. Therefore, we should see more enthusiastic (there's that word again) preservation of old cars, and this is good for all of us who love them even if we're just admiring them from the sidewalk.

 

+1 David ..... The more great ferraris that are properly restored and therefore saved for future generations, the better. As long as they are still able to be seen from the sidewalk, and not just behind velvet ropes, of course!
BR,
Jez

 

The one thing we also have to realize is that the world is a fickle place. What is hot today may not be so hot tomorrow. That could affect the market. I own classic cars and love them but keeping them running is not easy. When some people who just bought because of the recent hype realize this, the market may chance. Each of us have to decide what is best. For me at the moment keep the current classics and buy newer but not new ferraris to lesson my risk but yet keep up my hobby. I may be wrong but that is my plan

 

Very similar to golf though,,,not easy and expensive. Still there is demand there while no upside.

What I am trying to say is that at some level of wealth, classic car collecting is a lifestyle element and not just an investment instrument.

Those will remain ,,unless private property is confiscated or regulations make it impossible to drive even on private circuit. But bar the Mad Max scenario there will still be demand albeit at reduced scale. This may not support current level, but there are still people even if you tell them that market will crash who would buy a GTO at the 2000 prices. They will hope it bounce back and possibly it would.

While tastes have changed and Picasso and Modigliani are the most expensive, Vermeer and Rembrandt are still not affordable for most as those who own them,,keep them.

 

the ironic part of this thread is that it is titled "bubble" yet it is on ferrari chat and being discussed by people passionate about vintage ferrari cars which are pretty much blue chips of the car world. it is very clear that in terms of vintage ferrari there is no bubble. bubble implies something that can pop go down 75+% and never come back. slim chance thats is a going to happen.

are there cars out there that have been bought for 1.6mln 1 year ago that if the owner really had an urgent need to sell tomorrow he may only get 1.1 mln for in q quick sale ? sure I think there are many examples of this in cars over the past 12 months. this probably applies to some that top ticked 300sl prices for not great examples or even f40's. but that type of spread is more bid /ask spread of buying at auction vs having to sell wholesale quick combined with typical price fluctuations up and down not a bubble.

if there are any signs of mini bubbles it is in more modern special edition stuff, some modern f cars, and certainly more in porsche land and other marks other than ferrari... (think 500k 993 turbos, think 500k gt3 rs cars etc etc) I think the one market without these signs of true bubble are the classic vintage f cars..

 

Look at the Ferrari Market in 1989. Look at it in 1990. IMO that is a bubble.

 

....amongst the 479 wise advices and predictions there are probably 2-3 spot on. These will be highlighted and the persons who made the predictions will be "hear heared" and receive infinite fame and wisdom.

Ciao
Oscar

 

how about this

when dinos, 512s, diablos, f40s and 288s are down 80% you guys can come back and post "told you so"

until then, find something else to do/complain about

 

+1 ...... pointless posts, of absolutely no value or meaningful content ...by the same 2 or 3 guys!

 

Unfortunately I won't be around to read their "told you so" posts because I'll be too busy emptying my war chest on a 288 GTO, second F40 (LM for the second one), Diablo, and maybe a 512M if I have room.

Shoot, then I'll be back up to 9 cars again and have the same problem (out of room and too many cars to enjoy) that I had this last year when I sold some cars to thin the herd. Meh, I'll just add the 288.

Bring on the 80% correction!!!! WOOOOOOOOOO!!!

 

imho, these types of threads are epidemic of the nanny state mentality in our country...

no bell is going to ring at the bottom and/or top. the consensus view can and will shift at anytime. learn to think for yourself and make your own decisions.

looking for affirmation of your purchases and purchase price level ?

if 100% of the users on this thread agreed it was a bubble or at that low... would it really be ? would it matter ?

 

exactly

 

Questioning conventional "wisdom" is the antithesis of the nanny state. Discussion about things - from everyone, high and low, is the antithesis of the nanny state; it's people making up their minds.

Nanny state's have market makers who dictate conversation and market terms.

 

not what i see here.... thread starts with a premise and is looking for affirmation of that believe....

i was referring to nanny state in the sense that one cannot make up there own mind... they need the collective to determine for them.

 

more interesting....

assume 100% true - it is in fact a bubble.....

how many will go and and sell their cars ?

 

I gotta agree here, some of the prices right now for the modern stuff is even WORSE than the classic Ferraris. I mean you could at least make a small case for the price spikes on some of the Enzo era Ferraris, but like you said when 993 Turbos start being slapped with $400-$500K price tags and Ford GTs at $300-$400K that just SCREAMS bubble. I mean come the f*ck on! It's a Ford for christ's sake! I don't care how fast it goes and that 4,000 were made (still not exactly a "rare" car compared to other low production sports cars), hell the newer Corvette ZR1s/ZO6s can eat the Ford GT alive around the track and it's a $50-70K car. Some of these modern Porsches and especially the Ford GT are due for a massive price drop when the bubble pops in the coming years for these newer "flavor of the month" sports cars.

 

Very good question. I think it all depends on two things. How much is the owner attached to the vehicle? How boozy and out of touch is the "market price"?

Let's be realistic here. Let's say somebody calls you tomorrow with an offer for your 308. You tell the buyer you're not that motivated to sell or don't want to sell. The buyer offers you 280,000 for it. What do you do?

 

Nothing.
I don't need the money, and any other early Ferrari that would interest me is going to cost a lot more. So doing nothing is fine with me. I like driving the GTB, I like the looks and sound and prefer it to my other more modern Ferrari's.
Perhaps the value will go up, perhaps it will go down, don't really care, other people can worry about that. I didn't buy the car ( 17 years ago) with the expectation of a price increase, it was all about having a car that I'd wanted for a long time. I guess lots of people must feel the same way, because there are so few carby cars on the market.

And just to feed the price discussion, a recent auction sale of a 308 Vetro
Bonhams
Bonhams : One of only 712 produced,1976 Ferrari 308GT Berlinetta Vetroresina Chassis no. F106AB 19699 ? Engine no. F106A 021 00327)

 

Fair enough. This owner of 26 years however, does not share the same sentiment, nor did the owner of the carb car that was mentioned.

Porsche 911 Speedster Convertible 2 Door | eBay

https://www.hagerty.com/valuationtools/HVT/VehicleSearch/Report?vbe=77079

And the message is further illustrated. Tired thread.

 

^^^^^^ as the owner of the speedster....

that car is fairly priced

 

Why did you never drive it?

 

After 72 pages of financial debate,the markets,the stocks,the ex rates,the bubbles over the last 30 years,what is the point in gazing into your particular crystal ball ? We all know where this is going...just like houses/stocks/art/cars....they are drifting up,and that is the end of it. Bombproof!.