It seems the market has really changed

I'm failing to see the relevance. It was intended to be basic transportation, not a luxury.

Duesenberg of the same vintage is still desirable last time I checked.

 

And over priced today.

There's a lot of Dino's out there and a lot of them that are painted over rust buckets.

Let the buyer beware.

People are buying them because they are "hot". I remember when they said that about muscle cars, and Ford Mustang Shelby's

This is the problem with speculation. You buy it because you want it to go up or you fear it will go up. As soon as someone reaches the top, there's a slide back down the mountain.

A Dino should be worth the price of it's restoration if in good condition. That's about 200-250K.

 

+1 They made almost 5 mill Model As.....About 650ish Duesenbergs and 8000ish 348s.

 

I peg my currency on the Dino. As the Dino goes, so goes the 308, 328, 355, 550, etc.

-F

 

Agree. The actual value of a Dino IMO is 180-220k

Keyword, TODAY. A 308 GT4 has been out of production since 1976. Name one other time other than now that the masses have all been wanting to buy a 308 GT4. This is every bit as odd as the value increase in the Dino. If it were indeed a star, I think it would have come forward already, it's been 40 years.

There's a funny scene in Oliver Stone's Wall Street. When Charlie Sheen realizes that Michael Douglas pulled the wool over his eyes and liquidated his dad's company behind his back, he lashes back with some good rhetoric on asset bubbles. Points to a painting he bought cheap, describes its astonishing price increase. "The Illusion has become real, and the more real it becomes, the more desperate they want it"

It's not the car that these people are chasing, it's (as THEMAYOR stated) the fear of the car's value rising in some, and the greed in many others causing them to speculate them up. These people just can't help themselves for some reason. Both people are running on pure emotion and next to no logic. And both are not even considering for one second the alternative, that the market will drop.

Also, I've always conceded that the Testarossa was undervalued, and predicted it to go up which it did with the economy. I'm neighbors with Hillary Raab. If you don't know who he is, google him. Probably one of the biggest Ferrari historians there is. Owns two 250 Californias and tons of pre-war cars. When I told him my Testarossa value theory back in early 13, stating it was undervalued and would be very valuable someday. You know what he said? "NOT IN THIS LIFETIME". He could be wrong, but I'm starting to doubt that he is. The car has EVERYTHING it takes to be wildly valuable, but at the end of the day there are too many still available.

Real talk..

 

+1.

 

"Dino bucket", is there a steel body car from the late 60's early 70"s
that"s not a rust bucket ?.

 

This. Someone has probably already reached the top on most of the cars being discussed here.

It's so hard to buy when things are low, and so much harder to sell when they're high and rising. You don't want to get off that rocket or miss out forever on easy money or the opportunity to own the car you've always wanted.

IMHO, the real collector cars were largely done by 1974, when we got smog controls, big and then painted plastic bumpers, and then robotized assembly with the 348/onward. There's an intrinsic long-term value to those earlier cars, quality of materials and method of manufacture, that is absent in an F12 or 360.

That doesn't mean I think modern Ferraris will ever be worthless, but they are massively overpriced right now for what they are -- aging, complicated cars that aren't all that rare. I wouldn't put serious money (and the definition of that will vary by the individual) into anything later than a 308/328.

Maybe the Boxer, which is the only blue chip car on your list. Although even the prices on those are optimistic at the moment. Good time to be an owner or seller.

From my vantage it looks like the market has gone slightly nuts. The serious hardware -- 911 Carrera RS 2.7, Daytonas, Miuras, early Countachs, F40s, etc. -- has all gone into orbit, and the rest of the market is picking over the scraps (modern stuff with badges). Vintage has been unobtainable for a while - I remember thinking that a $200K 356 Carrera 2 was overpriced. Now $200K might get me a ride in one...

 

Markets are what they are.

Calling something "overpriced" means that your perception of value is rooted in opinion based on history.

From an absolute scale, current successful sales establish current market value.

And like mutual funds, history is no guarantee of future success (or failure).

 

Hopefully that a a "yet".

 

Now maybe its because I am in the business... and maybe it should be important because I am in the business.

This statement could not get any more wrong if you said the sky was yellow.

More and more people are appreciating the classics.

Why do you think the prices are going up on virtually every classic car? Especially the ferraris! If new cars were in more demand than classic cars then.... every ferrari built from about the 328 or newer would be at or above sticker price... which they are not. (one 599 does not make a market)

The prices of classic ferraris have soared and it is because they are in massive demand.

Look at every classic car auction house. Their sales get more and more successful. Not less and less.

The classic car market is on fire and thats because there are more buyers. Not just more buyers willing to pay more. More buyers.

Classic cars are being looked at as an alternative asset. Whether or not they should is another debate. Regardless... they are. There are plenty of cars that have grossly out perfromed the stock market (Im not saying the stock market is a bad thing).

You honestly couldn't be more wrong with your they aren't making any more people who appreciate the classics.

I guess thats why vinyl records, vintage t shirts and even reclaimed items are the rage... because everyone hates old things... and wants shiny new things

 

Yes, just keep promoting that so I can keep driving mine without worry (that it'll become a collectible).

 

They don't bring the same money they used to however. Desirable yes, I Personally would love to have one, and I'm 40. (Damn..I'm 40? WTF). That means when I joined this site I was 27!!! Ugh...

 

It's called a trend. Asset bubbles show up in all shapes and forms over time. This is just the same thing, different day. Remember the housing bubble when people kept saying, "they're not making oceanfront property anymore?" I hear the same thing about classic cars. "they're not making them anymore" What a great insight LOL

Also, most of the population is not fixated on classic cars. Yes there are a good amount of gear-heads out there. But generally, most do not care about classic cars, or they do like them but chose not to own for financial reasons. Just look around you or in the area you live. How many people in a neighborhood of let's say 50-200 houses anywhere in America, own a vintage car? Not many. I can't tell you how many times I've gone on a date with the 550 maranello, and the girl didn't pay any attention to or care about the car. There's no way to back up a claim that more and more people "are appreciating the classics". And if it were true, the prices would be rising still, yet they are levelling off and falling. The only action I see is the crap on TV overseas. That's not indicitive of the US market. Also, if what you're saying is true, then literally overnight, an enormous amount of people started liking classics and were suddenly willing to buy classic cars. The ridiculous 3.5x price increase happened in a year and half. The supply didn't dry up, the demand increased a bit. While the auction houses started blowing air into the bubble and boom. Then the brokers saw what was going on and decided to get their taste, and Here we are. I guess dealer asking prices are always 2-3x the auction value. Yeah right. Smoke and mirrors. Behind every bubble there is somebody hyping it. And the auction houses and brokers are the ones who did it, not the demand. Also, I went to the last Mecum auction in Indianapolis. IT's usually very busy, lot's of action. The auction in May? GHOST-TOWN.

 

We tend to do that alot in America

My Econ teacher in College told me whenever you hear the words "it's going to be different this time" Hang on to your ass!

 

Gents,
How many Ferraris have been built since the beginning of time? I seem to recall the number is around 150k (Someone will get us the real figure no doubt). I am certain there are more than 150k people out there that want a Ferrari, ANY Ferrari, than there are Ferraris available. People buy the dream before they get the first repair bill.

With that said, I admit I bought my 456M because I thought the prices were starting to rise; but I didn't buy the car as an investment. I just wanted a beautiful, nice distinctive car for my wife to drive. I wanted something she could ENJOY without worrying about putting on a few miles. Yes it is an automatic. Yes it is comfortable. Yes my teenagers are happy to sit in the two back seats.

What's wrong with buying a 12,000 mile car for 20% of the new price and just enjoying it? Let's drive and appreciate the cars for what they are. If they hold their value great. If not, stand on the gas pedal and smile...

 

1. A 550 isn't a classic car. It's a car from the late 1990s. A nice car from the 1990s, but not classic.
2. The population of classic cars (generally pre-1975) is actually pretty small relative to the current population, so you don't need every 200th person to own one to make a dent in the supply. Early Porsche 911s and 356s and Dino 246s aren't all that rare by the standards of their era. But, enough of them were crashed or rusted away that the supply of decent ones is fixed and limited, because cars of that era weren't really preserved the way something like a 550 or 599 might be -- almost no one actually drives 599 GTOs or Alonso editions, for example. They live under covers in climate controlled garages and get driven around the block once in a while. They will always be available in perfect condition, provided the electronics are rebuildable. Real GTOs from the 1960s were raced and in some cases used quite hard. Look at the prices for relatively common but classic European two seaters like a Merc 280 SL or Porsche 356 A coupe -- the generation that grew up with them is largely retired from the market, but demand is strong and prices have risen quite a bit. Why? Because there's nothing made now that compares to either car for charm, simplicity, durability and infinite restorability (provided we always have steel, leather, and wood...)
3. Girls don't generally care about cars. Yes, there are exceptions, but not many. It's nice to meet a girl who does, but if you're using female interest in a vehicle as a barometer of the classic car market, everything would be valued at or near scrap.

 

I agree it isn't classic, but the auctions and brokers are hyping it as such in the present for some reason.

 

+1

 

1975 is the new cut off dates for classics?
Seems like it was 1967 not long ago. And 1940 for the longest time before that.

Funny how it keeps creeping up.

 

I could back up the claim: "more and more people are appreciating the classics" if we have attendance data from all the classic car events around the world. I don't have the data so I can't prove or disprove it- but anecdotally I strongly suspect interest in these cars has never been stronger. Could it all change tomorrow? You betcha.

How about this- there is a vibrant market for vinyl records yet we all know CDs are superior (haha Im sure someone will comment on this) and streaming is the future. Yet there are many people who just prefer the "classic" nature (and sound?) of vinyl.

Who really knows. I don't. I just know I love this stuff. If it all goes to 0 tomorrow, I'll just get some more.

 

....listening to records
....listening to records
....listening to records
....listening to records
....listening to records
....listening to records


Sorry, I just couldn't resist.
My father always used the expression "sound like a broken record". Today I'm tempted to use it but most people under 40 wouldn't know what it meant.