It seems the market has really changed

Shock horror, the market is hyped. A bit like saying the sun is hot. But the fact is there is more wealth and more millionaires than ever before especially the huge growth in Asia. So while cars will be high risk as investments, the global market today is different from any other time.

 

You're not wrong about the huge growth in Asia.

A LOT of the Ferraris being sold in Australia are going to Hong Kong apparently.

Mainly 308s, they can't seem to get enough of them.

My 348 was bought new in the UK, then went to Hong Kong in 2003 before it came to Australia.

It might be time to sell it back to them.......for $200K.

 

it will be interesting to see what happens once China has relaxed its importation rules.
( if it happens in our lifetime, this is mainland China afterall)

 

What do you expect once they relax the import rules Dr?

I think I know what you mean, but can please share what your thoughts are.

 

Don't forget the superiority of Tube (especially OTL and SET) amps over the harsh and unnatural sounding transistor-based amps.

 

Again, this verbatim is being repeated over and over in these threads. Is it really though?

 

For the few that do not know the regs in China, importation of cars more than one year okd is banned.
If those rules are relaxed or removed entirely, then the market for cheap exotics has increased hugely.
More people wanting to buy, but the number of cars is the same.

 

In theory yes. In reality, who knows.

 

If they relax the rules - of course it will happen. Just as many petrolheads in China as anywhere else.
You will see!

 

"Of course it will happen" LOLS. What great reasoning and logic

 

Reasoning and logic has nothing to do in car owning.
If we all did we would not own a Ferrari, but a Ford for everyday driving and a MX5 for enjoyment.

 

Welcome to the bubble. A place where reason and logic are nowhere to be found

 

Yes, and some people will: lie and lie and deny and tell you its true.

 

To be clear, I buy my cars to drive. It's taken many years of hard work and a bit of luck to enjoy the cars I now have. And enjoy them I do.

While I'm happy values have shot up, I have no interest in selling so it's academic to me (actually it's costing me more because of increased insurance).

So with the above disclaimer out of the way, Brad, this time around it's way different.

1. Global wealth. It may not feel it for many (a serious social issue but not for here) but the world has never been more "rich". Global wealth is at an all time high.

2. QE/interest rates. For reasons we all know central banks have pumped in huge quantities of cash into the system. And while talk of rate rises is real, borrowing is still and will be for some time incredibly low.

3. Tech. In January 2007 the late great Steve Jobs held up the first iphone and announced "this will change everything". It has. 50% of the planet has a smartphone. There are more sim cards in active use than there are humans on the planet. 500m pics are uploaded to facebook every day, more pics were taken last year by people than in the entire history of humanity. More data is being transfered by phone than ever - something like 4 exabytes. Which will rise to 25 exabytes by 2020.

The world has changed beyond recognition and you can't even see it. I don't mean that as a dig, the tech firms don't want you to see it. And the rate of change is accelerating.

Add to this Ferrari's brilliance in managing its brand, new product and its classics, and yes definitely, the world is a very different place. The transfer of knowledge, opinion, cars for sale, price sensitivity, myth or otheriwse, is now at a touch of a small screen in your pocket. For sure values might go down and just one look at social and geopolitical issues shows nothing today can be taken for granted. IMO this is a different world.

 

I buy my cars for the same reasons as you, and you make great points. However, the "this time is different" talk is nothing new. Has the internet and wealth ranks changed as you said? Absolutely. Is the climate here to stay? And will these factors sustain these prices? Time will tell, but the prices have already dipped significantly. Auction results in the US confirm this. I posted the links before on the Countach and Dinos that were both clean cars run at auction in the past two months. Countach failed to fetch more than 200 grand, and the Dino sold for 231k. None of us can know for certain what will happen. I'm just merely pointing out the symptoms nothing more.

 

We are too fat to fit in a Countach. Or have a really stiff lower back like I have.....

 

The dates tend to correspond to US safety and emissions regs. 1975 was a terrible year in terms of bumper and smog requirements. (In fact, 1975 is the cutoff year California uses for emissions testing -- 1975 and earlier cars are exempt. A 1976 Ferrari 308 has to pass a biennial smog test. Now and forever, apparently.)

You can go back earlier -- Jag E-Types lost their covered headlamps probably around 1966-67. Porsche had to raise the bumper height and headlamp height on the 356 in 1959, and had to add overriders (a la VW Beetle...) in mid-1956.

But the 1973-75 period was the biggest faultline. A 1973 Porsche 911 is very highly regarded, while the "accordion-bumpered" 1974 models are less sought. A 1975 MGB is positively the worst you can buy, due to single carburetion, jacked up ride height and huge black rubber bumpers. A 1975 Corvette is the most gutless year of the series - big plastic bumpers and maybe 180 bhp. Ferrari sold itself to Fiat and ended the Daytona and Dino 246 all within a few years, pulling the plug on two cars that are now iconic. Choose between a 1974 Countach and a 1984 Countach, when it became a caricature of itself.

Essentially, things kept going downhill in terms of design and mechanical purity, so you can pick your own cutoff. I chose an April build date 1956 Porsche because I hate the US overriders. I like the '72 911s because they avoid the rubber bumper blocks that came in 1973. The Merc R107 series SLs are emerging as collectible, while the 1990s edition is just a cheap used car that costs more to maintain than to send mercifully to the crusher. I avoid collecting post-1990 cars because of the awful motorized seat belts or airbags, that defaced steering wheels forever. (Doesn't mean I don't drive newer cars... but they're not keepers.)

Maybe in 20 years we'll look at all the body-colored plastic trim, carbon fibre, sticky plastic switchgear, 2000s-vintage digital instruments, airbags, etc., and think they, too, are classic. But IMHO the more recent stuff isn't going to age gracefully, and I suspect the run-up in values on cars like the 300 SL, 280 SL, Dino 246, Porsche 356 et al is because buyers see a chasm between late model used cars and cars from the heyday of European sports car manufacture. Even the 250 GTE 2+2, which I remember used to be an also-ran in the vintage Ferrari market, has huge estimates at Gooding's Monterey sale next month. That's not a poster car, but a chance to buy a piece of history and art.

So, 1975 has been etched in the automotive timeline almost since 1975, when we all realized everything had changed. If we're going into a downturn, I would still put my money in the earlier stuff and leave the 599 special editions for those with a stomach for the rise and fall.

 

The Chinese have been buying up top rated French and Italian wine now for close to a decade. High end European properties have been sold to Chinese persons or Chinese entities.
There are several collections of Classic and Vintage cars in London, owned by Chinese living most of the year back home.
You just wait and see what The Chinese Tiger is capable of.......

Once upon a time, post WW2, when my dad was young and in his 20, you could get a used Bugatti or any other used high end cars for nothing.

The Bubble we are talking about, maybe it is just a fairly normal state of things, and the period before it was a period of undervaluation due to economic bad times??

Vintage cars of any value or make, are after all Luxury goods we do not need.

 

I would agree that most Americans are to fat to fit in a Countach. (Myself included)

 

I am also a tube guy so I can relate to what you are saying. I also tried some solid state amps they claimed were tube like sounding. I never could hear that listening to them. I guess I'll just stick with my tube amps and put up with the maintenance that goes along with that. In the meantime I need to buy a new cartridge for my turntable. This audio hobby can get very expensive though it's cheaper than an engine out service on a Ferrari.

 

Just finished listening to Between the Buttons by the stones on vinyl.

 

Very cool!

 

Thanks for the explanation mate.

 

I am going to keep this simple.

To call the entire classic car market a bubble is just plain ignorant. Plain and simple.

To compare the entire market to the housing market is ignorant. There were so many more factors in the housing market, mainly free candy.

There is no free candy in the classic world. Most are being purchased in cash.

I will agree and say that some cars are in a bubble such as porsches etc... but only time will tell if thats true.

And as far as classic car prices leveling off... I don't find that to be true. Prices are still climbing on plenty.

What cars went up 3.5 times there price? Porsches? Yes I agree with you. A bubble on those is likely. but again, most classic cars did not go up 3.5 times.

ANYTHING ANYTHING ANYTHING that goes up 3.5 times in a short period of time could be considered a bubble. But not all classics did.

As far as the auction houses and the brokers hyping things... at the price point that you are talking about (several hundred thousand to multiples of millions) these people are not easily swayed by flashy salesmen etc... they have seen it all and go those millions by being good with there money. Sure they screw up like the rest of us every now and then... but they can afford the hit. A friend of mine is the genius who bought the gullwing at barret for about 2.5 million. Did he over pay? Yes. WHen he sells it... will he lose? likely. Will it change his life or keep him from buying another classic... Nope.

To call the classic car world in its entirety is ignorant.

If you want to scream and shout about over valued things... id start with Tesla stock.